The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale (L) $9,700 Atlanta Braves (-172) at Los Angeles Angels
On Monday’s slate, there’s Chris Sale, and then there’s everyone else. Sale leads our median projections by more than five points over any other pitcher, our ceiling projections by almost ten, and has by far the best Vegas data on the board.
Coming into the season, it was reasonable to be cautious about the 2024 NL Cy Young winner. Sale has been one of baseball’s best pitchers for many years, but at 37, he should theoretically be on the downside of his career. At least through two starts in 2026, that hasn’t been the case. Sale has nine strikeouts through 12 combined innings, while allowing just 4 hits and a single run in those games.
Crucially for his outlook, those games came against much better lineups than the one he faces tonight. The Angels have picked up right where they left off last season with a 28.5% strikeout rate overall and an absurd 37.9% rate (albeit in a tiny sample size) against lefties.
The only real criticism of Sale’s performance so far has been his decreased K rate over years past. A matchup with the Angels can go a long way toward rectifying that, so look for him to pick up a few additional punchouts while continuing to limit runs, leading to a big DFS score. While he’ll be chalky, I’m happy starting all of my lineups with Sale and trying to find contrarian options elsewhere.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Cody Bolton (R) $4,000 Houston Astros (-187) at Colorado Rockies
One of the ways to balance out the price tag and ownership of Sale is to punt at the second pitching spot with the Astros’ Cody Bolton. Bolton trails only Sale in Pts/Sal projection, though that’s, of course, more a function of his stone-minimum salary than any massive projection for him.
The long reliever is getting the spot start on Monday, and it couldn’t come against a better opponent. The Rockies lead the league in strikeout rate and are dead last in wRC+ so far this season, which is right in line with how they finished 2025. Of course, this game being in Colorado is less than optimal, but it doesn’t matter how far the ball flies if you never put a bat to it.
From a strategy standpoint, if Bolton can give us 3 solid innings, the savings he offers allow space for a stud pitcher (Sale) and a high-priced stack – which is especially valuable today with Bolton’s Astros implied for 6.2 runs in Colorado. Taking these “punt” options at pitcher is also a bet on none of the other options to have big games, but with Sale as the only starter projected for over 18 points, that’s a reasonable stance tonight.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Logan Gilbert (R) $9,500 Seattle Mariners (-100) at Texas Rangers
Logan Gilbert trails only Sale in median and ceiling projection, as he leaves the friendly confines of Seattle to take on the Rangers. I’m personally not a fan of rostering Mariners starters on the road, since their home stadium is so pitcher-friendly. Last season, Gilbert’s ERA more than doubled on the road, for example. With that said, pivoting from the massively chalky Sale makes sense for large-field GPPs, and Gilbert is the logical next option based on projections.
Casey Mize (R) $7,700 Detroit Tigers (+105) at Minnesota Twins
Former #1 overall pick Casey Mize may finally be living up to his potential. Since missing the entirety of the 2023 season with an injury, Mize has posted a lower ERA and higher strikeout rate every season, including his hot start in 2026. He’s facing a more-or-less average Twins lineup today, but conditions are brutal for hitters with the game-time temperature about freezing, so I’ll be well over the field’s 10% projected ownership on Mize.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Houston Astros:
With their game being played in Colorado, it’s no surprise to see the Astros projecting as our top tournament stack. They’re implied for 6.2 runs tonight with no other team above five, making them a borderline must-play lineup.
Not only are they playing at Coors, but the Astros have been the best offense in baseball through the first two weeks of the season. Collectively, they have a league-high 153 wRC+ and are a top-five team in both home runs and steals.
While Rockies starter Ryan Feltner ($6,000) isn’t an especially beatable arm, he’s probably only going out for a few innings tonight as he’s dealing with a glute injury that limited him in his last outing. More innings against the Rockies bullpen are never a bad thing, which only raises my optimism around the Houston hitters.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Troy Johnston 1B/OF ($3,000) Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros (Cody Bolton)
Troy Johnston made his big-league debut late last season and ended the year as an above-average bat while playing home games in Miami. Obviously, a move to Colorado helps his prospects going forward, and he’s started the season hitting .280 for his new team.
From a strategy standpoint, he’s just $3,000 despite projecting to hit leadoff for a Rockies team implied for a solid 4.6-run total. With this game being effectively a bullpen day for Houston, you could even pair Johnston with starter Cody Bolton as a super-contrarian option. With Bolton probably only going through the order once, Johnston doing some damage in later innings could mean both pay off their cheap salaries.
Vladamir Guerrero 1B ($5,800) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Justin Wrobleski)
One of the overall themes tonight is the cold temperatures sweeping the U.S. The majority of the games have conditions much more favorable to pitchers than hitters, making it hard to find solid bats. Of course, the Blue Jays play inside, making weather a non-factor for their matchup with the Dodgers.
Dodgers lefty Justin Wrobleski ($5,800) is the weak point in their otherwise elite pitching rotation, and when the Dodgers are fully healthy, he’ll likely be relegated to a bullpen role. While his underlying numbers are much better than his ERA indicates, he’s still not a pitcher to shy away from. I went to PlateIQ to identify the best bats to roster against him tonight:
No surprise to see Vlad Jr. and George Springer ($5,200) leading the charge. Both are great options if you go cheap at pitcher or elsewhere in the lineup.
Taylor Ward OF ($4,300) Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox (TBD)
It looks like the White Sox will be using an opener followed by Erick Fedde ($6,300) tonight against Baltimore. While limiting Fedde’s innings makes sense, he’s had an ERA well over 5.00 since the start of last season, making this a very winnable matchup for the Orioles.
Taylor Ward is thus underpriced as the leadoff man for a lineup implied for just under 5 runs. Ward profiles as more of a middle-of-the-order hitter, with a .228 average but 36 home runs last season; nonetheless, we’ll take that upside at the top of a lineup as well. Plus, the wind in Chicago is blowing out, which helps to mitigate the downside of the cold temperatures.
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Pictured: Chris Sale
Photo Credit: Imagn
