UFC Vegas 119 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Kape vs. Horiguchi, More Saturday Fights

We return to normalcy after the White House card with UFC Vegas 119, a 12-fight card that allows for standard DFS contests. The headliner is a rematch long in the making between Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi, who held titles in Japan’s RIZIN promotion before heading (or returning) stateside, with the winner of this one on the flyweight title short list.

The 12-fight card goes down at the usual 5:00 p.m. ET start time, with the entire event airing on Paramount+.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Manel Kape ($8,600) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi ($7,600)

We’re usually in for a good time when we get a flyweight main event, and that holds especially true when the stakes are as high as they are in this one. Manel Kape has long been on the verge of a title shot, but an ill-timed loss to Mohamed Mokaev combined with difficulty making it into the cage has stopped him from getting there. Kyoji Horiguchi lost his flyweight title opportunity in an all-time classic against Demetrius Johnson, a decade ago, left the UFC and is 2-0 upon his return – putting him near another chance at the championship.

One of the things Horiguchi did while fighting in other promotions was submit Kape in the 3rd round of a flyweight grand prix that he eventually won in 2017. In fact, both he and Kape were champions in the RIZIN promotion, both winning titles with knockouts of Kai Asakura. The trends on rematches generally favor the younger man and the previous winner – which is a push in this case as Kape is 3 years younger – though the tournament format (3 fights in a weekend) of their first meeting makes that result less relevant.

This is a somewhat binary fight, with Kape the more powerful and more active striker, while Horiguchi should hold a grappling edge. Not that either man is bad at the other’s preferred discipline, but the strengths are clear. The smaller Apex cage theoretically helps the grappling of Horiguchi, though his constant footwork and movement also could be limited by a lack of space to operate.

Either way, the winner – and possibly even the loser – of this fight should put up a good score, as both men have solid volume and per-minute scoring. In a fight that’s a pick ’em to go the distance, it’s also an obvious cash game stack with a solid floor on both sides. I prefer Kape slightly in tournaments, as he brings more finishing upside, but I will have one or the other in nearly 100% of my lineups.

The Easy Chalk

Levan Chokheli ($9,100)

We have an interesting fight between 2 UFC debutants on the prelims, as Levan Chokheli takes on Leon Shahbazyan ($7,100), the older brother of longtime UFC fighter Edmen Shahbazyan. The elder Shahbazyan brother appeared on the Contender Series in 2019, losing by knockout to Phil Rowe before returning to the regional scene.

There, he’s gone 5-2 – though one of his wins has been flagged by Tapology for legitimacy issues – with all of his wins coming via first-round submissions, with 2 further knockout losses. He seems very similar to his brother in that he’s dangerous for a round (or less) but quickly fades if unable to find the finish.

Which is probably less than optimal against Chokheli, a Bellator veteran with a 14-3 overall record. He’s fought stiffer competition than Shahbazyan in recent years and seems to be a far more well-rounded fighter. He also has the best first-round and inside-the-distance odds of any fighter on the slate, plus his moneyline has moved significantly in his favor since salaries dropped on Monday.

That makes him a pretty clear top play, although not one without risk given Shahbazyan’s quick finishing ability. Still, at $9,100, he has just as much or more upside as more expensive fighters, so he’s a hard fade in any contest type.

The Upside Plays

Bia Mesquita ($9,600)

The “Lady GOAT” of BJJ has transitioned wonderfully to MMA, with a 7-0 pro record (2-0 UFC) without needing a third round. She gets perhaps her last “showcase fight” this weekend against Melissa Mullins ($6,600) before the 35-year-old Bia Mesquita gets a push into the rankings and title contention.

Mullins is solid, with a 2-2 UFC record, but no match on the ground for the best female grappler of all time. What makes Mesquita so effective is, unlike many BJJ converts, she has solid takedowns, converting 3 of her 4 attempts in the UFC. While Mullins has only been taken down once in the promotion, the nature of her matchups means she’s typically the one looking to grapple, which obviously won’t be the case here.

The question here is whether Mullins can get back to her feet after being taken down, a necessary ingredient in the process if Mesquita is going to land multiple takedowns. One takedown in the first round followed by a submission might not be quite enough for the optimal lineup at $9,600, unless it comes in the first minute.

I have some optimism that Mullins can, as she’s been working her own grappling a ton and might not succumb to the very first takedown. With that said, the floor for Mesquita here is still a fairly early finish, while the upside is multiple takedowns and an early finish, making her a comfortable play in all contest types.

Murtazali Magomedov ($9,000)

Magomedov is another UFC debutant who comes in with high hopes, as he takes on the returning Melsik Baghdasaryan ($7,200). Baghdasaryan has competed just once in the last 3 years due to a string of injuries, and that fight was a knockout loss to Jean Silva. He also withdrew from a fight since that one, with another injury, so this isn’t quite a “second fight back from an injury” situation.

I picked Magomedov to get the win on last year’s Contender Series, describing him as a talented striker with solid offensive grappling, but some defensive question marks. That makes this an ideal stylistic matchup for Magomedov, as Baghdasaryan is a former kickboxer who has never landed a takedown in the UFC.

Given Baghdasaryan’s age and injury history, Magomedov could very well be the more dangerous striker in this matchup. Even if that’s not the case, he’s almost certainly the better grappler, giving him a pretty clear path to victory no matter where this fight takes place.

Magomedov has moved from -285 to -355 this week, making him an excellent value at $9,000, and he’s also favored to win inside the distance. If he can add some takedowns, it would be icing on the cake, but he’s both a safe and high-upside option here.

The Value Play

Luana Santos ($7,900)

Of the 12 fights on the card, 11 of them are +110 or shorter to end inside the distance. The 12th is Luana Santos vs. Karol Rosa ($8,300), which is +350.

That makes the (slight) underdog Santos a pretty clear floor play, especially with the line creeping her way this week. She also has some sneaky upside via her grappling, with 3 finishes in her 5 UFC wins, all coming on the ground.

Rosa has 12 fights in the UFC and has gone the distance all 12 times. Obviously that means she’s never been finished, which makes the upside path for Santos thinner, but it also means that the worst-case scenario is still likely to be a 15-minute fight. Santos only lands about 3 significant strikes per minute, so she could still have a poor score over 15 minutes, but her floor is raised considerably.

The other factor here is the age, with the 26-year-old Santos still likely on the way up, while Rosa, at 31, has probably peaked. There’s plenty of upside baked in to continuous improvement for the younger fighter, which might be enough to see some takedowns come to fruition.

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The Contrarian Choice

Otari Tanzilovi ($7,700)

Otari Tanzilovi (spelled “Tanzilov” in some places) is a moderate underdog against Shane Collins ($8,500) as both make their UFC debut on Saturday. Collins is a direct signing by the UFC, where Tanzilovi comes in following a close split decision loss to Josias Musasa on the 2024 Contender Series. That was the only blemish of his career, and he’s defeated a 7-1 regional opponent in the interim.

I was impressed by Tanzilovi’s grappling in his Contender Series bout, landing 4 takedowns on the dangerous Musasa while outstriking him 60 to 47 on the feet. Collins represents a similar threat as a dangerous striker with 4 knockouts in 7 pro wins and coming from a kickboxing background but has fought lesser competition and doesn’t have the extreme physical gifts of Musasa.

I noted Tanzilovi’s defensive limitations in my writeup of his Contender Series matchup, so he’s not without risk against a dangerous striker. However, he also has tons of upside with his grappling and could potentially win a striking matchup as well. With the line moving to Collins throughout the week, Tanzilovi is likely to be very contrarian, making him an excellent tournament play.

The Swing Fights

Navajo Stirling ($9,200) vs. Ion Cutelaba ($7,000)

This is a much wider line than I normally consider for a “swing fight,” but it fits the bill. That’s because of how the underdog Cutelaba typically fights, with a “first round or bust” mindset. He’s an extremely fast and aggressive starter, with 3 first-round finishes across his last 4 wins.

Stirling is a more patient, technical City Kickboxing product. He’s a high-volume striker who doesn’t take many risks, content to either out-point his opponents or wear them down with volume. The likeliest outcome here is Cutelaba attempting some early takedowns and either finishing Stirling on the ground if he finds success or gassing out in the effort if he doesn’t.

I discussed the binary (from a time standpoint) nature of this fight in our latest UFC Betting Preview, where I mentioned betting Cutelaba in the first round as well as taking the over on Stirling’s significant strikes. That works out well for DFS reasons, as either outcome would lead to a big score for the victor.

The ideal scenario for Stirling is probably a late attritional finish with plenty of volume along the way, which should be enough for the optimal lineup. Any win from Cutelaba probably gets there, but given his all-or-nothing style, it almost certainly comes with a huge score as well.

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Pictured: Manel Kape
Photo Credit: Imagn