The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Paul Skenes (R) $10,300 Pittsburgh Pirates (-225) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Last year’s NL Cy Young winner is the front-runner to repeat, and he’s begun his second full season in the majors right where he left off last season. Skenes’ ERA is slightly higher this year at 2.48 than the sub-2.00 mark he finished with last year, but his 1.94 xERA suggests he’s hit a bit of bad luck more than he’s regressed in a meaningful way.
One number that might be slightly concerning for DFS purposes is his strikeouts. Skenes’ strikeout rate, swinging strike rate, and K/9 are all somewhat down from last season, as is his average fastball velocity. However, with his ability to keep runs off the board, it’s not quite a deal breaker. But at nearly $1,000 more than any other pitcher on the slate, we need the upside that strikeouts provide.
Skenes is also projecting for the highest ownership of any player on the slate. That makes me view him as a better fit for cash games than GPPs. He’s almost certainly a very safe pick, but the odds of Skenes outperforming every other pitcher by enough to justify the extra $1,000 in salary are probably a bit less than his ownership. With that said, fading him is scary: he has the highest median and ceiling projection on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Cristopher Sanchez (L) $9,200 Philadelphia Phillies (-143) vs. San Francisco Giants
Sanchez was my favorite pitching option yesterday, when I broke down how he compared favorably to Tarik Skubal. That became moot when the Phillies home game against the Giants was rained out, pushing Sanchez’s start back until today.
For some reason, we’re getting a $500 discount on his relative to his price yesterday, in a similar setup. He’s a close second in both median and ceiling projections to the more expensive Skenes, with both of their opponents implied for a similar total. Naturally, Sanchez being $1,000 cheaper makes him the better Pts/Sal option, and he leads the slate in that category.
His numbers compare favorably to Skenes’ overall, with better strikeout and swinging-strike rates and a slightly higher ERA, while averaging more innings per start. He also has the better matchup, with the Giants’ wRC+ against lefties about ten points lower than the Cardinals’ against righties.
With Sanchez projected for slightly lower ownership, he’s the better GPP play in my book. The only counterargument is that having his start pushed back a day might disrupt his timing/preparation, but I’m not convinced there’s any merit to that.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Andrew Abbott (L) $6,700 Cincinnati Reds (-171) vs. Colorado Rockies
I got burned yesterday on a pitcher facing the Rockies away from Coors Field, as Colorado exploded for 13 runs in Cincinnati last night. That offensive explosion moved them up to 28th in the league in wRC+ against lefties, while their 28% strikeout rate is second-highest against southpaws. Andrew Abbott isn’t great, but is he good enough to justify his $6,700 price tag against one of the league’s worst offenses? Maybe. He trails only Sanchez in Pts/Sal projection.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds were the top team in our tournament model yesterday, but it didn’t work out: they scored just two runs in their drubbing by the visiting Rockies. However, given their price tag and slate-leading 5.2-run implied total, they’re projecting as the top team again today.
A lot of that has to do with the pitching matchup against Michael Lorenzen ($5,700). He has a 5.97 ERA, and his park-adjusted xERA is 5.59. That means only about half of a run of his ERA is caused by a brutal home ball park; the rest he’s earned the hard way.
Plus, Great American Ball Park is also a very hitter-friendly place to play, and it produces more home runs than Coors. With Lorenzen’s inability to miss bats (8.9% swinging strike rate), that could be a problem for him tonight. More importantly, the Reds are cheap enough that you can roster two of the slate’s top pitchers, which might be the key to cashing big even if Cincinnati doesn’t put up crazy numbers.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Hunter Goodman C ($4,400) Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
Goodman was a massive part of the Rockies’ offensive explosion yesterday, hitting two home runs and finishing with 39 DraftKings points in their 13-2 rout. While it’s a little bit point-chasey to go back to him tonight, he’s facing another lefty starter, which was a large part of his success last night. I’ll let PlateIQ explain further:
Those are elite numbers against southpaws, and all the red on the rest of the image explains the Rockies’ overall struggles. A super contrarian build here would be to roster Goodman and Abbott, and hope Abbott mows down the rest of the lineup while struggling against Goodman.
Bo Bichette 3B ($4,000) New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (Miles Mikolas)
Bo Bichette’s debut season with the Mets hasn’t exactly been what they hoped for when signing him to a three-year, $126 million deal in the offseason. Then again, nothing has gone according to plan for the Mets.
Still, he has a solid track record of better performance and is likely to return to form in the near future. A matchup with Miles Mikolas ($5,500) and his 8.49 ERA could be just what Bichette (and the Mets in general) need. I’ll take the buy-low spot on Bichette and his teammates as long as it’s there. He’s the highest-rated non-Reds hitter in our tournament model.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket invite code.
Pictured: Elly De La Cruz
Photo Credit: Imagn
