The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jared Goff at Arizona Cardinals – $6,600 on DraftKings, $8,100 on FanDuel
Week 5’s Sunday main slate features 11 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While there are several excellent matchups, the Lions’ trip to the desert to face the Cardinals stands out as one of the juiciest spots for fantasy points. According to our Vegas Dashboard, that matchup’s total is the highest on the slate by a wide margin of eight points. With some key offenses playing in primetime or on bye weeks, that game looks like the spot to stack, starting at QB.
Lions QB Jared Goff has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to the FantasyLabs Consensus projections. Goff has led the Lions to a 2-2 start, and all four games have been high-scoring. Detroit’s defense is dealing with key injuries, forcing the offense to score in bunches to keep up.
Goff has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in each of his last three games and is averaging 23.0 DraftKings points per game. He is the second-most expensive QB on DraftKings and the third-most on FanDuel, but he makes the most sense as a pay-up play due to his ceiling against the Cardinals.
Arizona has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to QBs this season. None of the other top-10 starting QBs on Sunday’s slate faces a defense that ranks in the bottom 10 against the position.
Goff threw for a season-high 412 yards last week and has nine touchdown tosses this season. He should be able to put up big points again against the Cardinals. He showed his upside with 32.8 DraftKings points in Week 2 on the road against the Bills and has a similar ceiling this week, since this game is expected to be so high-scoring compared to the rest of Sunday’s matchups.
Top Value: Jacoby Brissett vs. Detroit Lions – $5,500 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
On the other side of that matchup, Jacoby Brissett has the highest Plus/Minus projection among quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections by a very wide margin. He also has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position this week, behind only Goff. Since he is much cheaper, he has the potential to be an amazing value.
In most of the Cardinals’ contests, Brissett gets a high volume of opportunities, and the coaching staff trusts him to air it out. He also has a strong group of pass-catchers to work with, giving him a high ceiling. He has at least 35 pass attempts in all but one of his games this season. Last week, he completed 60% of his attempts in New York for 166 yards and two touchdowns. He threw three interceptions in that matchup and finished with only 13.4 DraftKings points as a result. However, in Week 3, he looked much sharper against a solid 49ers defense, racking up 25.6 DraftKings points.
The Lions have allowed more DraftKings points to QBs than any other team in the NFL. Opposing QBs have thrown 11 touchdowns against the Lions and added two rushing scores while averaging 327 passing yards per game. The secondary is dealing with injuries and still finding its way, making this a fantasy-friendly spot for Brissett to provide great value on Sunday.
The matchup against Detroit has been so favorable this season that a Cardinals stack is definitely worth considering. Brissett relies heavily on Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, and all three are solid core options for Week 5.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jahmyr Gibbs at Arizona Cardinals – $9,800 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
Whenever he’s on the main slate, Gibbs is a great candidate to lead running backs in ceiling. With such a juicy matchup and game environment this week, he has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections among running backs on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections. He also has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection on both sites despite his elevated salary.
Gibbs has thrived in his first season without David Montgomery sharing the workload. He has been a beast both as a rusher and as a receiver out of the backfield, scoring seven touchdowns in four games while averaging 88.2 rushing yards and 46.8 receiving yards per game.
Last week against the Panthers, Gibbs finished below those averages with his lowest output of the season. That was mostly due to the Lions falling far behind and needing to throw more. As long as they play from ahead or in a close game this week, Gibbs should be poised for a bounce-back showing and potentially a monster game.
The Cardinals’ defense has actually been good against the run this season, but Gibbs has a high ceiling, and his receiving work also bolsters his floor. He takes up a huge chunk of the salary cap in Week 5, but if you can find the right value players to compensate, he’s worth paying up for. He has the potential to go off and break the slate.
Top Value: Jaylen Warren vs. Indianapolis Colts – $6,700 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
The Steelers have extra rest after losing to the Browns on Thursday Night Football and could have a huge rest advantage against the Colts, who played last Sunday in London. With Rico Dowdle (toe) limited in practice all week and potentially easing back into action, this looks like a great spot for Jaylen Warren to continue carrying the load. His physical running style should serve him well in this favorable matchup against Indianapolis.
Warren has the highest projected Plus/Minus among running backs on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections. He has looked very strong over the last two weeks with Dowdle sidelined.
Against the Bengals in Week 3, Warren had 127 rushing yards and 49 receiving yards on three catches for 23.6 DraftKings points. In Week 4, he followed that up with 93 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards on three more catches.
Even though Warren hasn’t found the end zone yet this year, he has over 9.5 DraftKings points in each contest and is averaging 15.0 DraftKings points per game. He has multiple catches in each contest, and his work as a receiver out of the backfield raises both his floor and ceiling.
The Colts are a good matchup for Warren this week, having allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points to the position this season. Weather could also make the game sloppy and run-heavy, playing to Warren’s strengths.
If Dowdle is out or limited this week, Warren is a great value to build around at his salary under $7,000. If you want an even cheaper option, though, the models point to Braelon Allen as a strong option if he’s steps in and gets a second straight start in place of Breece Hall (quadriceps), who has missed practice all week.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. San Francisco 49ers – $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
The Seahawks defeated the Chargers at home last week despite an underwhelming showing from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. For the first time this season, he neither reached 100 yards nor found the end zone. The models project a big bounce-back performance against the 49ers this week. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections among wide receivers in the FantasyLabs Consensus rankings on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
JSN was on fire with six touchdowns over his first three games, producing 29.2, 45.5, and 38.4 DraftKings points. In Week 4, though, he managed only 12.6 DraftKings points, catching 5-of-6 targets for 76 yards.
This week, the Seahawks host the 49ers, who have been solid against receivers so far this season. However, Smith-Njigba has been very good against them recently, totaling 318 receiving yards on 25 catches in their last three matchups.
He still leads the NFL in target share by a wide margin, and his 76.2% catch rate has resulted in 32 catches (8.0 per game) for 481 receiving yards. He has a good chance to get back on track this week, and the projections give him the highest ceiling on the board.
Top Value: Michael Wilson vs. Detroit Lions – $6,200 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
After CeeDee Lamb‘s slower game on Thursday, Michael Wilson ranks second in the NFL in target share behind only JSN. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus among receivers in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings.
Wilson had a tough game against JSN’s Seahawks in Week 2 but has taken off in his two matchups since then. He had 11 catches for 89 yards and 25.9 DraftKings points against the 49ers in Week 3, then followed with seven catches for 95 yards and 16.5 DraftKings points against the Giants in Week 4.
With so many targets and an outstanding matchup against the Lions’ secondary, Wilson has a great chance to return value. Detroit has allowed over 200 receiving yards per game to opposing receivers and five wide receiver touchdowns in four games. Tetairoa McMillan lit them up last week with 14 catches on 16 targets for 192 yards and two touchdowns. Wilson will look to thrive in the same matchup on Sunday.
The high-scoring environment and his high-volume workload make him an excellent mid-range value to target. If you need a bargain, Luther Burden III, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Malik Washington (as I highlighted earlier this week) are worth considering.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Brock Bowers at New England Patriots – $7,000 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
While Trey McBride is definitely a top play, the models also love Brock Bowers against the Patriots. Bowers has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position, behind only McBride’s. He has been extremely productive in his two games since returning from a knee injury that cost him the first two weeks of the season.
Bowers caught 10 of his 13 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. He followed that up with six catches on 11 targets for 86 yards, another touchdown, and 20.6 DraftKings points against the Chiefs last week.
Bowers and the Raiders face the Patriots this week in a game with the third-highest point total on the board. He should continue to see a heavy volume of targets and has shown a strong connection with Kirk Cousins. Together, they look to turn the Raiders around in a hurry in their first year under coach Klint Kubiak.
Top Value: Isaiah Likely at Washington Commanders – $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
While McBride and Bowers both have high ceilings, their hefty salaries make them less appealing as value options. On both FanDuel and DraftKings, the FantasyLabs Consensus projections give Isaiah Likely the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
Likely has been heavily involved in the Giants’ passing game. He leads the team with 35 targets, while no other Giant has more than 26 (much to Malik Nabers‘ frustration). Likely has 10+ targets in two of his last three games and posted seven catches for 66 yards in last week’s win over Arizona.
The Commanders have been a top-10 matchup for tight ends in DraftKings points allowed this season. Opposing tight ends have found the end zone in each of their four games while averaging over 60 receiving yards per game.
Even if you pay up for an elite tight end, Likely’s heavy workload and favorable matchup make him an excellent FLEX consideration if you need salary cap space elsewhere.
Pictured: Jahmyr Gibbs
Photo Credit: Imagn
