NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Wednesday, March 25)

Wednesday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Luka Doncic has been one of the best players in basketball basically ever since he stepped on an NBA court, but he’s taken his game to another level recently. He’s carried a massive offensive burden for Los Angeles, and he’s responded with an average Plus/Minus of +7.06 over his past 10 games. That includes six games with more than 70 DraftKings points. Overall, he’s averaged 1.77 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 37.5 minutes Wednesday vs. the Pacers.

It’s a great spot for Doncic to keep the production rolling. The Pacers are tanking toward the finish line, and they’re 26th in defensive efficiency for the year. The Lakers are implied for 124.75 points, which is the top mark on the main slate.

That gives Doncic the highest ceiling on the slate by a pretty comfortable margin. Victor Wembanyama is the only player within 15 points of Doncic in our NBA Models, making him a clear target for tournaments.

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Value

Another reason to be bullish on Doncic is the plethora of value options available. Utah looks like a particularly useful team to target. They’ve already ruled out seven players, while Kyle Filipowski is doubtful and Cody Williams is questionable.

Both of their top point guard options will be unavailable, opening up plenty of playing time for Kennedy Chandler. Chandler has now appeared in two games for the Jazz, and he’s delivered excellent value in both. He had 38.25 DraftKings points across 29.4 minutes in his last outing, and he had 33.75 DraftKings points in 37.2 minutes in his first.

Chandler is projected for another 30 minutes on Wednesday, and he stands out as one of the best values of the day. He leads all players in projected Plus/Minus, while he’s popping in the SimLabs optimal lineup nearly 73% of the time.

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Fast Break

Bub Carrington has turned in some useful performances of late for the Wizards, and he draws one of the best possible matchups Wednesday vs. the Jazz. Utah ranks second in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency for the year, and this game has a total of 239.5 points. Like the Jazz, the Wizards will also be shorthanded for this matchup, with seven players ruled out and Bilal Coulibaly and Tristan Vukcevic both listed as questionable.

With Cade Cunningham out of the lineup, Daniss Jenkins has served as one of the Pistons’ top offensive options. He’s scored at least 43.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute with Cunningham off the floor this season. He’s up to $6,300 on DraftKings, but that still represents a tremendous value: his price tag comes with a 99% Bargain Rating.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

VJ Edgecombe got off to a flying start as a rookie, but he cooled off a bit as the year progressed. However, he’s been forced into a larger role with the team’s current injury situation. The team will get a bit healthier on Wednesday, with Paul George set to return following a 25-game suspension, but Tyrese Maxey is out and Joel Embiid is questionable.

That should still leave plenty of opportunities for Edgecombe to spread his wings. He’s seen a +4.45% usage bump with Maxey and Jared McCain off the floor this season, resulting in an average of just over a fantasy point per minute. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five outings, including three straight with at least 47.25 DraftKings points.

Edgecombe is another player who seems priced at a discount on DraftKings. His $8,300 salary comes with a 92% Bargain Rating, and he has a comparable ceiling projection to Donovan Mitchell and Jaylen Brown. 

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Value

The Spurs are going to be without De’Aaron Fox on Wednesday, which will open up some additional playing time for talented rookie Dylan Harper. The Spurs haven’t needed a ton of production from the No. 2 overall pick as a rookie, but he’s been extremely impressive when on the floor. He’s averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models.

Harper also enters this contest in good recent form. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.02 across his past 10 outings, and he’s had at least 34.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Add in a matchup vs. the lowly Grizzlies, and it’s a great spot for Harper to continue to feast. He leads all shooting guards in projected Plus/Minus.

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Fast Break

Stephon Castle also has some appeal for the Spurs. He’s been awesome of late, averaging 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen a team-high +2.65% usage bump with Fox off the floor this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six outings, despite playing less than 30 minutes in three of them.

Elijah Harkless is another potential option for the shorthanded Jazz. He hasn’t been quite as impressive as Chandler on a per-minute basis, but he’s still averaged a respectable 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and he trails only Harper in projected Plus/Minus and optimal lineup rate at shooting guard.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

It’s pretty hard to see how a team with Harper and Ace Bailey wasn’t absolutely dominant in college last year. Rutgers must have surrounded that duo with guys from a local rec league, because both of them are awesome.

Bailey has gotten the opportunity to show what he can do for the shorthanded Jazz recently, and he hasn’t disappointed. He’s scored at least 50.75 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s knocked down seven 3-pointers in two of them. Overall, he’s up to 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Bailey’s price tag continues to rise, but he still stands out as a nice value at $7,300. He has the fourth-best projected Plus/Minus at small forward, and he’s first in optimal lineup rate by a wide margin. He’s popping in Sim Labs in more than 64% of the simulations, while his ownership projection is closer to 54%.

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Value

Sticking with the Jazz, John Konchar is another potential source of value. He doesn’t provide nearly the same ceiling as Bailey, but he has the chance to be the better per-dollar option. He’s projected for 26 minutes and just $4,000, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.01 (per the Trends tool). Konchar has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.1 in that split as a member of the Jazz, and his projections on Wednesday’s slate look very similar.

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Fast Break

If Coulibaly can suit up for the Wizards, he is worth some consideration at $5,800. He’s seen a big uptick in responsibilities of late, and he’s responded with an average Plus/Minus of +5.51 over his past 10 games. He’s capable of contributing a bit in every category across the board, and he’s had at least 21 points in three of his past five outings.

Keldon Johnson has been a solid reserve option for the Spurs this season, and he should see a slight boost with Fox out of the lineup. He’s projected for 24 minutes on Wednesday’s slate, and he’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute over the past month. His $4,100 salary comes with a 96% Bargain Rating, and he trails only Konchar in projected Plus/Minus at small forward.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Cavaliers are on the second leg of a back-to-back on Wednesday, so we’re still waiting on their official injury report. That said, it’s likely that Jarrett Allen remains out of the lineup. The most recent reports are that he’s nearing a return, but that’s likely still a few games away.

With Allen sidelined, Evan Mobley has seen a big boost to his fantasy value. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games, including two with at least 51.5 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among Wednesday’s power forwards.

Mobley is also in a favorable spot vs. the Heat. Miami is still a solid defensive team, but they’ve played at the fastest pace in basketball this season. The Cavaliers are implied for 123 points in this contest, so they have plenty of offensive upside.

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Value

GG Jackson has played more for the tanking Grizzlies down the stretch. He’s logged at least 25.9 minutes in three of his past four outings, and he’s responded with a positive Plus/Minus in each. That includes more than 30 minutes in his most recent contest.

Jackson has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage with that much playing time. He remains affordable at $5,100, and only Konchar has a better projected Plus/Minus at power forward.

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Fast Break

With the Wizards shorthanded of late, Anthony Gill has turned in some useful performances. He had 29.75 DraftKings points across 26.5 minutes in his last outing, and he should see a comparable workload vs. the Jazz. Utah is extremely exploitable on the interior, and Gill is dirt cheap at just $3,500.

What started as a promising season for the Bulls has spiraled into another massively disappointing campaign. However, Matas Buzelis continues to show some signs. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.05 over his past 10 games. He’s failed to return value in his past three outings, but those were against three good teams. Perhaps his fortune will turn around in a matchup vs. the 76ers on Wednesday, with that contest ranking second on the slate with a 240.5-point total.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

On a slate with plenty of value, paying up for Wembanyama is certainly a viable option. He’s available at a slight discount compared to Doncic, but Wemby is the most dominant per-minute force on the slate. He’s averaged 1.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s capable of dominating a game on both ends of the floor.

Wembanyama could also be asked to do a bit more than usual on offense with Fox out of the lineup. He’s seen a usage bump of around 1% with Fox off the floor this season, giving him more upside than usual vs. the Grizzlies’ 23rd-ranked defense.

Wembanyama is also priced extremely favorably on DraftKings, with his $11,300 salary resulting in a 99% Bargain Rating. His optimal lineup rate is just under 48%, which is the fourth-best mark on the entire slate.

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Value

While Wemby is great, Oscar Tshiebwe stands out as the clear top value at the center position. He owns the top projected Plus/Minus at the position by a wide margin, and only Chandler is better on the entire slate. He’s currently projected for 25 minutes for the shorthanded Jazz, and he’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Tshiebwe is coming off his best game in his last outing. He logged 28.4 minutes and responded with 33.25 DraftKings points. At just $3,700, he has the potential to deliver massive upside against a soft Wizards’ interior that has surrendered plenty of huge games to opposing big men.

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Fast Break

Bam Adebayo is an interesting pivot off Wemby for tournaments. He’s projected for roughly 10% less ownership, but he’s put together some dominant performances of late. His 83-point effort vs. the Wizards got plenty of attention, but he also had more than 70 DraftKings points vs. the Rockets two games ago. The game between the Heat and Cavaliers has the top total of the day (243.0), and Adebayo has the third-highest optimal lineup rate at the position.

Nick Richards has delivered consistent value for the Bulls recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his past 12 games, and he boasts an average Plus/Minus of +4.25 over his past 10. He hasn’t displayed much of a ceiling during that time frame, but he’s a good bet to return value once again vs. the 76ers.

Pictured: Luka Doncic
Photo Credit: Imagn