The NBA regular season resumes on Thursday after a week off for the All-Star Break, and DraftKings has the first seven games of the night on the main slate, which tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. None of these teams has played in a week, so we start the day with all 14 injury reports and should get fairly regular rotations, aside from the fact that many of these teams are starting a back-to-back set of games, with nine more NBA contests on tap for Friday. As the availability of players is finalized throughout the day, the models will change and adjust, so be sure to check back before tip-off.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
In the FantasyLabs projections, Tyrese Maxey has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all point guards. The home game for Maxey and the Sixers against the Hawks has the highest point total on the board, according to our Vegas Dashboard, and it should be a great spot for Maxey to continue to shine.
Joel Embiid is out for this matchup with Atlanta due to right knee and shin injuries, missing his third straight game. Without Embiid, just before the break, Maxey had 30 points against the Trail Blazers and 32 points against the Knicks, earning 38.2 and 40.5 DraftKings points.
Maxey is producing 1.31 DraftKings points per minute on the season, but without Embiid on the floor, his usage jumps from 29.4% to 31.9%, and his production ticks up to 1.35 DraftKings points per minute. Without Paul George (suspension) as well, his usage jumps to 32.2%, and he produces 1.37 DraftKings points per minute. Since both Embiid and PG have been out so many games, Maxey has played 15 games without them and is averaging 44.2 DraftKings points per game in those contests.
The Hawks have been a favorable matchup this season because they play so fast. They have the third-highest pace in the NBA, meaning more possessions and opportunities for Maxey to put together a monster game on Thursday night.
Value
The only point guard with a higher Projected Plus/Minus than Maxey is Pacers point guard Andrew Nembhard, who isn’t a bargain at his salary over $7,000, but he should be a great value in a smash spot against the Wizards.
The Wizards have allowed the most fantasy points per game this season to opposing point guards, and Nembhard will have a heavy workload with Pascal Siakam (personal) unavailable and Ivica Zubac (ankle) still not ready for his Pacers’ debut.
Nembhard had 24 points and 46 DraftKings points to lead the Pacers past the Knicks just before the break and had at least 39 DraftKings points in five of his last eight games before the break. During those eight games, he averaged 38.8 DraftKings points per game, and Siakam was available for all those contests. Without Siakam, Nembhard brings an even higher ceiling to this great matchup, and he could have a huge game since he brings elite upside, even though his salary is nowhere close to the other elite guards available.
Fast Break
In one of the spotlight games, Cade Cunningham had 56.25 and 59.75 DraftKings points in his last two games before the All-Star break and earned 50+ DraftKings points in five of his last seven. He’s the most expensive point guard play on the board, but he brings elite upside if you have the salary to spend up on him.
Under $5,000, Nolan Traore went into the break with some great momentum for the Nets. He had over 35 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, including five straight. The Nets will have their full backcourt available, so his role is a little uncertain, but the 19-year-old rookie has definitely shown enough upside to deserve more opportunities for the rest of the season in Brooklyn.
Another bargain rookie worth a look is Spurs’ guard Dylan Harper, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games, including each of his last five as well. Harper and the Spurs are home against the Suns in the final game of the main slate, and Harper will look to pick up where he left off before the break. He scored at least nine points in seven straight games and has over 26 DraftKings points in six of his last seven, making him a good option with upside under $5,000.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Against the Nets, Donovan Mitchell brings the top ceiling, median, and floor projections at shooting guard on Thursday’s slate. He helped the Cavs surge into the break despite some injury issues, and he and James Harden seem to be able to co-exist very well in the Cavs’ backcourt.
In the four games since Harden joined the team, Mitchell has averaged 52.5 DraftKings points, going over salary-based expectations in three straight games before playing fewer minutes in a blowout win over the Wizards.
This matchup against the Nets also has blowout potential, but Spida should be able to get his production as the Cavs look to push the lead early. Evan Mobley will be back for this game as well, so it will give the Cavs their first look at Mobley with the team’s newly upgraded backcourt.
Even though he’ll have to share the workload, Mitchell brings a top ceiling, so he’s worth paying up for if you have the salary available.
Value
When breaking down a slate, it’s helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. In the ShotQuality projections, VJ Edgecombe has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard, since he’ll be a huge part of the Sixers’ offense without Embiid and George.
The No. 3 overall pick has had a very strong rookie season so far for the Sixers, producing 14.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists for 32.0 DraftKings points per game. His defense and energy keep him on the floor for big minutes in most contests, which raises both his floor and his ceiling.
In games without both George and Embiid, Edgecombe is producing 31.4 DraftKings points per contest with the second-most minutes and the second-highest usage on the team behind only Maxey in those matchups.
With that much usage in a pace-up spot against Atlanta, Edgecombe should be an elite value play.
Fast Break
In one of the most interesting matchups on the board, the Hornets host the Houston Rockets. Kevin Durant has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position, with Kon Knueppel bringing the third-highest ceiling projection at the position in the ShotQuality projections. KD is definitely the safer play, but Knueppel is a very intriguing GPP option with such a high ceiling.
Along with Maey and Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes should bring good value from the Philly backcourt. He has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position in both sets of projections and should be able to deliver at his low salary if he can find his way to playing time coming out of the break.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
In both sets of projections, Jarace Walker has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate, and he has a top-four median, ceiling, and floor projection at small forward, even though his salary is very affordable under $6,000.
Walker is expected to be one of the main replacements for Siakam on Thursday, and he should pick up plenty of work in a very good matchup against the Wizards. The Pacers could additionally be without Aaron Nesmith (back, questionable), which would open up even more playing time for Walker.
The third-year forward out of Houston was actually officially drafted by the Wizards and sent to the Pacers as part of a complex three-team trade that moved Bradley Beal from Washington to Phoenix, with the Pacers facilitating the deal. Walker is having his best season in the NBA this year, averaging 10.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 24.0 minutes per game, all of which would be new career highs.
Walker has played four games without Siakam this season, averaging 28 DraftKings points in 30.4 minutes per game. He only had Nembhard on the floor for one of those games, though, and in that contest he took 14 shots, the second-highest total on the team behind only Nembhard.
If he gets that kind of expanded workload on Thursday against the Wizards, look for Walker to post a big game. He went into the break with some momentum, totaling 30+ DraftKings points in seven of his last 10 games, including three of his last four. All of those games were with Siakam as well, so the young forward has an even higher ceiling Thursday night.
Value
Quenton Jackson has the highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard in both sets of projections and the second-highest behind only Walker at small forward. Jackson is even cheaper than Walker, checking in with a salary of only $4,100 that makes him easy to fit in almost any roster build.
Jackson is on a two-way contract and is officially listed as questionable, so be sure he’s available before locking him in. If he does play, though, he’ll be set up for big minutes and bring a high ceiling as a result.
Before the break, he had 36.75 and 36.5 DraftKings points in games against the Jazz and Knicks, and then went into the break with nine points in 19 minutes for 18 DraftKings points against the Nets. Jackson has proven he can produce when he gets the minutes, so check the Pacers’ final injury report to see what he’s set up for this Thursday. He has the potential to be one of the top value plays on the board if he gets a big enough workload.
Fast Break
Nets forward Michael Porter Jr. has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position as his Nets host the up-tempo Cavs. MPJ has the potential for a huge game in almost any matchup. He had 67.5 DraftKings points in his return to Denver at the end of January, but he missed the last two games before the break with a knee issue. The good news is that he’s not on the injury report and should be ready to go for this contest, even if he does operate on a little bit of a minutes limit.
In the FantasyLabs projections, RJ Barrett has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward, behind only the two Indiana options. Barrett and the Raptors will face the new-look Bulls, who will get Josh Giddey back in the mix with all their trade deadline additions. They were a great matchup to attack before the break, and Barrett brings good upside now that he should be fully over the ankle sprain that cost him time in January.
The best bargain values on the board aside from Jackson are Will Riley and Jamir Watkins of the Wizards, who we’ll cover in the power forward values below.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Whenever the Hawks are on the schedule, Jalen Johnson is a strong pay-up option to consider building around if you have the salary available. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at power forward in both sets of projections and should continue to play a huge role for the Hawks, who have reoriented their franchise to be built around the budding superstar.
In the midst of a breakout season, Johnson is averaging 51.6 DraftKings points on 23.3 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 8.2 assists over his 50 games this season. He has become a triple-double threat on a nightly basis and can stuff the stat sheet in almost every category when he’s at his best.
He went into the break on a hot streak as well, exceeding salary-based expectations in five straight games with over 59 DraftKings points in each contest. He had two games during that stretch with over 70 DraftKings points, produced with a 20+ point triple-double.
Johnson has a heavy workload and has been a reliable producer this season, so if you save in other spots, he’s a strong spend-up option.
Value
At the trade deadline, the Wizards brought in Trae Young from Johnson’s Hawks and also added Anthony Davis. With neither veteran option available, though, they will still get a good look at some of their young players down the stretch. Without Young, Davis, and Alexandre Sarr (hamstring) for the next few weeks, the Wizards’ young forwards should get plenty of usage and playing time. Both Jamir Watkins and Will Riley are strong bargain plays on Thursday, bringing Plus/Minus projections near the top of both the small forward and power forward positions.
Watkins is a little cheaper and has been stepping up more lately. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight games, including a high point of 30.2 DraftKings points on 12 points and seven rebounds in 33 minutes against the Heat. The 24-year-old rookie from Florida State was a second-round pick but is showing he has solid upside as a bargain play.
Riley is a little more expensive and hit a bad shooting slump, going 5-for-22 in his last two games before the break. He did show upside before those two down games, though, with 40+ DraftKings points in two games earlier this month against the Pistons and Nets.
Both rookies are worth watching over the coming weeks and are solid value options at forward this Thursday in a juicy matchup against Indiana.
Fast Break
Scottie Barnes brings an extremely high ceiling as the Raptors visit the Bulls, and he has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position, behind only Johnson. He can be a little boom-or-bust since the Raptors have multiple ways to work their offense, but he brings a high enough ceiling to consider in this smash spot.
Amid the roster turnover all around him, Matas Buzelis continues to be a solid fantasy contributor. He has scored 15+ points in five straight, with over 32 DraftKings points in each of those contests. He’s one of the few carryovers for the Bulls and should be a piece they build around moving forward. You can build around him at his $6,500 salary as well.
Behind Jarace Walker, Micah Potter has some bargain potential off the Pacers bench. He had 43.5 DraftKings points in his last game before the break, showing his high ceiling if he’s able to play through his questionable tag due to an ankle sprain.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Spurs center Victor Wembanyama has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the entire slate, behind only Tyrese Maxey in the FantasyLabs projections. He actually ranks ahead of Maxey’s floor projection in the ShotQuality projections, making him an even better option. His Spurs will be at home on Thursday as they welcome the Suns.
Wemby and the Spurs went into the break playing very well. He exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six contests and posted at least 49 DraftKings points in four of his last six. He’s back to a more full minutes load after returning from injury and has shown he can put up fantasy points ridiculously quickly when he’s aggressive and on his game.
Against the Lakers just before the break, he played only 26 minutes and went off for 65.5 DraftKings points on 40 points and 12 boards. He has the ability to break the slate like that in any matchup, and he should be fired up to get back to work after the All-Star game. If you have the salary at center, he’s a great place to pay up for a high ceiling and floor.
Value
Behind only Jarace Walker, Day’Ron Sharpe has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate in both sets of projections. He’s expected to pick up more work for the Nets with Nic Claxton (ankle) out after rolling his ankle in practice.
Sharpe went into the break with a monster game, posting 19 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, two blocks, and two steals for 50.5 DraftKings points in 31 minutes against the Nets. He has three games with over 37 DraftKings points in his last five games, and he can stuff the stat sheet in good matchups.
He’s in a tougher matchup against former-Net Jarrett Allen and the returning Evan Mobley, but with a salary under $6,000, he still offers a ton of upside in his expanded playing time.
Fast Break
The Pistons won’t have Jalen Duren or Isaiah Stewart for their matchup with the Knicks since both will be serving their suspension for fighting with the Hornets before the break. Paul Reed ($5,700) started and had 46.2 DraftKings points on 22 points, five rebounds, three assists, four blocks, and three steals in 33 minutes while filling in against the Raptors before the break, and he’ll look to continue that momentum on Thursday against the Knicks.
Reed’s former team, the 76ers, will be without Embiid, leaving Andre Drummond and Adem Bona good value options against the Hawks. Dominick Barlow has also been playing well and brings added power forward eligibility.
Tristan Vukcevic will likely get more work for the Wizards while Sarr is out, since he’s really the only true center left on the roster. He has scored double-digit points in four straight games and should be able to return value at just over $4,000, especially in a favorable matchup against the Pacers.
Pictured: Tyrese Maxey
Photo credit: Imagn
