Sunday features a do-or-die Game 7 between the Detroit Pistons and the Cleveland Cavaliers at 8 p.m. ET. The Pistons are listed as 4.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 205.5 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The Pistons won Game 6 in Cleveland on Friday despite a pedestrian performance from Cade Cunningham. He’s been their best player all season, but he struggled to just 34.5 DraftKings points in Game 6. He shot just 7-for-19 from the field, while he also had seven turnovers.
That said, Cunningham has still had a very good playoffs overall. He’s averaged 29.3 points, 7.7 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per game, and no one on this slate has been better on a per-minute basis. Before his last contest, he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of 12 playoff outings.
Cunningham did log 42 minutes in Game 6, and he’s projected for a slate-best 42 minutes once again in Game 7. That gives him a great chance of bouncing back. Cunningham owns the top median and ceiling projections in our NBA Models, and he’s second in projected Plus/Minus.
On the other side, Donovan Mitchell has been the Cavaliers’ No. 1 option offensively this season. He led the team with a 32.2% usage rate during the regular season, and he’s been at 31.4% during the playoffs. His scoring has been a bit down during the postseason (25.9 points per game), but he’s shooting just 31.0% from 3-point range. With some better shooting luck moving forward, he should see a boost in production.
Mitchell has been up and down in this series. In Games 2 through 4, Mitchell scored 47.0, 54.5, and 55.75 DraftKings points. In the other three contests, Mitchell has had just 33.5, 30.0, and 29.0. Mitchell is coming off his worst game of the series in Game 6, but he shot just 6-for-20 from the field.
The good news is that Mitchell has a solid track record of production in elimination games. He wasn’t great in Game 7 vs. the Raptors this season, but he’s still averaged 27.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in 10 career contests. If he can produce at that level, he’ll be a nice option at $10,400.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Unlike Mitchell, James Harden has a track record of disappearing in the most important games. In the four previous seasons, Harden has averaged just 10.75 points in games where his team was ultimately eliminated. He was a bit better in Game 7 vs. the Raptors in Round 1, but he still had just 18 points on 3-for-9 shooting. It’s a far cry from the type of statistics that he’s posted throughout the regular season for his career.
However, Harden enters this game in solid recent form. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s eclipsed 51 DraftKings points in two of them. He’s led the Cavs in usage in the past two contests, so he’s been picking up the slack for the struggling Mitchell.
If Harden can continue to perform at that level, he stands out as an excellent value at just $9,800. He ranks third on the slate in projected Plus/Minus, and he owns a slightly higher ceiling projection than Mitchell at a cheaper price tag. Now, all he has to do is live up to expectations.
Evan Mobley has also given the Cavaliers solid production of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, providing value in every category across the board. He’s averaged 18 points, 7.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 3.3 blocks per game during that stretch, resulting in an average of 44.5 DraftKings points per game.
Mobley also posted a 25.0% usage rate in Game 6, which was his top mark of the series. That gives him a bit of added scoring upside. He’s not going to play quite as much as the top backcourt options, but he can make up for it with his ability in the peripheral categories. He ranks first on the slate in projected Plus/Minus.
Tobias Harris has been a constant for the Pistons for most of the playoffs, but he has disappeared over the past two games. He had just 13 points on 6-for-19 shooting in Game 5, and he slumped to six points in less than 25 minutes in Game 6.
How much Harris will play in Game 7 is a major question mark. His lack of minutes in Game 6 is a red flag, though he’s still projected for 37 minutes in our NBA Models. If he can find his form from earlier this playoffs, he has the potential to be a solid value at $8,600. If he doesn’t, he might find himself on the bench for long stretches. That makes him a high-risk, high-reward option.
The same can be said for Ausar Thompson. The Pistons got a bit healthier for Game 6 with Duncan Robinson returning after missing Game 5, and Thompson played just 24.4 minutes, although foul trouble could have been as much of a culprit as Robinson’s return.
However, Thompson remained extremely productive despite his limited playing time. He racked up 10 points, nine rebounds, four assists, and four steals, finishing with 36.25 DraftKings points.
Ultimately, Thompson has a wide range of outcomes. He’s talented enough that he can produce in limited playing time, but he’s also had some clunkers in this series. He had less than 30 DraftKings points in Games 2 through 4, so as long as the team is healthy, he seems a bit overpriced.
Jarrett Allen has become much more important to the Cavaliers during the playoffs. He averaged just 27.1 minutes per game during the regular season, but he’s up to 29.2 in the postseason. He’s played even more than that in this matchup, logging at least 30.2 minutes in five straight games.
With that much playing time, Allen is certainly a factor at $7,200. He’s projected for 32 minutes in Game 7, and Allen has averaged 34.24 DraftKings points with a comparable minute projection as a member of the Cavaliers (per the Trends tool). He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past five contests, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again.
It was nice to see Jalen Duren break out of a massive slump in his last contest. He still wasn’t quite as good as he was during the regular season, but his 15 points and 11 rebounds were a step in the right direction. He ultimately finished with 38.25 DraftKings points, which was his second-highest output of the playoffs.
The big question is, can he do it again? I’m a bit skeptical. Duren still played just 27.5 minutes in that contest, and his stat line was inflated by three blocks. That’s the same amount he had in the first five games combined. I’m willing to bet on some regression for him in Game 7, especially with Duren ranking sixth on the slate in projected ownership.
Despite Robinson returning to the lineup for Game 6, Daniss Jenkins maintained his spot in the starting lineup. He didn’t play quite as much as he did in Game 5, but he still racked up 24.75 DraftKings points in 30.6 minutes. That was just enough to pay off his $6,000 price tag.
Jenkins is up to $6,400 for Game 7, and it’s harder to get excited about him at that figure. He’s not an elite per-minute producer, and he’s simply middle of the pack in terms of projected Plus/Minus. As long as Robinson and LeVert are in the lineup, and both players are currently questionable, Jenkins stands out as a middling value.
Max Strus was instrumental in the Cavaliers’ upset in Game 5. He knocked down six 3-pointers, and he ultimately finished with 38.5 DraftKings points in 36.2 minutes. Unfortunately, he didn’t have the same success in Game 6, shooting just 2-for-9 from the field en route to 16.5 DraftKings points.
Strus stands out as a classic “boom-or-bust” option for DFS purposes. On nights when his shot is falling, he can massively outproduce his price tag. On nights when he’s cold, he’s going to be a big disappointment. The good news is that he’s at least proven that he can make shots in Detroit.
Robinson came off the bench in his return to the lineup in Game 6. He ultimately finished with just 20.2 minutes of playing time, well below what he had played earlier in the series.
However, he still managed to knock down four 3-pointers and rack up 21.5 DraftKings points. He’s similar to Strus in that he can provide value when he’s able to get hot from the 3-point line. Unfortunately, the reduction in playing time for Game 6 makes that outcome less likely unless he regains his starting spot.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Paul Reed ($4,800): There are some solid values to consider on this slate, with Reed chief among them. He’s served as the Pistons’ No. 3 center all season, but he has emerged as a legit factor in this series. He’s racked up at least 25.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s been extremely active when he’s been on the floor. He likely won’t see more than 17-18 minutes in Game 7, but that’s enough for him to do some serious damage.
- Caris LeVert ($4,200): LeVert saw a nice bump in playing time in Game 6. He finished with just under 29 minutes, and he responded with 20.25 DraftKings points. He’s now posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of six games in this series, and one of the exceptions was a game in which he saw just nine minutes. There’s no guarantee he plays as much as he did in Game 6 if his teammates, particularly Thompson, avoid foul trouble, but he has solid upside for his price tag.
- Dennis Schroder ($3,400): Schroder put together some decent performances at the beginning of this series, but he has seen fewer minutes as things have progressed. He’s coming off his worst game in Game 6, finishing with just 5.5 DraftKings points in 15.3 minutes. Harden and Mitchell figure to get most of the backcourt minutes in Game 7, giving Schroder less appeal than usual.
- Dean Wade ($2,800): Wade is the NBA equivalent of a wide receiver who runs a lot of routes with minimal targets. He’s technically on the floor quite a bit for his price tag, but you wouldn’t know it from his results. He’s had single-digit fantasy points in four straight games, and he’s attempted just five total shots in those contests. There’s no reason to expect much different in Game 7.
- Sam Merrill ($2,000): Conversely, Merrill is a legit threat when he’s on the floor. He’s out there for his perimeter shooting, so he’s not afraid to let it fly. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s one of the best pure values of the day at $2,000. He ranks fourth on the slate in projected Plus/Minus, and using him allows you to load up the rest of your lineup with studs.
- Isaiah Stewart ($1,400): Stewart has fallen behind Reed in the pecking order, and he was relegated to fewer than five minutes in Game 6. He’s a non-factor at the moment.
- Kevin Huerter ($1,000): Huerter returned to the lineup in Game 5, but he did not see the court in Game 6. Even if he’s healthy enough to play, there’s no guarantee he gets off the pine.
Pictured: Cade Cunningham
Photo Credit: Ken Blaze, Imagn
