The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob Misiorowski (R) $12,000 Milwaukee Brewers (-250) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Misiorowski checks in at a massive $12,000 price tag for Friday’s start vs. the Phillies, but it’s hard to argue he’s not worth it. He has arguably been the best pitcher in all of baseball this season. He’s pitched to a 1.50 ERA with some of the nastiest stuff in the league. Misiorowski’s average fastball velocity checks in at a whopping 100 miles per hour, and his 38.4% strikeout rate puts him in the 99th percentile. He’s had at least eight punchouts in all but two outings this season, and he’s hit that threshold in nine straight games.
Unsurprisingly, Misiorowski leads the slate in K Prediction on Friday. He’s projected for 9.14 against a Phillies’ lineup that has the fourth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season. No other pitcher has a K Prediction above 6.38, so the gap between Misiorowski and the rest of the field is massive.
Misiorowski also owns the top Vegas data on the slate. He’s the largest favorite of the day at -250, and his 3.0 opponent implied run total is nearly a full run better than every other pitcher. Shane McClanahan is second in that metric, and he’s all the way down at 3.8.
Fitting Misiorowski’s massive price tag into your lineups isn’t easy, but the upside is worth the effort. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.47 (per the Trends tool), making him the best pitching target on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Tanner Bibee (R) $7,300 Cleveland Guardians (-125) vs. Detroit Tigers
There have been a bunch of high-profile failures this season, which have kept the Tigers’ slide a bit under the radar. They’re currently 29-40 after finishing as one of the best teams in the American League last season. Losing Tarik Skubal certainly hasn’t helped, but the Tigers’ offense has also taken a massive step backward. They’re merely 22nd in the league in runs per game, and they’ve been below average in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.
Bibee will get to square off with Detroit on Friday, and he enters this matchup in excellent recent form. He’s coming off eight scoreless innings in his last outing, which is not something you see from a starter often in 2026. Bibee also went eight innings four starts ago, which was against these same Tigers. He’s gone at least six innings in five of his past six outings, so he provides solid upside at a middling price tag. He ultimately ranks second in the Fantasy Labs Models in projected Plus/Minus.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Trey Yesavage (R) $8,500 Toronto Blue Jays (-115) vs. New York Yankees
Yesavage broke onto the scene for the Blue Jays in the playoffs last season, and he has carried that success into this year. He’s pitched to a 2.78 xERA, and he’s racked up 9.28 strikeouts per nine innings. Yesavage has struggled in three straight outings, which has caused his price tag to dip to $8,500. That creates some buy-low appeal vs. the Yankees. Their lineup isn’t nearly as intimidating without Aaron Judge, and Yesavage racked up 32.3 DraftKings points in his only start vs. the Yankees this season. Their lineup has the seventh-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers this season, so he has plenty of upside at $8,500.
Nick Lodolo (L) $6,700 Cincinnati Reds (-117) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Lodolo has not looked like himself so far this season. He has a 5.51 ERA and paltry 6.89 K/9, both of which are far below his career norms. He was at 3.33 and 8.96, respectively, last season, and he should be able to get back on track at some point in the future. He’s far from a slam dunk vs. the Diamondbacks, but he leads all starters in projected Plus/Minus and is projected for less than 5% ownership.
Shane Baz (R) $7,800 Baltimore Orioles (-133) vs. San Diego Padres
Baz was acquired to boost the Orioles’ pitching staff this season, and he has mostly been a disappointment. His numbers are down across the board, but perhaps a matchup vs. the Padres will help turn things around. San Diego has been awful offensively this season, ranking dead last in baseball in runs per game. They’re 28th in wRC+ and have the fifth-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers, so it’s a great spot for Baz to get his season on track.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected Plus/Minus belongs to the Athletics:
The Athletics are currently getting a taste of what life could be like in their new ballpark. They’re currently in the midst of a six-game homestand in Vegas, and their offense looked right at home. They scored 25 runs across the first three games, and they swatted a ridiculous 15 homers. Vegas was always expected to be a friendly hitting environment, and their three-game series vs. the Brewers certainly did not disappoint.
The Athletics have the potential to do a lot more damage on Friday. The total on this game sits at a whopping 14.0 runs, which is a number that would make Coors Field blush. The A’s 8.2 implied team total is the top mark of the day by a wide margin, with the Rockies ranking a distant second.
Zach Agnos will open for the Rockies on Friday, but it is unclear who will follow him as the “bulk” reliever. Regardless, they’re going to have a tough time shutting down a good A’s lineup in a nearly impossible situation. The weather conditions in Vegas should turn the stadium into a launching pad, especially with the power that they possess.
The top Athletics stack is pretty reasonably priced, but they’re going to be tough to fit around Misiorowski. You’ll need to punt SP2 and basically every other offensive spot in your lineup, but it is doable. If you’re choosing to fade Misiorowski, loading up on all the offensive firepower in this stadium stands out as an excellent alternative. If we get another game like we saw on Monday – 29 total runs with 11 homers – it could pay massive dividends.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Cole Carrigg, OF ($2,800) Colorado Rockies at Athletics (Gage Jump)
The Rockies will benefit from the same offensive environment as the A’s on Friday. They will have a slightly tougher task against Gage Jump, and their offense isn’t nearly as impressive in general. However, their batters are also available at deep discounts.
Carrigg stands out as one of their strongest targets. He owns the top projected Plus/Minus among non-Athletics batters on Friday’s slate. He entered the season as the Rockies’ No. 7 prospect per FanGraphs, and he has delivered in his first taste of MLB action. He’s already launched a homer through his first three starts while posting a 169 wRC+. He’s ultimately a great way to save some salary while still getting exposure to the expected offensive bonanza in Vegas.
Jeremy Pena, SS ($4,100) Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals (Luinder Avila)
With all the attention being paid to Athletics-Rockies, most of the other games and offenses should fly a bit under the radar. Pena stands out as a strong target at shortstop. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus using our blended projection set, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.58 across his past 10 games.
Pena had a breakout offensive season in 2025, and he’s putting together another quality year at the dish this season. He’s been limited to just 32 games due to injury, but he’s posted a 116 wRC+ when active. He has the potential to swipe a bag or hit a homer, and players with upside in both categories are always attractive for fantasy purposes. Opposing pitcher Luinder Avila has handed out free passes in bunches this season (5.46 BB/9), and if Pena can draw a walk, he should have the green light to go for second.
Yandy Diaz, 1B/3B ($5,200) Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels (Sam Aldegheri)
Diaz has emerged as one of the most complete hitters in baseball, and he should always be on your radar against a southpaw. His numbers in that split have been tremendous so far this season (via Plate IQ):
The Rays are currently implied for 5.2 runs vs. Sam Aldegheri and the Angels, and that would be good enough to lead some slates. They have the potential to do plenty of damage in this spot.
Pictured: Jacob Misiorowski
Photo Credit: Imagn
