The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cristopher Sanchez (L) $11,500 Philadelphia Phillies (-185) at Washington Nationals
Thursday’s evening slate is going to make for some tough DFS decisions. Most of the standout pitchers are near the top of the price range, with the best hitter stack also fairly pricey. It’s effectively impossible to roster two premium arms and a top offense, with our projected ownership suggesting that most of the field is going to prioritize pitching.
One of the ways to do so is through Sanchez, who comes into Thursday with a sub-2.00 ERA. He also has an excellent 28.5% strikeout rate, and that should probably be even higher based on his 14.5% swinging strike rate. Those numbers explain why his price tag is north of $11,000, and the Nationals are tied for the lowest implied total on the slate.
It’s worth noting that Washington also has the best wRC+ in baseball against southpaws this season, making this a tough matchup for Sanchez. Good hitting typically beats good pitching, but with Sanchez’s price it could be worth being a bit more discerning. He could certainly turn in an elite performance and break the slate, but he almost has to do just that to be worth playing at his price, and his odds of doing so are lower in this spot.
He has a narrow lead in median and ceiling projections but ranks in the bottom half in Pts/Sal projection on the six-game slate. The tournament upside is solid, but he’s too expensive for tighter builds.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Kevin Gausman (R) $8,500 Toronto Blue Jays (-153) vs. Texas Rangers
That the top value on the slate isn’t all that cheap at $8,500 is a good microcosm of this slate. There are some less-expensive options we can feel good about, but nobody who frees up a ton of salary without taking on a lot of risk.
The good news for Kevin Gausman is that, unlike Sanchez, he has both a slightly above-average matchup and is due for some positive regression. The Rangers rank 17th in wRC+ against righties this season, so at worst this is a neutral spot. More importantly, Gausman’s ERA this year is 4.04, but most of his underlying numbers are at least half a run better.
His median projection is within half of a point of Sanchez, the slate leader who costs an additional $3,000 in salary. Gausman doesn’t quite have the strikeout upside of the top pitchers on the slate, but I much prefer the savings he offers. He leads our Pts/Sal – and ownership – projections by a wide margin.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Cam Schlittler (R) $10,500 New York Yankees (-162) at Boston Red Sox
Schlittler is basically Sanchez with a much better matchup and a $1,000 price discount today. He’s taking on Boston, who remain the worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching, and brings a 1.71 ERA into the matchup. His ERA predictors are about a run higher, but nobody is going to complain about his “true ability” being in the mid-to-high twos. He also has a slightly higher strikeout rate (29.5%) than Sanchez, making him my preferred spend-up option considering his lower price and ownership.
Troy Melton (R) $7,000 Detroit Tigers (-115) vs. Houston Astros
If you’re looking to save salary, Tigers “rookie” (he was five innings shy of losing rookie qualification in 2025) Troy Melton might be the best option. He’s somehow managed to only strike out 15% of his MLB opponents this season despite a 35.6% mark in the minors but has still kept runs off the board with a 2.56 ERA. He’s risky against an above-average Astros team, but if he’s able to find some strikeouts, his upside could be tremendous. He’s the cheapest option I’m comfortable with today, which is important given the hitting options available.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The expensive hitting options I’ve been referencing mostly just means the Phillies, the only team on the board with a run total of 5.0 or higher but who also cost more than $5,000 per player. They’re taking on Nationals righty Cade Cavali ($6,100) and his 4.07 ERA in Washington tonight.
That the team with the best total on the board is also on the road obviously increases their value, since they’ll get the guaranteed ninth trip to the plate. Plus, Cavali is much worse against lefties than righties, with his wOBA allowed to the former being .361 and to the latter .289.
With three of the Phillies’ first five hitters batting left-handed, that gives them a boost here. They also have three other lefties lower in their lineup, so if you really want to lean into the platoon splits angle, you could get creative with your stack while saving a decent amount of salary.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Paul Goldschmidt 1B ($4,300) New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (Connelly Early)
It’s a little disingenuous to point out that the Yankees are the second-best team against lefties this season, since a huge portion of that is/was due to Aaron Judge, who remains on the injured list. To that point, they’ve fallen from the top spot since Judge went down with his injury.
However, there are other Yankee bats with great numbers against southpaws, most notably Goldschmidt, who has made a career out of just that. Here are his numbers since the start of 2025, courtesy of PlateIQ:
Those are great marks at any price point, but at $4,300, he’s a borderline must-play.
Kevin McGonigle 3B/SS ($4,800) Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros (Tatsuya Imai)
One of the best things about rookie-of-the-year front-runner McGonigle in DFS is his multi-position eligibility. With the option to roster him at either shortstop or third base, he fits well around most stacks and gives you plenty of flexibility.
We have him projecting as the highest-scoring option at both of those positions today. He’s especially valuable at shortstop, where the second-best option costs $5,400, since there are some strong options at third base. McGonigle doesn’t have massive home run or stolen base upside, but he’s a consistent hitter with an .816 OPS. He’s also leading off for the Tigers, who are implied for a solid 4.7 runs at home tonight.
Corey Seager SS ($4,300) Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman)
The exception to the “play McGonigle at shortstop” rule is if you’re playing Seager. The logic here is that Toronto’s Gausman is projecting for north of 60% ownership, so taking a stance on a hitter against him is probably wise in lineups where you don’t have Gausman. There are truthfully not a ton of great options – hence Gausman projecting so well – but Seager might be the best bet.
He’s struggled this season (to put it mildly) with a .186 batting average but is a major regression candidate. His BABIP is more than 100 points below his career mark, and batted ball metrics like barrel rate and hard-hit% are all still what we’ve seen in the past. Is today the day he gets back on track? I have no idea, but if he does, it would provide massive leverage over a chalk pitcher.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket promo code.
Pictured: Cristopher Sanchez
Photo Credit: Imagn
