The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryan Woo (R) $10,000 Seattle Mariners (-125) at Texas Rangers
With so many aces taking the mound yesterday, we have a pretty thin pitching slate at the top tonight. The highest-priced and best-projecting of the bunch is the Mariners’ Bryan Woo, who is a slight favorite in Texas tonight against the Rangers.
Seattle pitching has largely shut down the Rangers so far this series, with just four runs allowed through the first two games. Woo brings a 1.38 ERA on the season into Wednesday’s contest – with similar underlying numbers – giving him a good chance to continue that string of stellar pitching from Seattle’s rotation. The Rangers’ 3.6-run implied total is among the lowest on the afternoon slate.
With that said, I’m personally always hesitant to roster Mariners pitchers on the road. They’re priced for their average performance, which is heavily influenced by home games at the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball. Last season, Woo’s ERA was about a run higher on the road than at home.
That doesn’t make him a bad play tonight, as he’s likely to still perform well, but it does make him a bit overpriced for his likeliest outcome. He leads the slate in median and ceiling projection by a narrow margin but ranks middle of the pack in terms of Pts/Sal. With his projected ownership relatively high, I doubt I’ll be rostering much of him myself.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Grant Holmes (R) $6,700 Atlanta Braves (-135) at Los Angeles Angels
Cheap starting pitchers against the Angels remains one of the safer options on a daily basis. The Angels aren’t, and likely won’t be so long as Mike Trout ($5,100) remains healthy, a bottom-tier offense in terms of run production. However, they have a ridiculous 29.3% strikeout rate as a team, after “leading” the league in that category last season.
That’s a massive boost for a pitcher in Holmes’ price range. He finished last season with a 25% strikeout rate and has improved his swinging strike rate in 2026 but now has an 18.6% K rate. A matchup with the Angels likely helps some of that positive regression come to fruition, and we have him projected for 6.48 strikeouts.
With the Angels’ team total hovering around 4.0, he’s likely to give up a couple runs, but that would be more than balanced out if he can approach his K prediction. He’s far too cheap for his likeliest outcome, which is reflected by his 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection by a wide margin today.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Sonny Gray (R) $8,000 Boston Red Sox (-134) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Our projections have Sonny Gray right behind Bryan Woo in median and ceiling, with virtually identical market data for both pitchers. With Gray priced $2,000 below Woo and elite pitching weather in Boston, he’s pretty clearly the better play today. Gray doesn’t bring a ton of strikeout upside, but at $8,000 he doesn’t need to.
Shohei Ohtani (R) $9,700 Los Angeles Dodgers (-170) at Toronto Blue Jays
The Dodgers are being somewhat careful with Ohtani as a pitcher, as this is just his second start of the season and the team’s 12th game. However, they let him work six full innings in his debut, in which he struck out six hitters without allowing a run. He’s got a tougher matchup today against the Blue Jays, but at his best he’s unhittable, making him well worth some exposure at sub-5% ownership.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros close out their series at Coors Field today and are looking to salvage one win from what’s been a disappointing series. They managed just a single run in yesterday’s 5-1 loss but still got a price bump today due to fairly high ownership.
They do get a much better matchup with Michael Lorenzen ($5,500), the Rockies righty who has allowed 12 earned runs through 7.1 innings of work this season. One of those games was even on the road, so it’s hard to blame location or bad luck for his performance.
Plus, it’s easier to afford the Astros stack today with pitchers like Gray and Holmes projecting well, which makes them relatively more valuable. The Astros stack hasn’t worked out so far this week…but it might work for us today. Their 6.5-run implied total is more than a run higher than any other team.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Maikel Garcia 3B ($5,000) Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (Joey Cantillo)
The Royals in general caught my eye when I noticed the favorable weather in Cleveland this afternoon. While it’s still somewhat chilly, wind blowing out to left field equates to a 9% bump in scoring and more than a 23% boost to home runs, according to Weather Edge.
Next, I headed to PlateIQ to check out the stats on Royals hitters against left-handed pitching, and the best option immediately appeared:
That would be Garcia, who also leads off their lineup. He’s pricey, but everything is pointing to him on the afternoon slate.
Willson Contreras 1B ($4,000) Boston Red Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Shane Drohan)
Willson Contreras is always on my radar when Boston faces a southpaw, thanks to his elite numbers against lefties. Last season his OPS was about 100 points higher than when facing righties, which is right in line with his career numbers. Tonight he’s facing a lefty making his MLB debut in Shane Drohan ($6,900), which is a further boost to his projection.
I miss the days when Contreras was eligible at catcher, as that made him an easier fit into lineups. However, he’s still on the strong side of his platoon splits, in a solid park for right-handed power, and in a winnable matchup. That’s enough for me at $4,000.
Ivan Herrera C ($3,500) St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (Miles Mikolas)
I wrote up Herrera in this space yesterday, and he continues to be one of the strongest projecting catchers. It didn’t quite work out yesterday, though he did draw two walks, but I’m not ready to give up on him yet. Herrera leads the position in Pts/Sal and is top three in median and ceiling projection, making him a strong overall option at a bargain price.
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Pictured: Bryan Woo
Photo Credit: Imagn
