Thursday features a six-game main slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Luka Doncic is the clear-cut best pay-up option on this six-game slate. He has the highest ceiling in our NBA Model by nearly double-digit points on both DraftKings and FanDuel. In his last three games without Christian Wood, Doncic has recorded a double-double in each game, averaging 34.7 points and 12.3 rebounds. His scoring has increased, and he’s also averaging a team-high 16.7 rebound chances per game over that span.
This is a familiar matchup for Doncic, who basically single-handily took out the Suns in the second round of the Western Conference playoffs last season. In the previous two seasons, including their playoff series, Doncic averaged 32.4 points with a 41.3% usage rate per game in 10 contests vs. the Suns. Scoring a career and league-high 33.8 points with a 38% usage rate, Doncic is deserving of his $12,000+ price tag on both sites in this matchup.
Value
Priced close to the minimum on both sites, Ricky Rubio is the value point guard of choice. It is believed that Donovan Mitchell could miss multiple games, which will open up the door for more Rubio playing time. He has yet to play 20 minutes in a game since returning from injury, but Rubio has scored over 17 DraftKings points in the last two games that Mitchell was unable to play, and we have him projected for nearly 20 tonight.
A big reason why Rubio looks like such a good value is this matchup against the Rockets, who rank 28th in Defensive Rating while allowing 117.2 points per game. The Rockets have the worst record in the league as the Cavaliers are trying to climb back up the Eastern Conference standings. Rubio is known for stuffing the stat sheet, and he can do so in this matchup. All he needs is playing time, and he can be one of the best salary savers on the slate.
Fast Break
Kyrie Irving has been sensational over the last four games without Kevin Duran, averaging 36.5 points and 64.9 DraftKings points per game. Priced barely over $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Irving looks like a strong option when not paying up for Doncic. Not only is Irving playing great, but this is an elite matchup against the Pistons, who rank second-to-last in Defensive Rating (118.3) entering tonight’s games.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The shooting guard position is flooded with upper mid-range talent as Paul George is our stud of choice. Since returning from injury, George has been on a rollercoaster. However, in his last game in the “Battle of LA,” he played 36 minutes and poured in 26 points on 11 of 20 shooting. Priced at $8,200 on FanDuel, George has a 91% Bargain Rating paired with 11 Pro Trends, which is quite high for this six-game slate.
Kawhi Leonard may be back, but everyone can eat in this matchup against the Spurs. They rank last in Defensive Rating, allowing a league-high 121.8 points per game. The Spurs are also the only team allowing their opponents to shoot over 50% from the field and nearly 40% from behind the arc. The Clippers are double-digit favorites and implied for a slate-high 122 points, making George a great player to get exposure to tonight.
Value
Like Irving, Seth Curry has been fantastic recently. He is coming off a season-high 32 points with seven 3-pointers. That was the second-highest-scoring game of his career, while his salary didn’t flinch on either DraftKings or FanDuel. Curry owns one of the top projected Plus/Minuses on both sites at the guard position. Coming off his last game, Curry is projected to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Not only are the Pistons a poor defense overall, but they have also been torched from downtown. They are allowing opponents to shoot 36.2% from behind the arc, which is fantastic news for the sharp-shooting Curry. He isn’t quite as good as Stephen Curry, but Seth Curry is shooting 43.3% from downtown, which is the seventh-straight season he is shooting over 40%. He is nearly in the elusive 50-40-90 club this season.
Curry is a cheap way to get exposure to this elite matchup against the Pistons.
Fast Break
There are several other shooting guard options, but Zach LaVine is another strong candidate. His last game was terrible, but before that, LaVine scored 20+ points in eight consecutive games while averaging 30.5 per game over that span. The Hornets are another cupcake matchup as they rank 10th in Pace and have the fourth-worst Defensive Rating. This game features the highest total on the slate at 234 points, which is also very intriguing.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Outside of Luka Doncic, Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum is the second-most expensive player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Jaylen Brown and Malcolm Brogdon are no longer on the injury report, but Marcus Smart remains out for the Celtics in this Atlantic Division clash against the Knicks. Despite back-to-back losses, the Celtics hold the best record in the league, and Tatum is the best player on the team, averaging a career-high 31 points per game.
The Knicks rank middle of the pack defensively, but Tatum feels like a player worth targeting. In his lone matchup against the Knicks this season, Tatum made six 3-pointers on his way to 26 points in the Celtics’ blowout win. Over the last four games, Tatum has attempted 12+ free throw attempts three times while posting over 70 DraftKings points twice. His aggressive nature has made his ceiling so much higher. Tatum may not look as good as Doncic but is worth getting exposure to as a contrarian tournament option.
Value
After recommending Dorian Finney-Smith on Tuesday’s slate, we’re going to dive a little bit lower in the Mavericks pricing section and recommend Josh Green. He is small forward eligible on DraftKings and shooting guard eligible on FanDuel. Green has the highest projected Plus/Minus at this position on DraftKings at $3,500 with an 88% Bargain Rating. He has scored over 20 DraftKings points in two of his last three games.
Using our On/Off Tool, Green has seen a significant boost with Christian Wood off the floor this season. In his third season in the league, Green is averaging a career-high 8.7 points per game while shooting an absurd 58.1% from the field and 45.3% from behind the arc. Playing alongside Luka Doncic presents so many more open opportunities, especially when Wood — who is averaging 18.4 points per game — is unlikely to play.
Fast Break
Kawhi Leonard and DeMar DeRozan look like strong plays in their own right. Leonard has a matchup against his old team and has averaged 51.3 DraftKings points per game over his last three games. DeRozan gets a great matchup against the Hornets and has averaged 45.3 DraftKings points over his last three games. DeRozan is expected to be the much higher owned of the two, especially on FanDuel, reaching over 35%.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
It is impressive what Julius Randle has done in his ninth season in the league. He is averaging a career-high 26.4 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. Randle has been on an absolute tear ever since the middle of December. Over that span, he has recorded a double-double in 20 of his 22 games, averaging a ridiculous 27.5 points and 13.6 rebounds per game.
The Celtics have been one of the best defenses in the league once again. They rank fourth in Defensive Rating while only allowing 112 points per game. The Celtics also rank inside the top 10 in points allowed in the paint. Despite the problematic matchup, Randle scored 29 points on 10 of 19 shooting with nine rebounds in their first meeting. Coming in at pretty low ownership, Randle is another way to get different in this Celtics and Knicks matchup.
Value
Like Rubio, Kevin Love hasn’t seen the playing time recently but looks like a great value priced near the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Love is projected to play over 20 minutes, which he can easily exceed value with his low price across the industry. Prioritize Love on DraftKings, where he is $3,400 with an 88% Bargain Rating.
If getting exposure to Love is too risky, settle with Evan Mobley. With Donovan Mitchell off the floor this season, Mobley has seen a +3.2% bump to his usage rate. Darius Garland may draw a lot of attention among DFS players, and rightfully so, but don’t forget about the Cavaliers’ big men, who also receive an uptick in production and usage rate. The Rockets’ defense is more than friendly to everyone involved.
Fast Break
Ben Simmons has had a decrease in production recently but still has triple-double upside, especially in this matchup at home against the Pistons. They are allowing the sixth-most rebounds and assists to their opponents, which is why this is such an intriguing spot for the stat-stuffer Simmons. The Pistons also allow the second-most points in the paint with 55.2 per game.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
With no Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid on this slate, the center position looks wide open. Leading the way with the highest ceiling in our NBA Models is Bulls center Nikola Vucevic. He has shown to be the model of consistency, which is perfect for cash games. Vucevic scored 40+ DraftKings points in 11 consecutive games while averaging a double-double with 20.3 points and 13.4 rebounds per game.
Reaching a double-double is basically a lock for Vucevic tonight as the Hornets rank in the bottom 10 in both points allowed in the paint and Rebounding Percentage this season. He also has shown more upside recently as he tied his career-high with 43 points against the Warriors four games ago. With the highest total on the slate, it makes sense to reach for Vucevic, who has a slate-high 14 Pro Trends and a 96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Value
Zach Collins has the highest projected Plus/Minus at just $3,700 on DraftKings. He is -$1,600 cheaper on DraftKings than on FanDuel, resulting in a 99% Bargain Rating. The minutes for Collins continue to rise, while the playing time for Jakob Poeltl is falling, and they are at nearly a 50/50 split over the last four games. Collins has scored double-digit points in three-straight games while recording over 30 DraftKings points in last night’s game against the Lakers. At $3,700, that type of production doesn’t come around too often.
The Clippers are below average in points allowed in the paint, and Collins’ minutes should be safe even in a blowout. In his second season with the Spurs, Collins is averaging a career-high 9.7 points per game while shooting 54.3% from the field. Even with his power forward and center eligibility on FanDuel, Collins needs to be prioritized on DraftKings, where he is way too cheap for his projected output.
Fast Break
We will find out tonight if Alperen Sengun is matchup-proof against a Cavaliers frontcourt with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. The rookie has been on a mission recently and has turned into a mini-Jokic. Sengun recorded his second triple-double of the month last game and has averaged 56.6 DraftKings points per game over his last five. The Cavaliers Twin Towers present a difficult matchup, but Sengun is tough to fade given his recent production.
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