The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease (R) $10,200 Toronto Blue Jays (-125) at Seattle Mariners
The Blue Jays came up just short in the World Series last year, and Cease was acquired to give them another excellent starting pitcher. So far, he’s done exactly that. He’s pitched to a 3.02 ERA and a 3.00 xERA, which puts him in the 87th percentile. That hasn’t translated into more wins for the Blue Jays – they’re currently sitting at 41-46 – but Cease has definitely done his part.
Cease’s best trait has always been his strikeout ability, and he’s taken things to another level in 2026. He’s racked up 128 punchouts in just 83.1 innings, good for a career-best 13.28 K/9. His 36.7% strikeout rate puts him in the 99th percentile, and he ranks in the 97th percentile for Whiff rate as well.
Cease should have no problem racking up strikeouts in this matchup. The Mariners have the 10th-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season, and Cease leads all pitchers with an 8.19 K Prediction. Historically, pitchers with a comparable K Prediction have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.65 (per the Trends tool).
Cease will also benefit from where he gets to face the Mariners. This game will take place in Seattle, which has historically been a pitcher’s park. In fact, it owns the best Statcast Park Factor for pitchers over the past three seasons. It’s enough to make him the top stud arm on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Reid Detmers (L) $8,300 Los Angeles Angels (-115) vs. Boston Red Sox
Detmers is another pitcher who is no stranger to racking up strikeouts. His strikeout rate puts him in the 82nd percentile, and he’s had seven starts with at least eight punchouts this season. That includes his most recent outing, where he had eight vs. the Athletics in just 5.2 innings.
Detmers draws a tough matchup Friday vs. the Red Sox, who have been an above-average offense against left-handers this season. However, their offense is currently missing a key piece in Willson Contreras. He’s posted a 155 wRC+ against left-handers this season, and they’re not quite as intimidating without him.
Detmers ultimately has the third-highest K Prediction on this slate, and the two pitchers ahead of him are priced at least $1,900 more expensive. He also ranks fourth in opponent implied run total and is a slight favorite, so he checks all of the boxes. He’s first in THE BAT X projected Plus/Minus by a pretty solid margin, making him an excellent choice at either starting pitcher slot.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Shohei Ohtani (R) $10,700 Los Angeles Dodgers (-250) vs. San Diego Padres
Ohtani is the most expensive starter on this slate, and he has the clear best Vegas data. He’s the biggest favorite of the day by a mile, and he also ranks first in opponent implied run total (3.2). Ohtani has been dominant on the mound all season, pitching to a 1.58 ERA, and there’s no reason to expect much different on Friday. The only reason he lags behind Cease is that he isn’t a truly elite strikeout arm. His 9.72 K/9 is good but not great, so Cease has a bit more upside in that department.
Luis Castillo (R) $6,900 Seattle Mariners (+105) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Castillo will oppose Cease on Friday, and he also gets the benefit of pitching in Seattle. He hasn’t had his best stuff for most of the season, but he is trending in the right direction. He posted a 3.38 ERA in June, which is more in line with what we’ve come to expect from Castillo. His K/9 is also above 9.0 in Seattle, and if he can continue to pitch as he has recently, $6,900 is simply too cheap a price tag.
Trevor Rogers (L) $6,700 Baltimore Orioles (-120) at Cincinnati Reds
Rogers was a revelation for the Orioles last season, but he got off to a rough start in 2026. That said, he has started to turn things around. He’s turned in five straight solid outings, resulting in a 2.05 ERA in June. He’s scored at least 27.25 DraftKings points in two straight, so he’s another pitcher with elite upside for his price tag. He’ll have his work cut out for him at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, but the Reds have the sixth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season. Add in an ownership projection under 10%, and he makes for a great tournament option.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
This season has been pretty much a disaster for the Giants. They’re currently sitting at just 36-50, and their offense has been the biggest reason why. They’re 25th in the league in runs per game, with most of their key contributors having subpar seasons.
That said, there is some reason for optimism with the Giants on Friday. Of course, that stems primarily from their trip to Coors Field. Coors is the best hitting environment in baseball, and the Giants receive one of the biggest upgrades possible compared to hitting in San Francisco.
They’ll also be on the positive side of their splits. San Francisco ranks a reasonable 12th in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, and they’ll square off with a subpar righty in Ryan Feltner. He owns a 5.20 xERA for the year, and his strikeout rate puts him in the 10th percentile. At a minimum, they should have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play, and good things happen when you make contact at Coors.
The Giants’ 6.2 implied run total is the top mark on the slate, and it belies their relatively pedestrian salaries. This is a good opportunity to target Coors Field without breaking the bank, and you can definitely pair them with one of Ohtani, Cease, or Rogers pretty comfortably.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jazz Chisholm, 2B ($4,300) New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins (Mike Paredes)
The Yankees are trying to survive without Aaron Judge, who is expected to miss at least another month with a fracture rib. They haven’t exactly thrived in his absence, winning just two of their past 10 games.
Still, their lineup has plenty of other strong batters, including Chisholm. He has the potential to do damage with his bat and his legs, tallying 12 homers and 26 stolen bases so far this season.
Chisholm will be on the positive side of his splits Friday vs. Mike Paredes, who does not look like an MLB-caliber pitcher. He ranks near the bottom of the league in nearly every metric of note, including first-percentile marks in hard-hit rate and strikeout rate. The Yankees have plenty of upside in this matchup, and Chisholm stands out as arguably their best option.
Samuel Basallo, C ($3,600) Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds (Brady Singer)
Basallo is still just 21 years old, but he’s proving that he deserves to be in the big leagues. He’s posted a 113 wRC+ in his first full MLB season, and he has elite raw power. He’s launched 12 homers in his first 267 plate appearances while grading out well above average in bat speed, barrel rate, and expected slugging percentage.
Basallo will have the opportunity to put his power on display in Cincinnati. The Great American Ball Park is one of the best hitting venues in baseball, particularly when it comes to home runs. It ranks second in Statcast Park Factors for homers over the past three seasons, and it’s been even friendlier for lefties like Basallo. The Orioles are implied for 5.5 runs on this slate, and Basallo ranks fourth overall in our blended projection set in projected Plus/Minus.
Lawrence Butler, OF ($3,300) Athletics vs. Miami Marlins (Tyler Phillips)
Butler has not had a good season, which has caused his price tag to dip to just $3,300 for Friday’s matchup vs. the Marlins. However, he has started to turn things around. He ranks third in their projected lineup in terms of wOBA against righties over the past 30 days (via Plate IQ):
Butler is expected to occupy the cleanup spot against Tyler Phillips, and that’s a matchup he can potentially take advantage of. Phillips has been absolutely rocked of late, with a hard-hit rate north of 60% over the past 30 days.
Pictured: Dylan Cease
Photo Credit: Imagn
