The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shohei Ohtani (R) $10,100 Los Angeles Dodgers (-215) at San Francisco Giants
For a couple of starts in there, we had strangely low prices on Shohei Ohtani the pitcher, but those days seem to be over. Now rightfully priced in the five figures, the reigning MVP takes the mount tonight in San Francisco, a pitcher-friendly park where he’ll also benefit from solid pitching weather that cuts runs about 6% on average.
Not that he needs the help. Through three starts, Ohtani has allowed just one run, giving him an ERA of 0.5. He’s had a bit of luck, but his ERA predictors are all in the low twos, and it’s encouraging that he’s averaging six innings per outing, something he’s never maintained over a full season in MLB.
The trade-off is he’s pitching to contact a bit more, with the lowest swinging-strike and strikeout rate of his MLB career outside of 2020, where he threw just 1.2 innings. Of course, his down year is most pitchers’ best years, as he’s still struck out a batter per inning this season.
If you needed any more convincing, the Giants so far this season have been a bottom-three offense against right-handed pitching, with a wRC+ of just 79. There’s likely some regression coming for Ohtani eventually, but it probably doesn’t happen tonight. He leads our models in median and ceiling projection, as well as K prediction.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Matthew Boyd (L) $7,700 Chicago Cubs (-174) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Another starter benefiting from some solid pitching weather is Matthew Boyd. The notoriously fickle Wrigley Winds are expected to be blowing in today, combined with game-time temperatures in the low 50s and dropping throughout the evening. That’s a nice boost for Boyd, who we’re getting at a discount as he returns from the 15-day IL.
He’s also taking on a massively disappointing Phillies team that ranks dead last in wRC+ against southpaws on the year. They have the talent to suggest that won’t continue forever, but with how reliant their lineup is on lefty power, they’ll likely have worse splits than against righties for most of the season.
Boyd has been better than his 6.75 ERA would indicate, as something was obviously off physically that forced him on the IL. Even so, his SIERA, FIP, and xFIP were all below 2.00 when he went down. Rostering a pitcher coming back from an injury is always risky, but the external factors (weather, Park Factor, matchup) make the risk easier to stomach.
With the Phillies implied for just 3.8 runs tonight, I’ll be trusting the market and rostering Boyd, who leads our Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Casey Mize (R) $7,900 Detroit Tigers (-135) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The market hasn’t quite caught up to the improvement we’ve seen from Casey Mize this year. His 3.62 xERA is about in line with his performance last season, but he’s upped his swinging-strike rate and strikeout rate to 12.3% and 26.6%, respectively, numbers that are effectively identical to Ohtani’s. It’s a somewhat difficult matchup with the Brewers, but at sub-$8,000, he’s worth some exposure.
Braxton Ashcraft (R) $8,200 Pittsburgh Pirates (-112) at Texas Rangers
Ashcraft is another starter I suspect we’ll be paying at least $9,000 for most of the season, as he carries a 2.38 ERA and 29.7% strikeout rate through four starts. Both of those marks are supported by his underlying numbers (and his arm talent), so we should see them more or less continue throughout the season. It’s not an ideal matchup, but I’m buying low while we still can.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The Padres and Rockies had an extremely rare 1-0 game at Coors Field last night, but that’s probably not going to happen again. The visiting Padres are implied for 6.8 runs, as they look to make up for the disappointing offensive output last night.
They’re facing Tomoyuki Sugano ($6,100), who has a 3.92 ERA this season. However, his xERA is north of seven, with other ERA indicators in the mid-fives. Considering he had a 4.64 ERA for Baltimore last year and now has home games at Coors Field, I’d call that 3.92 ERA pretty unsustainable.
You probably aren’t rostering this full stack and Ohtani at pitcher, but with the solid pitching options in the $8,000 range, it’s entirely possible to load up on Padres tonight. Hopefully we also get a slight ownership break after an awful Tuesday offensively – but I wouldn’t bank on it.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,500) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago White Sox (Anthony Kay)
It’s been a down year so far for the switch-hitting Ketel Marte, who is hitting just .218 on the season with a .664 OPS. However, that’s been due to his poor performance batting lefty (against right-handed pitching), as he’s continued to rake southpaws. Against lefties, he’s hitting .292. That’s in line with his career splits, where his average is about 40 points higher than when facing righties.
We can see this effect in his PlateIQ numbers dating back to last year:
Arizona has plenty of hitters on the stronger side of their platoon splits tonight, with the team wRC+ 24 points higher than against righties, making them a solid alternative stack to the Padres.
Edgar Quero C ($2,500) Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks (Eduardo Rodriguez)
Like the home team, the visiting White Sox also have much stronger numbers against left-handed pitching, which is a big reason why this game has a total over nine. Many of the White Sox bats have a fairly small sample size, though, making them a less confident stack than Arizona.
I’m willing to take the risk with Edgar Quero thanks to his price tag, which is too cheap for his #5 spot in the lineup. It’s not a huge deal if you don’t get much or anything from him at that price point, as it allows you to roster expensive pieces elsewhere. Plus, most DFS rosters don’t get a ton from catcher anyway, so you aren’t falling too far behind.
He leads all hitters on the slate in Pts/Sal projection.
Mickey Moniak OF ($3,900) Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres (Walker Buehler)
While they’re overshadowed by the visiting team – as they so often are – the Rockies’ 5.5-run implied total is second-best on the slate, as they have a winnable matchup against Walker Buehler ($7,500) at home. Buehler has a 4.58 ERA despite a career-low HR/FB rate, possibly explained by his move to pitcher-friendly Petco Park this season.
That might turn around at Coors, making the Rockies an interesting team to roster. Unfortunately, they don’t have many competent hitters. Except, perhaps, for Moniak, who has a .929 OPS through 17 games after posting above-average numbers last season as well. At his price point and #2 spot in the lineup, he’s an excellent value.
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Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
Photo Credit: Imagn
