The top seeds in each Conference are back in action this Saturday as the Detroit Pistons and Oklahoma City Thunder go on the road for Game 3. The Pistons visit the Cleveland Cavaliers at 3:00 p.m. ET, and then the Thunder take on the Los Angeles Lakers at 8:30 p.m. ET. The two games give us a solid slate for DFS fantasy basketball, so let see what the FantasyLabs projections and models have to say about how to assemble your lineup for this two-game Saturday slate.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
In the FantasyLabs projections, Cade Cunningham has the highest median projections of any player on the slate at any position. He also has the third-highest Pts/Sal at the position, which is unusual since his salary has climbed all the way to $11,100.
In Game 1, Cunningham had 23 points, seven assists, and 40.25 DraftKings points in 42 minutes, and in Game 2, he had 25 points, 10 assists, and 50.25 DraftKings points in 42 minutes. He was actually even better than the first two games in this series during the regular season and in the last few games of the first round against the Magic. He had two games with 59 DraftKings points and a game with 56.75 DraftKings points to help his team advance in seven games.
The fact that the Pistons are up 2-0 in the series but have yet to have Cade’s best game could be a bad sign for the Cavaliers. If Game 3 is close and competitive throughout, Cunningham is almost certain to have a heavy workload, and he has the potential to post a monster Game 3.
Value
One of the keys to the Pistons going from on the verge of elimination to looking like they’re ready to make reservations for the Conference Finals has been the emergence of Daniss Jenkins. Jenkins has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of any player on the slate and the highest at point guard by a wide margin.
Jenkins had stepped up in the regular season when Cunningham was injured, but he was quiet in the playoffs until stepping up with 16 points, five assists, and 29.75 DraftKings points in Game 7 against Orlando.
He continued that success in the first two games of the series in Detroit, posting 12 points, seven rebounds, four steals, and three assists in 29 minutes in Game 1 against the Cavs, racking up an impressive 32.75 DraftKings points. In Game 2, he had 14 points, six rebounds, four assists, and 28 DraftKings points.
He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those three games by a wide margin, and he has become a key contributor in multiple categories. Even with his salary climbing to $4,400, he’s one of the top value plays on the board.
Fast Break
A little like the Pistons with Cunningham, the Thunder have impressively won the first two games with down games from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA had a very quiet Game 1 with just 18 points and 32 DraftKings points in 35 minutes, and he was on the bench with foul trouble when the Thunder made their big push in Game 2, finishing with 22 points and 28.5 DraftKings points. Even though he’s been quiet so far, he still has a sky-high ceiling since he’ll carry the offense if the Lakers keep this game close enough to push the Thunder down the stretch.
James Harden has taken plenty of heat for his turnover issues and nonchalance as the Cavs went down 0-2. The veteran PG had 22 points and 45.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 but crashed with only 10 points and 22 DraftKings points in Game 2. Cleveland needs him to take care of the ball and step up his scoring if they want to climb back in this series. He’s much more affordable than Cade and SGA, but he does come with lots of volatility along with his upside.
With SGA quiet and Jalen Williams (hamstring) out, Ajay Mitchell has helped pick up the scoring slack for OKC. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in every game in the postseason for the Thunder, producing 25+ DraftKings points in five straight games. He had 22 points and 36.5 DraftKings points in the closeout game against the Suns and had 20 points in 30 minutes for 31.75 DraftKings points against the Lakers in Game 2. He’s a great mid-range option and has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
When breaking down a slate, it can be helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. While it’s very close in the FantasyLabs projections, the ShotQuality projections make it very clear that Donovan Mitchell is the preferred option at shooting guard with the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position.
Throughout the playoffs, Mitchell has carried the scoring load for Cleveland while Harden helps with some of the non-scoring and ball-handling responsibilities. Spida stepped up with 31 points and 47 DraftKings points to exceed salary-based expectations in Game 2, but the Cavs still came up just short. He had 23 points and 33.5 DraftKings points in Game 1, so his Game 2 numbers were a nice bounce-back performance.
Both sets of projections point to him as one of the best pay-up plays to build around this Saturday, as he has been consistently getting so much usage and will be in a spot where he has to step up again in Game 3 to make the series competitive.
Value
In the FantasyLabs projections, Cason Wallace has the highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard. He comes in with a very affordable salary of only $4,100, but he continues to contribute across the board for the Thunder, especially with Williams still unavailable.
Wallace has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games dating back to the last round. He had 10 points and 25 DraftKings points in Game 4 against Phoenix and then had 20.5 and 25.5 DraftKings points in the first two games of this series.
While most of his contributions come at the defensive end of the floor, he can be a streaky scorer and hit some outside shots as well. He had a playoff-high 12 points in Game 2 and will look to build on his momentum in Game 3 while continuing to be part of the physical, swarming defense that is giving the Lakers so much trouble.
Fast Break
Before getting into it with the refs, Austin Reaves had a monster game in Game 2, scoring a career playoff-best 31 points and finishing with 41.5 DraftKings points in 38 minutes. Clearly, he’s past the injury that sidelined him early in the playoffs, but he is still a boom-or-bust fantasy contributor at this high salary after only eight points in Game 1.
Duncan Robinson has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projections at shooting guard and the fourth-highest in the ShotQuality projections. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games for the Pistons and averaged 18 points and 30.9 DraftKings points in the first two games of this series. Robinson has double-digit points in five straight games and seven of his last eight and has brought key outside shooting to the Pistons offense, providing both a high floor and a high ceiling.
Max Strus has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard in the ShotQuality projections and is a boom-or-bust play since his outside shooting can be so streaky. He had a big Game 1 with 31.75 DraftKings points, but he only managed 12.75 DraftKings points in Game 2 with three points on 1-for-6 shooting from the field in 28 minutes. He’s getting enough time to bring great value potential, but he remains volatile
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
While none of the four teams on this slate have a superstar at small forward, Ausar Thompson has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position in both sets of projections. He has played big minutes throughout the playoffs and can contribute in multiple categories when he’s at his best.
Thompson had a big Game 1 with 11 points, eight rebounds, five assists, and 32 DraftKings points. He cooled off in Game 2 with 10 points and 25.75 DraftKings points as he dealt with foul trouble, but he still added two steals, two assists, and seven rebounds to keep his per-minute contributions high.
If he can stay out of foul trouble in Game 3, he has a higher ceiling and should be worth his $6,700 salary.
Value
After playing his most minutes in the playoffs in Game 2 and exceeding salary-based expectations, Jalen Tyson has the second-highest Plus/Minus projections at small forward in the ShotQuality projections and the fourth-highest in the FantasyLabs projections.
Tyson exceeded salary-based expectations for the third time in the playoffs with 14.75 DraftKings points on seven points and five rebounds in 22 minutes in Game 2. He offers more scoring upside than many of the other Cavaliers options off the bench, but his playing time hadn’t been over 21 minutes since the start of the playoffs.
When the Cavs had injuries earlier this season, Tyson stepped up with some huge games and could be very productive if he gets more work on Saturday in Game 3. He doesn’t have to do much to be worth his salary of only $3,400.
Fast Break
Even with Reaves returning to a more prominent role, Marcus Smart still exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the first two games in this series, posting 33.5 and 27.5 DraftKings points. He showed an even higher ceiling with 51 and 56 DraftKings points in Game 2 and Game 3 of Round 1, but his role is uncertain with Reaves’ return to prominence. He is still helping to cover for the absence of Luka Doncic (hamstring), so minutes should be available even if his ceiling is capped by lower usage than when he went off or 50+. Smart has the highest Plus/Minus projections at both shooting guard and small forward in the ShotQuality projections.
Rui Hachimura has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward in both sets of projections after posting 28.5 and 27.0 DraftKings points in the first two games of this series. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight playoff games and has scored at least 16 points in each of his last three contests.
Alex Caruso had 20 DraftKings points in Game 2 and plenty of words to share with LeBron and the Lakers. The Carushow was very popular in L.A. during his run with the Lakers, and it’ll be interesting to see how he responds in Game 3. At just $4,000, he’s an interesting play with upside, although he doesn’t typically get a ton of usage, which caps his ceiling.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
As the Lakers come home for Game 3, they’ll need another huge effort from LeBron James as they try to extend their season without Luka. Once again, LeBron has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward on this slate, but he is a little pricey compared to his production so far in this series.
He had 43.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 39.5 DraftKings points in Game 2, falling short of salary-based expectations in each contest. He’s still so critical to everything the Lakers do on offense, though, that he brings too high of a ceiling to overlook as you plan your strategy for Saturday.
James has an extremely high ceiling since we’ve all seen how dominant “Playoff LeBron” can be. He had 50+ DraftKings points in three games against the Rockets, and he will be a strong stud to build around if he returns to that level Saturday.
Value
The ShotQuality projections give Tobias Harris the highest Plus/Minus projection at power forward by a wide margin, and the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate. The FantasyLabs projections aren’t quite as high on Harris, but the veteran has had an impressive playoff run for Detroit.
Even though he got banged up in Game 2, he exceeded salary-based expectations for the ninth time in his last 10 games and had 20+ points for the seventh straight game. He finished with 38.25 DraftKings points in 37 minutes after posting 35 DraftKings points in 39 minutes in Game 1.
He has been instrumental to the Pistons’ postseason success, and even though he’s over $7,000, the ShotQuality projections still have him as one of the best values on the board. He’s a strong alternative if you think paying up for LeBron won’t be worth the salary cap hit.
Fast Break
In the FantasyLabs projections, Chet Holmgren has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at power forward after three straight games exceeding salary-based expectations. He had exactly 24 points and 12 rebounds in back-to-back games coming into Game 2 and then posted 22 points and nine rebounds in 32 minutes to get to 50+ DraftKings points for a second straight game. With Williams out and SGA quiet, Holmgren has been key to the Thunder winning the first two games in this series, and he’s a solid play under $8,000 if he stays so involved and continues to dominate his matchup against the Lakers.
With all those big names at the position, there aren’t many bargain plays that make sense. Jaylon Tyson (discussed above) has the best Plus/Minus projections of the options under $7,000 in both sets of projections. His teammate Dean Wade continues to get meaningful minutes but does not contribute many stats. Isaiah Stewart brings energy, swagger, and hustle off the bench for the Pistons, but he hasn’t been involved enough to be a great fantasy play.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
With the series shifting to Cleveland, Evan Mobley has slightly better projections for this Game 3 matchup than Jalen Duren. Mobley has the top projections across the board at center, and he will need to come up big for the Cavs to climb back into the series with a Game 3 win.
Mobley had 37.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 and fell just one rebound short of a double-double. In Game 2, he only had nine points and one rebound in 36 minutes for 27.75 DraftKings points. He had three steals and three blocks, contributing strong play on defense, but he’ll have to step up more on offense in Game 3.
The projections indicate a bounce-back game, and against the Raptors in the first round, Mobley had over 45 DraftKings points in two of the final three games in the series. In his showcase matchup with Duren, the Cavs need him to step up with a stronger performance in Game 3.
Value
Another critical component to the Cavaliers making this a series is getting good production from Jarrett Allen, who has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all of Saturday’s players in both sets of projections.
In Game 7 against the Raptors, the big man went off for 22 points, 19 rebounds, and 58.75 DraftKings points. In Game 1, he was limited to only 18 minutes and two points by foul trouble, totaling only 8.75 DraftKings points.
He did bounce back in Game 2 with 22 points and 38.75 DraftKings points, exceeding salary-based expectations for the third time in his last four games. He’s $2,000 cheaper than Mobley and has been more consistent with non-scoring production. With the exception of his game with foul trouble, he’s been the better play lately, so he makes sense to include in most of your roster builds on Saturday night.
Fast Break
Jalen Duren has a very high ceiling, but has been hit or miss in the postseason. He had eight points and 21 DraftKings points in Game 2 after a strong showing with 37 DraftKings points in Game 1. Mobley and Allen typically do a good job on the interior, so Duren is a high-risk play as the series heads to Cleveland, but he always has double-double potential with a high ceiling.
Isaiah Hartenstein has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his six playoff games, including each of his last three. He fell just one rebound short of a double-double in Game 2 against the Lakers, posting over 29 DraftKings points for the third straight contest. His best game during that stretch was a double-double that earned him 40 DraftKings points against the Suns in Game 4 of the Thunder’s first-round sweep.
If you are looking to go even cheaper at center, both Jaxson Hayes and Jaylin Williams stuff the stat sheet in their time on the floor, but both are in limited roles as backup bigs. Hayes has the slightly higher Plus/Minus projection of the two punt plays since his salary is barely over the minimum.
