NFL DFS Picks: Week 5 Main Slate DraftKings Breakdown

With bye weeks now beginning, we’re down to an 11-game slate in Week 5 — with one massive standout game that will dictate how we approach the slate.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud: Jared Goff ($6,600) Detroit Lions (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals (54.5 Total)

Nearly every position this week has a Lions player as either the highest-projected option or the best value, with a Cardinals player filling the other role. That’s because Lions/Cardinals has a 54.5 total, eight points higher than any other game on the slate, and is a perfect storm of fantasy potential that checks nearly every box.

Per this tweet from JMToWin, games with totals seven or more points above the rest of the slate produced the most DraftKings points on four of seven occasions and ranked in the top three in scoring every time. While targeting the second- or third-best game is often a strong strategy, this week is a completely different animal given the gap between Lions/Cardinals and everything else.

That brings us back to Goff, whose Lions are favored by 5.5 points. At this point, I’m sure the Lions’ coaching staff will adjust to their terrible defense by putting their foot on the gas and attacking early. That would be a departure from their approach so far this season: playing a ball-control game early and attacking late. Detroit ranks 4th in points per game but 26th in first-quarter points per game. That’s been the only real downside to rostering Goff so far – you’ve basically got three quarters of strong play rather than four.

This game is in a dome against a bad defense, with the Lions implied for 30 points. Goff is clearly the best QB play, and I’ll have as much of him as possible in tournaments.

Value: Jacoby Brissett ($5,500) Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) vs. Detroit Lions (54.5 Total)

The most likely QB to unseat Goff from the top spot is his opponent, Jacoby Brissett. Brissett and the Cardinals are underdogs, but that should only boost their throwing rate against the NFL’s worst defense in fantasy points allowed to QBs, WRs, and TEs. That would be every position involved in the passing attack.

Brissett ranks second in median and ceiling projections this week but 11th in salary, making him a massive value. He has, by far, the best Pts/Sal projection of any player on the slate and is an obvious cash-game play who should be at least $1,000 more expensive. The combination of matchup and game environment is elite, and we’re currently projecting Brissett for about half the ownership of Goff.

Brissett is a cash-game lock, with the only argument against him in tournaments being that the Cardinals’ offense is very condensed. Two players make up more than 56% of the Cardinals’ targets, so it’s easier to get exposure to all the points from this game by rostering Goff at QB with those two Arizona players than vice versa. Detroit’s top two passing-game options account for 46% of their targets, which is still solid but obviously a bit lower.

Obviously, rostering either QB and stacking this game means leaning into high ownership, but the best option might be getting unique in other spots.

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Quick Hits

Joe Burrow ($6,900): The Bengals lead the league in PROE and have a solid 25-point team total, second only to the Lions in Week 5. The potential issue is that both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are questionable, and the Bengals are heavily favored. If one or, especially both, miss, I won’t be interested in Burrow. But if either of his top options is active, a Burrow single stack could be a high-upside contrarian option while the field loads up on the Lions-Cardinals game.

Jayden Daniels ($6,000): I highlighted the positive matchup for the Commanders’ passing game in my line play article earlier this week, which is one reason Daniels could be a viable pivot from Goff and Brissett. The other is his rushing upside, which neither of those players offers much of. It’s not a great time to bet on him running in his first week back from a dislocated left (non-throwing) elbow. But that also makes him a “play it before you see it” candidate and another sneaky pivot from the chalk.

Jameis Winston ($4,800): Last week, with Winston and the Giants forced to throw, we got the classic Jameis experience. Three touchdowns, two interceptions, and 60 total points in the game. This week, he’s facing the Commanders, whom we just touched on, and Daniels playing well could force a similar situation. Jameis is an extreme long shot to outscore Goff or Brissett, but could he stay close enough while leaving you enough salary to load up on the other stars from that game? Possibly.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks