The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud/Value Pick
Nolan McLean (R) $8,800 New York Mets (-162) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
With just three games on the evening slate, we can’t be too picky at pitcher, as none of the six starters on the slate are what we would consider typical studs. However, Nolan McLean has put up ace numbers through his very limited MLB experience, with a 2.16 ERA and underlying numbers around 3.00 through his ten career big league starts.
At a minimum, Vegas expects his elite run prevention to continue, with the opposing Diamondbacks implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs. Plus, McLean has hovered around a 30% strikeout rate since making his debut last season, with underlying numbers that largely support that.
The only real issue with rostering McLean today is ownership, as he’s expected to be in around 50% of the field’s lineups tonight. Of course, on a three-game slate, it’s hard to get unique at pitcher no matter who you roster, so it probably makes more sense to go for some under-the-radar hitters rather than fade the clear best arm on the board.
He leads the slate in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection and will be the starting point for all my lineups tonight.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Seth Lugo (R) $8,300 Kansas City Royals (-185) vs. Chicago White Sox
Lugo trails only McLean in Pts/Sal projection as he draws a favorable matchup with the White Sox. The young Chicago team is struggling offensively to begin the season, with a 29% strikeout rate while ranking 26th in wRC+. Lugo has been more lucky than good this season, with an ERA about three runs below his xERA, but this matchup is unlikely to force any negative regression on him. He’s projecting as even more popular than McLean, which is the other argument against him, but our options are fairly thin.
Randy Vasquez (R) $7,300 San Diego Padres (-197) vs. Colorado Rockies
With the Rockies home series at Coors Field now over, we have a good opportunity to go back to picking on them with opposing pitchers. The first one to get their shot is Vasquez, who has allowed just one run this season through 12 innings of work against better opponents (Detroit and Boston). While he’s obviously not going to maintain that pace all season, getting to face one of the league’s worst offenses in one of the best pitcher’s parks probably isn’t the time it turns around.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The Royals are far too cheap for their implied total tonight. That number sits at 5.6, the best on the slate by nearly a full run, yet their first five hitters cost just $21,800 in combined salary. Of course, salary isn’t much of an issue today with no pitcher over $9,000, but it’s still nice to have the flexibility.
They’re taking on the White Sox and starter Anthony Kay ($6,800), a journeyman lefty with a career ERA and xERA both in the mid-fives. This game also has the best hitting weather on the slate, with conditions that typically boost scoring by around 10% and home runs by more than 5%.
Their stack won’t be quite as cheap if Lane Thomas gets the day off (or slides further down the lineup), which is somewhat probable since he’s hitting just .105 on the season. If you’re unable to check lineups before lock, I’d consider just stacking the first four Royals, but we should be able to find the salary to make it work even without the savings on Thomas.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Munetaka Murakami 1B ($4,700) Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Seth Lugo)
I like the idea of rostering as many hitters as possible from this AL Central showdown for a few reasons. The first is the aforementioned weather factor. Not only is this game somewhat positive for hitters, but both of the other contests favor pitchers somewhat significantly. The other is that with Lugo projecting to be (too) popular, we’re getting a double dose of leverage if White Sox bats go off.
A fun starting point is Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami, who hit 22 home runs and slugged .663 in just 56 games in Japan last year. The MLB is a different animal, but he’s already gone yard thrice in 12 games stateside. He’s a boom-or-bust option thanks to a 33% strikeout rate, but we’re trying to chase big scores, not guys who hit a single or two.
Jackson Merrill OF ($4,500) San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies (Chase Dollander)
The Padres are the other team implied for a solid total tonight at 4.7 runs. They’re taking on the Rockies’ Chase Dollander ($6,000), who has improved upon his rookie year ERA of 6.52 by getting it down to 5.40 so far this season. His xERA is about a run lower, so some of it is due to playing at Coors Field, but not all.
He was also terrible against left-handed hitting last season, as you can see in Plate IQ:
With Merrill the only left-handed bat in the Padres’ first five hitters, he’s an obvious option as a one-off play. Of course, stacking the Padres in general makes plenty of sense as well.
Bo Bichette 3B ($4,000) New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Eduardo Rodriguez)
Bo Bichette is another player I’m targeting due to his platoon splits, as the Mets take on southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,800) at Citi Field tonight. While Bichette hit both lefties and righties for a similar average last season, his slugging percentage jumped almost 100 points against lefties, with that trend fairly consistent throughout his career.
Rodriguez has opened the season with 12 scoreless innings but had an ERA north of 5.00 last season, so regression is likely coming hard in the very near future. Let’s hope it comes today, and Bichette is the one to capitalize on it.
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Pictured: Bo Bichette
Photo Credit: Imagn
