NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 5

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

The Data

With four weeks of data under our belt, we now have matchup-adjusted figures. One effect of that is that it smoothes the data at the edges — the highs aren’t quite as high and the lows aren’t quite as low. The bigger impact, though, is that the data is considerably more reliable as a measure of per-play efficiency, making it more useful for DFS.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Minnesota Vikings OL (#1 in Adjusted Line Yards) vs. New Orleans Saints DL

The Saints defensive line numbers are a bit skewed after the Falcons ran all over them on Monday Night Football in Week 4, leaving them ranked dead last in adjusted line yards allowed. Still, the 5.9 yards per attempt Atlanta put up against the Saints was their highest in any game, and the Saints have allowed nearly 150 total rushing yards per game.

That’s especially helpful this week, since the Vikings have been leaning on Aaron Jones ($6,500) as a true workhorse back. He’s seen at least 23 total opportunities in each of the last three weeks, with decent usage in both the run and pass game depending on the game script and whether Justin Jefferson is available.

This week, Minnesota is a slight favorite at the Superdome, which should allow for a fairly run-based attack, especially if Jefferson remains out of commission. The matchup should also boost Jones’ efficiency. If Jefferson misses again, Jones will be one of the top RB plays on the board. Even with Jefferson active, this is a good spot for the Vikings back.

Washington Commanders OL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. New York Giants DL

Jayden Daniels ($6,000) has returned to practice this week after dislocating his left (non-throwing) elbow late in Week 2. This could be a dream scenario for the former Rookie of the Year to return, considering the Giants’ complete lack of a pass rush this season.

With Brian Burns done for the year, the G-Men have produced a league-low three sacks through four games, making them the only team to average fewer than one per contest. While there’s an argument that the lack of pressure takes away from Daniels’ rushing upside because he’ll be less likely to need to scramble, he’ll probably be somewhat protective of his injured arm anyway.

That means we could get Daniels with plenty of clean pockets, a depressed price after missing some time, and very low ownership thanks to concerns about his injury. His ownership likely depends on whether and when Washington officially declares him active this week, so it’s worth keeping an eye on the news heading into the weekend.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Cincinnati Bengals DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Miami Dolphins OL

The Dolphins have quickly replaced the Browns as the clear team to target with opposing defenses, and the lucky unit this week is Cincinnati ($3,500). The Bengals are especially interesting because they’ve generated a solid pass rush even against competent NFL teams, with 14 sacks (third-best in the league) and a top-five adjusted sack rate through three games.

Spending up on defense is always a bit of a crapshoot. We can reasonably project pressure, but not always whether it will turn into turnovers or defensive touchdowns. Miami ranks in the middle of the pack in turnovers this year, but that’s somewhat noisy. Plus, with the Bengals heavily favored, the odds of the Dolphins having to force the issue late increase.

All things considered, I wouldn’t go out of my way to find the salary for Cincinnati, but it’s a great option in lineups where I have it available.

New Orleans Saints DL (#3 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Minnesota Vikings OL

Obviously, it’s a bit oxymoronic to list the Vikings offensive line as both a strong matchup and a weak one, but it fits the data this week. The Vikings O-line, which is roughly average in adjusted line yards, ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate. Meanwhile, the Saints defensive line ranks dead last in adjusted line yards but average in adjusted sack rate.

Effectively, that means this is a terrible matchup for the Vikings passing attack and a great one for their ground game. If the Saints can force the Vikings into negative game scripts, Minnesota could really struggle to move the ball, making New Orleans ($2,600) an interesting budget option at team defense.

An especially contrarian – but positively correlated – large-field tournament build could pair the Saints defense with Tyler Shough ($6,100) or any other Saints offensive player. If New Orleans has offensive success, the script works out well for its defense, so the offensive player and defensive unit should work well together.

Picture: Kyler Murray, Aaron Jones
Photo Credit: Imagn