The PGA TOUR remains in Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge (par 72, 7,466 yards, Bermuda greens) in Orlando. This track has been the site of the Arnold Palmer Invitational since 1979, and Russell Henley (-11) is the defending champion after winning by one stroke last year. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of the PGA TOUR’s eight Signature Events this season. This 72-man field will compete for a $20 million purse, and following the first two rounds, there will be a cut, with the top 50 and ties and any player who is within 10 shots of the lead advancing.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The Cliffs Notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
DraftKings $10,000 Range
Rory McIlroy ($11,600)
While Scottie Scheffler has won twice at Bay Hill, he is coming off a T12 at the Genesis Invitational, in which he failed to gain strokes on approach for the first time since August of 2024. This doesn’t mean Scheffler won’t contend this week, but taking the $2,500 savings with McIlroy, who also has a stellar record at Bay Hill, feels like the right move for cash games this week. McIlroy has finished inside the top 10 in six of his 11 starts at the par 72, including a win in 2018, a T5 in 2020, and a runner-up in 2023. McIlroy has three rounds of 65 or lower at Bay Hill, and among the players in this field, he ranks second only to Scheffler in Strokes Gained per round at this course. McIlroy just finished runner-up at the Genesis Invitational by one shot in his last start, which is his fifth top-three finish in his last 10 starts worldwide.
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Collin Morikawa ($9,600)
Morikawa has finished inside the top 10 twice at Bay Hill, including a runner-up finish last season, and the two-time major champion is playing his best golf in quite some time. Morikawa just won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last month, and then he finished T7th at the Genesis Invitational the next week, both of which are Signature Events. Morikawa ranks sixth in SG: Approach this season, he gained strokes with his putter his last time out, which is the first time he has done so in nine starts. If Morikawa can continue to roll the ball well with his flat stick to combine with his incredible iron play, he absolutely will be in the mix for a win this weekend.
Cameron Young ($9,100)
Young has two top-13 finishes in four starts at Bay Hill, and he is fresh off a T7 at the Genesis Invitational. At Riviera CC that week, Young shot a 5-under 65 in each of his final two rounds, and he finished fifth among the world-class field in SG: Approach. Looking to carry this momentum over to Bay Hill, Young is a great target. In his last 10 starts, Young has produced six top-12 finishes.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Jake Knapp ($8,600)
Knapp has been incredible this season, finishing no worse than T11 in all five of his starts. Knapp has shot under par in all but one of these 20 rounds, and he ranks third in Total Strokes Gained on the PGA TOUR. Additionally, Knapp leads the entire circuit in par-5 performance, which bodes well for a par 72 like Bay Hill, where three of the last five winners have finished the event in the top three in par-5 scoring. Knapp finished T57 in his one start at Bay Hill two years ago, but he is a totally different class of player now and is a tough fade at only $8,600.
Shane Lowry ($8,100)
While Lowry choked away the Cognizant Classic last week, he’s difficult to overlook at this affordable salary. Following his runner-up finish last week, Lowry has finished inside the top 12 in six of his last eight starts worldwide. This season, Lowry ranks seventh in Total Strokes Gained, and he ranks 10th in proximity on approach shots from 200+ yards, setting him up well for the lengthy Bay Hill, where 24.6% of approach shots over the last five years have come from 200+ yards. At this venue the last two years, Lowry has thrived, finishing third and seventh.
Updated on 3/3/26
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Pierceson Coody ($7,600)
Coody finished T14 in his lone start at Bay Hill back in 2023. Now, he returns to the par 72 a whopping 190 spots higher in the world golf rankings at No. 47, as Coody has been outstanding. The Texas product has made 14 cuts in a row, and he has finished T18th or better in five of his six starts in 2026. Last month, Coody finished runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open and T10th at the WM Phoenix Open. For the season, Coody ranks 15th in Total Strokes Gained and second in par-5 performance.
Jordan Spieth ($7,400)
Spieth has only missed one cut in his last 10 starts with five top-30 finishes. Most recently, Spieth finished T12 at the Genesis Invitational. At Riviera CC, he gained strokes on approach and with his putter, and he closed the tournament with a 5-under 66. Spieth now travels to Bay Hill, where he has been terrific, finishing T4, T4, and T30. Spieth ranks third among this field in Strokes Gained per round at Bay Hill, and he is one of the best values available this week at only $7,400, which is the cheapest he has been priced on DraftKings for an Arnold Palmer Invitational by $1,200.
Sam Stevens ($7,000)
After finishing T40 in his first attempt at Bay Hill last season, Stevens returns to the Florida venue 33 spots higher in the world golf rankings. The 29-year-old is riding a seven-made-cut streak, including three top-20 finishes, one of which was a T16 at the Genesis Invitational his last time out. Stevens closed this event with a 6-under 65, and he has gained strokes on approach at all seven tournaments during this streak.
DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Corey Conners ($6,900)
While Conners hasn’t had any high finishes lately, this salary is criminally low for the two-time PGA TOUR winner at Bay Hill. In fact, this is the cheapest Conners has been on DraftKings since 2021. The Canadian has finished T21 or better in five straight starts at Bay Hill, including third-place finishes in 2021 and last season. Conners ranks seventh among this field in Strokes Gained per round, and he has only missed two cuts in his last 11 starts worldwide.
Sahith Theegala ($6,800)
Theegala has finished T14, T6, and MC in his last three starts at Bay Hill, and the former top-12 ranked player is in strong form. Theegala has only missed one cut in his last 11 starts, and he has carded a top-25 finish in four of his last five starts. Theegala ranks third in par-5 performance this season, and he is an appealing punt play at this cheap salary.
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Pictured: Rory McIlroy
Photo credit: Imagn
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