The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Gavin Williams (R) $10,500 Cleveland Guardians (-140) at Los Angeles Angels
Yesterday we had Guardians lefty Parker Messick as the top play on the board, and he delivered a solid six-inning outing with just one earned run and three hits. He also only picked up four strikeouts, which was less than optimal, but at $9,500, that was an easier pill to swallow. Today, his teammate Gavin Williams comes at a $1,000 price premium in the same matchup.
The Angels are effectively the same matchup for right-handed pitching as they are for left, with a slightly below-average wRC+ and a high strikeout rate. With Williams’ price tag, we need Ks to justify rostering him, so it’s nice that the Angels’ lineup facilitates that. On the other hand, Williams ranks third in the MLB with a 32.4% strikeout rate, so he brings upside to any matchup.
Like yesterday, an expensive top stack makes rostering the slate’s priciest pitcher difficult, though this time we have some cheaper arms to help balance out the salary. Williams is an elite option on paper, with the case against him based more on his high ownership or wanting to spend more on hitters than on any reasonable case that he underperforms here. That makes him a cash game lock and a potential but not certain tournament option.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Aaron Nola (R) $6,700 Philadelphia Phillies (-106) at Seattle Mariners
One of those cheaper options is Nola, who leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection with a very solid 2.5 mark. Nola had a terrible start to 2026, which explains his ERA over 5.00, but he has been much better recently, with his salary based more on his full-season performance than recent form.
Over his last five starts, Nola has allowed eight combined runs in 28.2 innings and has struck out at least eight hitters in each of his last three. Seattle has a better lineup against righties than any of those three opponents (Minnesota, Miami, and Toronto) but not by a ton, with their wRC+ within 10 points of all three teams and just one point ahead of Minnesota. The Mariners also strike out at a higher rate than any of those teams, giving Nola a bit of boom-or-bust potential.
The “boom” is more likely thanks to this game being in Seattle, the toughest park in baseball to score runs in. With Nola’s long track record of quality pitching prior to this season, his recent performance doesn’t feel like a fluke, making him one of the best pitching options on the board at his salary, with a strong case in cash games and tournaments of all types.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Jacob deGrom (R) $9,300 Texas Rangers (-110) at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are a top-ten offense with a top-five strikeout rate, which makes rostering pitchers against them always an interesting tournament option, especially when said pitcher is someone like Jacob deGrom, who has a 30%+ strikeout rate in his age-38 season. deGrom trails only Williams in median and ceiling projection, but with a $1,200 salary discount and considerably less projected ownership, he’s an elite tournament pivot.
Kyle Harrison (L) $9,500 Milwaukee Brewers (-161) at New York Mets
With the Mets having thrown in the towel on 2026 and superstar Juan Soto out of the lineup, their season-long numbers aren’t especially relevant to the conversation. What is relevant is the Vegas data, which has the Mets with the lowest implied total and the Brewers with the heaviest moneyline odds on the slate. Harrison also has a 30% strikeout rate and sub-3.00 ERA, so he’s playable in any matchup, but today is an especially solid spot.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
The Twins lived up to their billing as the top stack yesterday, putting up nine runs against the A’s, led by a three-hit/four-run game from Byron Buxton, with every hitter in their top five going for at least seven DraftKings points. They chased starter Jeffrey Springs in the fifth and continued to pile on against the A’s bullpen.
Tonight, they draw another lefty in Gage Jump, which means Minnesota is (slightly) on the wrong side of their platoon splits. Jump is also a slightly better pitcher than Springs but suffers from similar home/road splits. On the road, Jump’s ERA is 3.49; at home, it’s north of six.
This one is in Sacramento, so we should see another solid outing from the Twins, who once again have the highest total on the slate by more than half of a run. Another nine runs is probably a big ask, but it wouldn’t shock me if they came close to that mark, making them worth spending up for.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Justin Foscue 2B ($3,400) Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox (Anthony Kay)
The logical pivot from the Twins stack as pictured above is to swap out Kody Clemens at second base. He has a lefty-on-lefty matchup and is batting fifth in Minnesota’s lineup, which makes his $5,400 price tag a big ask, especially when we have a much better option: Justin Foscue of the Rangers. He’s also facing a southpaw, and the .253 overall hitter is batting over .300 against lefties while holding down the leadoff spot in the lineup at a salary $2,000 cheaper than Clemens.
In fact, the Rangers are a solid stacking option overall, as a top-five team against lefties with some solid numbers in PlateIQ:
Trent Grisham OF ($4,400) New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros (Ethan Pecko)
The Yankees could go overlooked tonight, but they have a lot going for them in their home matchup against the Astros. Yankee Stadium is the second-best home run park in baseball (and the best on the slate), and the weather is providing another 10% boost to home runs. They’re also taking on a rookie pitcher in Ethan Pecko, making just his second MLB start after posting a 4.94 ERA in AAA this season.
The three left-handed bats at the top of the Yankees’ lineup all have solid numbers against righties, but Grisham is the best value as the leadoff hitter with the cheapest price tag.
Henry Bolte OF ($4,000) Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins (Taj Bradley)
It’s also worth checking out some A’s hitters at home in Sacramento, with most of the attention on the visiting Twins. The home team put up a solid six runs yesterday and are implied for 4.4 tonight, a solid mark relative to their collective salaries.
Bolte isn’t exactly a world-beater, but the rookie is reasonably priced for a leadoff hitter batting .276 with some power (six home runs in 89 games) and speed (14 steals). The Athletics’ lineup is missing some key pieces, which makes them less exciting than they could be, but there’s still some solid value tonight.
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Pictured: Gavin Williams
Photo Credit: Imagn
