UFC Vegas 121 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Rosas vs. Barcelos, More Saturday Fights

Sandwiched between two “PLE” events, we have UFC Vegas 121, a somewhat lackluster offering from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The main event final fight of the night features wunderkind Raul Rosas Jr. in his first five-round fight, as he takes on Brazilian veteran Raoni Barcelos.

We’re back to the usual 5:00 p.m. ET start time for this 12-fight card.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in the UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

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The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in tournaments, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Raul Rosas Jr. ($8,700) vs. Raoni Barcelos ($7,500)

Raul Rosas made waves when he debuted on the Contender Series shortly before his 18th birthday, winning a contract and becoming the youngest fighter to sign with the UFC. It was a bit of a publicity stunt, as he turned 18 just a few weeks later and the promotion could’ve waited, but it was an effective one: Rosas immediately became a known commodity in MMA circles.

Since then, the grappling prodigy has gone 6-1 in the UFC across seven mostly carefully curated matchups, with his lone loss coming by decision to Christian Rodriguez. The way he lost that fight is intriguing, though: He dominated the first round before running out of gas, and this will be his first scheduled five-round fight. I don’t think Rosas has bad cardio by any stretch, but his grappling-heavy style, with more than 12 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, is extremely taxing. How he performs over 25 minutes will be critical to his long-term prospects, as it’s hard to become a star without fighting in main events or title fights.

He gets a fairly stiff test in Raoni Barcelos, both in terms of overall ability and style. Barcelos is 39, making this likely the widest age gap in a UFC main event, but he’s riding a career-best five-fight winning streak. He’s also a former Brazilian national champion wrestler and BJJ black belt who has been taken down just five times in 15 UFC fights.

I expect the younger Rosas to land takedowns early but Barcelos to scramble back to his feet, with the cycle repeating unless Rosas runs out of gas. That makes this a near-perfect DFS stack: Rosas could bank plenty of points early and still lose, giving both men solid scores. I’m certainly stacking the fight in cash games and will have a tournament lineup or two with a stack as well, especially given the need to be contrarian on a smaller slate.

The Easy Chalk

Rinya Nakamura ($9,300)

I can’t remember a slate where I’ve had less confidence in the top options, at least relative to their salaries, than this one. There are flaws in the case for effectively every fighter north of $8,800, including Japan’s Rinya Nakamura, who draws a quietly tough matchup with Brady Hiestand ($6,900). However, Nakamura’s style makes him one of the safer picks at the top.

The former freestyle wrestler was once described by Sean Zerillo as “Japan’s Bo Nickal,” a comparison that felt a bit optimistic initially but has aged well given both men’s stumbles against less-heralded competition. For Nakamura, that was a loss to Muin Gafurov, which he has since followed with a first-round knockout victory over Nathan Fletcher.

Hiestand is 3-1 in the UFC, with his lone loss coming by split decision, and is arguably the toughest test of Nakamura’s career. However, he’s probably in the sweet spot of being able to survive trips to the ground with Nakamura without preventing takedowns in the first place, which is an ideal outcome for DFS.

I expect this fight to be closer than Nakamura’s roughly -400 moneyline odds suggest, but I still expect him to perform well from a DFS standpoint. That makes him one of the more comfortable high-end plays on the slate.

The Upside Plays

Yazmin Jauregui ($9,800)

Yazmin Jauregui is returning from an absence of more than two years after being knocked down and submitted by Ketlen Souza in September 2024. She’s still the heaviest favorite on the slate by a massive margin. That’s due to her matchup with Vanessa Demopoulos ($6,400), a 38-year-old who has lost three straight, with her last win coming by split decision.

Jauregui is a much more talented striker and a better athlete than Demopoulos, who took up BJJ as an adult for fitness and self-defense. Demopoulos has been outstruck by more than two significant strikes per minute in the UFC and has very little takedown ability, with just a 9% accuracy rate during her run. Her game relies heavily on opponents willingly grappling with her, and the book is out on how to fight her.

Jauregui lands nearly seven significant strikes per minute in the UFC and could pile up DFS points through volume. She’s also an underrated grappler who could catch Demopoulos on the ground if the underdog gets desperate for takedowns. Best of all, Jauregui shouldn’t be very popular, as the field will be reluctant to spend this much on a favorite in a fight likely to go the distance.

Since it’s mainly an ownership play, I’m not rostering Jauregui in cash games. She’s an excellent contrarian choice, though, given the relative weakness of the slate’s top options.

The Value Play

Ricky Simon ($7,400)

There’s solid value at various price points among the underdogs this weekend, but my favorite option when considering both price and upside is Ricky Simon. He’s taking on Montel Jackson ($8,800) in a rematch of their 2018 fight, which Simon won while recording seven takedowns.

While both fighters are fairly well-rounded at this point in their careers, it’s still something of a striker-versus-grappler matchup, with Simon as the grappler. The fight could also play out very differently depending on how long it lasts: Montel “Quik” Jackson often overextends himself in pursuit of fast finishes, then runs out of gas if he doesn’t get them.

The durable Simon has a strong chance of weathering the early storm. He’s been finished just twice in the UFC, once in the fifth round of a main event. If he survives the early rounds, he’ll likely turn up the pace and grappling pressure, which should give him a solid score even without a win bonus.

This fight is somewhat more likely to end inside the distance than some other matchups featuring cheap options, making Simon slightly risky, but his upside is worth it in my book.

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The Contrarian Choice

Robert Bryczek ($7,800)

Robert Bryczek takes on Rodolfo Vieira ($8,400) in a battle of elder statesmen, with both men coming off losses. Bryczek lost a decision to Cam Rowston, while Vieira is on a two-fight losing streak, with one loss by knockout and the other by decision.

This is an extremely binary fight between the powerful but defensively limited Bryczek and the legendary BJJ practitioner Vieira. The Brazilian has had his moments in striking exchanges but largely needs to get fights to the mat. He comes in with just a 22% takedown success rate in the UFC. Bryczek was controlled for extended periods by Rowston in his last fight, but he now faces an older, slower opponent.

I’m not entirely confident Bryczek can keep this one on the feet, but he has solid submission defense, with his only career submission loss coming back in 2012. He certainly has the power to knock out the somewhat chinny Vieira, though, giving him tremendous upside at his price point if he can keep it standing. He’s too risky for cash games but is a fun tournament pivot.

The Swing Fight

Josiah Harrell ($8,200) vs. Elves Brener ($8,000)

With the way DraftKings structures UFC DFS salaries, the winner of the $8,200/$8,000 fight often ends up in the optimal lineup, especially if no big underdogs pull off upsets. That’s especially true on smaller cards, and this weekend’s 12-fight slate is a bit smaller than average.

The lightweight bout between Harrell and Brener isn’t the typical “Swing Fight” because it doesn’t have elite stoppage odds, though it is slightly favored to end inside the distance at -135. I’m listing it here mainly because the unknowns surrounding both fighters create a wide range of outcomes. At their prices, either fighter could also make the optimal lineup with a decision win.

Harrell is 0-1 in the UFC, but that loss came on a few days’ notice, up a weight class, against highly touted prospect Jacobe Smith. He’s 11-0 outside of that fight, with ten stoppage victories and fairly impressive tape from the regional scene. Now back in his natural weight class, it will be interesting to see how he does in his first UFC lightweight fight.

Brener is more experienced, with six fights in the promotion and a 3-3 record, but he has competed just once in more than two years. He’s also, to my knowledge, the first member of Chute Boxe Diego Lima to compete since the death of teammate Allan Nascimento, who died in August at age 34. Charles Oliveira was booked to fight last weekend but pulled out, so I have questions about the rest of the team’s preparation and training environment.

At his best, Brener is a hyper-aggressive striker with two knockout victories in the UFC. He’s also defensively limited and has been knocked down twice in his last three fights. That should create a high-variance fight with a big score from the winner; I’m just not sure which fighter that will be. I’m leaning Harrell, but I’ll have plenty of both fighters in tournaments.

Pictured: Raul Rosas
Photo Credit: Imagn Images