Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks
Kenneth Walker ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Walker was the Chiefs big offseason acquisition, and he has paid huge dividends for them to start the year. Their offense looks as explosive as it has in years. They rank first in yards and third in points through the first two weeks of the season, and they’re No. 4 in terms of EPA per play.
For fantasy purposes, Walker has been completely unleashed. He was utilized as part of a committee in Seattle, but he’s been one of the biggest bell-cows in football so far in Kansas City. He’s handled 81% of the team’s carries, including 100% of the opportunities from inside the five-yard line. He’s also seen extensive work as a pass-catcher, posting a 21% target share while getting targeted on 33% of his routes run.
Walker has responded with 37.1 and 26.8 DraftKings points in his first two outings, making him the highest-scoring RB in fantasy. If he continues to see that type of utilization, he could be a potential league winner.
Volume shouldn’t be an issue for Walker in Week 3. The Chiefs are taking on the Dolphins, and they’re listed as massive 11-point favorites. Being a big favorite has historically been excellent for fantasy running backs. Teams are much more likely to run the ball with a lead than when trailing, and favorites of greater than a touchdown have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.76 (per the Trends tool).
Walker’s projections aren’t quite as high as some of the other top RBs on the slate, but he’s available at a solid discount. It’s enough to make him the best value at the position: he ranks first in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
The gap between Walker and Gibbs isn’t quite as stark on FanDuel as it is on DraftKings, so he has a strong claim to the top spot on that site. He owns the top raw projections at the position and has established himself as the clear-cut best running back in fantasy.
Gibbs has spent the past few seasons as part of a committee with David Montgomery, but he has been freed from that constraint this year. The Lions traded Montgomery to the Texans, and Gibbs has responded with career-best utilization numbers. He’s racked up a whopping 90% of the team’s rushing attempts, and he’s added a 17% target share. Add in 100% of the carries from inside the five-yard line, and there isn’t a single area where Gibbs is lacking.
It gives him multiple paths to relevance each week, and we’ve seen that play out to start the year. He was a monster on the ground in Week 1, finishing with 156 yards and two scores, and he had eight targets, six catches, 61 yards, and a receiving touchdown in Week 2. He’s a massive part of one of the most efficient offenses in football, and as long as he stays healthy, there’s no reason to expect much decline.
Aaron Jones ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
Jones got to serve as the Vikings’ bell-cow back in Week 2 with Jordan Mason sidelined. He handled 23 carries and played on 42 of 52 snaps, and he ultimately finished with 105 rushing yards. Even without scoring a touchdown or catching a single pass, Jones still managed to deliver positive value on his salary.
It’s possible that Jones was a bit overworked in that contest. He suffered a knee injury, and while he was able to gut it out, head coach Kevin O’Connell said he was “pretty sore” after the game. He was held out of practice on Wednesday, so he should not be expected to handle the same level of workload in Week 3.
That said, with Mason still sidelined, Jones will be asked to carry more than usual. DeeJay Dallas and Demond Claiborne are the other two backs on the roster. They should spell Jones more than they did in Week 2, but they’re not going to become big parts of the offense.
As long as Jones is able to suit up, he stands out as one of the better value plays at the position. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a 83% Bargain Rating. He’s second at running back in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus, and he’s No. 4 on DraftKings.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks
Derrick Henry ($7,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
New year, same old Cowboys. They were expected to be improved on defense this season, but that has not been the case through the first two weeks. They were awful against the Giants in Week 1, while Jayden Daniels moved the ball at will before getting hurt in Week 2. Overall, the Cowboys are just 29th in EPA per play defensively.
That’s great news for the Ravens, who draw a matchup vs. the Cowboys in Week 3. Both of these offenses can score points in bunches, resulting in a slate-high 52.5 total. The Ravens are also listed as 3.5-point road favorites, and their 28.0 implied team total is tied for third-highest on the slate.
Henry is always a threat to pop off for a huge performance. He looked unstoppable in Week 1 vs. the Colts, finishing with 144 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries. Henry wasn’t quite as impressive in Week 2 (16 carries, 68 yards, one score), but the Ravens went away from him in the second half for some reason. He had just five carries after halftime, including just one in the fourth quarter. After the Ravens blew a lead vs. the Saints, don’t expect them to make that same mistake again.
Ashton Jeanty ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
There was just a smidge of concern about what Jeanty’s workload would look like to start the year. Not only was he dealing with an injury, but Mike Washington turned in a massive preseason. It was possible that he would eat into Jeanty’s workload a little bit during the regular season, regardless of Jeanty’s health status.
Turns out, those concerns were unfounded. Jeanty has operated as the team’s clear lead back, including an 84% carry share in Week 2.
Most importantly, Jeanty has shown increased upside as a pass-catcher. He has a 23% target share for the year, which is the second-highest mark at the position. His target share has been at 21% or higher in both outings, so the Raiders seem committed to using him more in that department than they did as a rookie.
That increases Jeanty’s floor and ceiling, and he draws an excellent Week 3 matchup vs. the Saints. They surrendered a huge game to Gibbs in Week 1, and they’re merely 27th in rush defense EPA through the first two weeks. He ultimately ranks third on DraftKings in ceiling projection and projected Plus/Minus, trailing only Walker and Gibbs.
Jaylen Warren ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
The Steelers backfield is in another spot that could provide some value this week. Rico Dowdle exited early in Week 2, and he’s been held out of practice so far this week. It seems as though he’s trending towards sitting, though what happens at Friday’s practice will likely be the determining factor.
If Dowdle is out, Warren would become an appealing option. The Steelers’ offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders to start the year, but Warren would likely become a near-every-down player in that scenario. Dowdle has posted a 38% carry share and 8% target share through the first two weeks, and adding some of that to Warren’s existing profile is pretty tantalizing (54% carry share, 13% target share).
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside
Jonathan Taylor ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Among the “stud” RBs, Taylor appears to be the one flying most under the radar. He’s projected for roughly 10% ownership on DraftKings, but his optimal lineup rate is above 25% in Sim Labs. It results in the largest discrepancy at the position.
The big knock on Taylor has always been his lack of pass-catching upside. That said, he has displayed a bit more upside in that department this year. Daniel Jones has not looked as willing to use his legs, so he’s been more willing to dump it off to Taylor. He’s posted a 14% target share, and while that’s not an elite mark, it puts him much closer to the league average than in years past.
Of course, Taylor’s best skill is his ability to carry the rock, and he still has as much upside as anyone in the league as a runner. He’s run for multiple TDs in back-to-back games, and he’s added at least 92 yards in both contests.
His matchup this week vs. the Texans is far from ideal, but that’s why he’s available at less ownership than usual. He still has one of the top ceiling projections at the position.
Cam Skattebo ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
Skattebo is another player who is showing up as undervalued in Sim Labs. While he has a bit more competition for touches than Taylor, he still has some upside in all facets of the game. He scored a rushing touchdown in Week 1, and he caught four passes in Week 2.
With Jaxson Dart out of the lineup, Skattebo could be an even larger part of the game plan moving forward. Jameis Winston isn’t nearly as likely to run – giving Skattebo more chances to catch checkdowns – while the Giants could run the ball at a higher frequency. That’s particularly true in Week 3, with the Giants listed as three-point favorites vs. the Titans.
Chase Brown ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Brown hasn’t put together a huge game to start the year, but he continues to handle most of the opportunities in the Bengals’ backfield. He’s handled 77% of the team’s rushing attempts, including 91% in Week 2. He’s also posted a 15% target share, so he remains a clear workhorse running back.
Brown draws a tough matchup on paper in Week 3, but we’re still not sure how good the Steelers’ defense actually is. They had a glorified bye week against the Falcons in Week 1, while the Patriots didn’t present a huge test in Week 2. Even so, the Steelers’ defense is merely 21st in rush defense EPA, so Brown could have some success in this spot.
Bhayshul Tuten ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
As expected, the Jaguars have deployed a committee at running back this season. Tuten, Chris Rodriguez, LeQuint Allen, and Ameer Abdullah have all been involved, making this a messy situation for fantasy purposes.
That said, Tuten has gotten enough of the work to stay relevant. He’s handled 54% of the team’s rushing attempts, and he had 50% of the goal line carries in Week 2. Tuten has finished with at least 65 rushing yards in both outings, and he added a touchdown in his last contest.
Tuten also has elite speed at the position, so he doesn’t need a ton of opportunities to potentially rip off a long score. He should garner almost no ownership vs. the Patriots, and his optimal lineup rate exceeds his projected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Pictured: Kenneth Walker
Photo Credit: Imagn
