And then there were two. We’re down to the final four teams in the NFL playoffs, and the matchup for Super Bowl LIX will be officially set after Sunday’s two matchups. In the nightcap, the Seattle Seahawks will host the Los Angeles Rams in the third contest between the division rivals this season. The Seahawks are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 45.5 points.
The Seahawks managed to win the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the NFC this season largely due to their win over the Rams in Week 16. That said, that game was far from a masterclass. The Seahawks had a lot of things break in their favor in that contest, including a punt-return touchdown, one of the weirdest two-point conversions you’ll ever see, and a missed 48-yard field goal from the Rams with roughly two minutes left in the game. However, Seattle has looked pretty dominant since, including two beatdowns of the 49ers in Week 18 and the Divisional Round.
The Rams took care of business in their first matchup vs. the Seahawks, though that game was played in Los Angeles. They’ve been considered the better team for most of the year, but they enter this contest off two shaky playoff performances. They needed a late score to get past the Panthers in their first playoff outing, and they struggled to put away the Bears in Chicago. This will also be their third consecutive road game and their fifth in the past six weeks. That’s a lot of travel, so the Rams will be at a clear disadvantage in this contest.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for the NFC Championship.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This game is headlined by two of the very best receivers in the league, Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. They were the top two players at the position in terms of PPR points per game during the regular season, with Nacua averaging 23.4 and Smith-Njigba at 21.2.
Nacua is the more expensive of the two options in this showdown, and that makes sense. His offense was a lot more fantasy-friendly than the Seahawks passing attack for most of the season. Seattle had the lowest pass rate in the league this season, and they were 30th in Pass Rate Over Expectation. Meanwhile, the Rams were third in Pass Rate Over Expectation and led the league in passing yards per game. It gave Nacua more opportunities to make plays on a weekly basis.
Nacua’s playoff performances have been a bit of a mixed bag. He was absolutely dominant in his first playoff outing, racking up 18 targets, 10 receptions, 111 yards, and one score vs. the Panthers. However, he was much less effective the following week vs. the Bears, finishing with just 10 targets, five catches, and 56 scoreless yards.
Nacua will have his hands full this week vs. the Seahawks. They’ve been arguably the best defensive team in football this season, ranking first in defensive EPA. They’re No. 8 against the pass, and they allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. It results in a -4.6 Opponent Plus/Minus for Nacua, which is one of the worst marks on the slate.
Nacua did have a massive performance the last time these teams met, finishing with a season-high 49.5 DraftKings. However, that game came with Davante Adams on the sidelines. Nacua shouldn’t need to do quite as much in this matchup, though he’s clearly still capable of finding success.
Smith-Njigba didn’t need to do much last week, as the Seahawks attempted just 17 passes in their first playoff outing, but he has been one of the biggest alphas at the position all season. He’s posted a 35% target share and 49% air-yards share, both of which are among the best marks in the league. Smith-Njigba was also extremely efficient with all that volume, with his 11.0 yards per target ranking first among receivers with at least 85 targets this season.
For fantasy purposes, Smith-Njigba was one of the most reliable options all year. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in 13 of 17 regular-season contests, and he still managed at least 13.0 DraftKings points in three of the four exceptions. He had just one true clunker all year, and that came against the Vikings in a shutout victory.
The Rams’ defense is also imposing, but JSN racked up exactly 23.6 DraftKings points in both previous matchups vs. the Rams this season. He finished with nine catches and 105 receiving yards in their first matchup, and he had eight catches for 96 yards and a score in the second.
Despite being priced slightly cheaper, Smith-Njigba gets the edge in our projections. He has a superior median and ceiling projection, giving him a sizable edge in projected Plus/Minus. He’s also showing up as the Sim Labs optimal Captain at a slightly higher frequency, making him the clear top choice between the two.
After the receivers, Matthew Stafford stands out as the next best fantasy option. He turned in one of the best seasons of his career at 37 years old, leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns. He was rewarded with a first-team All-Pro selection, and he’s the betting favorite to take home his first MVP.
For fantasy purposes, Stafford ranked tied for second at quarterback in terms of fantasy points per game. That’s extremely impressive for someone who provided almost nothing with his legs. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 13 of 19 games so far this season, including 33.88 DraftKings points in Seattle in Week 15.
Still, the Seahawks limited Stafford to 13.2 DraftKings points in their first meeting, and they were brutal on quarterbacks all season. Stafford has a -7.2 Opponent Plus/Minus in this contest, which is the worst mark on the slate.
If you are going to play Stafford, pairing him with Nacua is extremely logical. The two players have a correlation of +0.72, which is an elite figure even for a QB-WR1 pairing. If one goes off, there’s a good chance he’s bringing the other along with him on the ride.
Kyren Williams rounds out this price range, and he’s the least exciting option of the group. The Seahawks have been dominant against the run this season, and Williams is part of a committee backfield in Los Angeles. He’s been the team’s top option, but he’s handled just 60% of the team’s designed rushing attempts this season. That figure has dipped to 54% since Week 14, which is far from what you’d expect for a typical stud running back.
However, Williams did see a pretty significant uptick last week vs. the Bears. He handled 70% of the team’s designed rushing attempts, and he also racked up a 13% target share. It’s possible that as the games are becoming more important, Williams will be the guy in the backfield a bit more frequently for Los Angeles.
Still, that’s just a one-week sample size, and even if it holds true, there’s no guarantee it leads to any success vs. the Seahawks. He has the worst projected Plus/Minus in the stud tier, and there are a handful of midrange options with superior raw projections.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The top of the midrange section feels very strong on this slate. There are three “almost studs” that lead the way, starting with Kenneth Walker III.
Like the Rams, the Seahawks have utilized a committee at running back for most of the season. Kenneth Walker split the work with Zach Charbonnet nearly down the middle, with Walker getting a slight edge in rushing attempts and Charbonnet seeing more work on passing downs.
However, Charbonnet went down with a season-ending injury last week, which opens the door for Walker to step into a bell-cow role. He’s capable of doing some serious damage with more volume. We saw that last week, turning 19 carries into 116 rushing yards and three scores vs. the 49ers.
Walker also caught all three of his targets in that contest, and he averaged 4.7 yards per attempt for the year. He also exceeded 20 DraftKings points in both of his previous outings vs. the Rams this season, despite splitting the work with Charbonnet in both. Now with the backfield largely to himself, he could be poised for a big showing.
Sam Darnold enters this game with arguably more pressure than any other player. Unlike Stafford, who already has a Super Bowl ring, Darnold is still looking to prove that he can handle the bright lights on the biggest stage. He disappointed in his two biggest games of the season last year with the Vikings, which is a big reason why the team chose to move on from him this offseason.
Darnold picked up his first playoff win last week, but he didn’t need to do very much. However, he was still efficient with his limited volume, averaging 8.47 adjusted yards per attempt. Darnold will undoubtedly need to do more this week vs. the Rams, so it’s a chance for him to change the narrative. His performance in his first two matchups vs. Los Angeles wasn’t great, finishing with 21.5 and 8.26 DraftKings points.
Darnold has scored single-digit fantasy points in three straight games, which has caused his salary to dip to $9,400 on DraftKings. Even though he hasn’t been a particularly strong fantasy producer for most of the year, he still has some buy-low appeal at that figure. He’s showing up as undervalued in Sim Labs, with his optimal lineup rate exceeding his projected ownership at Captain and in the Flex spots. He also ranks fourth on the slate in projected Plus/Minus, trailing only Walker and the two stud receivers.
Adams also has stud-like upside. He might not be the same player that he was in his prime, and he’s been the Rams’ clear No. 2 receiver behind Nacua for most of the year. However, Adams has also been one of the premier touchdown scorers at the position. He had 14 touchdowns in 14 regular-season games, including one in his lone matchup vs. the Seahawks.
Unfortunately, that was his lone catch in that outing. He failed to haul in each of his other seven targets, finishing with just 7.1 DraftKings points.
Adams has struggled since returning from a late-season injury in the playoffs. He did manage 13 targets against the Panthers, good for a 33% target share, but he managed just five catches for 72 scoreless yards. He followed that up with a dud vs. the Bears, finishing with six targets, two catches, and 24 yards.
Adams stands out as a middling option on DraftKings, but he has solid appeal on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $8,800 on that site, and his 93% Bargain Rating ranks second on the slate.
Rashid Shaheed is the only other offensive player in this price range, and there’s a significant dropoff from Adams to him. He’s priced at just $5,200 on DraftKings, but that honestly still might be too expensive.
Shaheed’s biggest impact since being acquired by the Seahawks has been as a returner. He’s already returned three kicks for touchdowns, including on the opening kickoff last week vs. the 49ers. He also had two carries for 27 yards in that contest, but he earned just two targets and caught neither of them.
Since landing in Seattle, Shaheed has managed just a 65% route participation and 10% target share. Those are not the type of numbers you’d expect for a No. 2 receiver. He’s always a threat for a big play on offense or on special teams, but he’s overpriced for his median outcome.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The Rams Defense is the cheapest of the bunch, but they stand out with the best projected Plus/Minus of the group. Jason Myers has the largest gap between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership of the quartet, so he’s the most undervalued per Sim Labs.
- A.J. Barner ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) – Barner had a 79% route participation last week, though he failed to earn a single target. However, he’s been a pretty consistent part of the offense for most of the year. He averaged 3.1 receptions and 30.5 receiving yards per game during the regular season, and he also scored seven touchdowns. He had at least 15.0 DraftKings points in both previous games vs. the Rams, so he has some appeal at a very reasonable price tag.
- Cooper Kupp ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) – Kupp started the year slowly, but he has been the team’s clear No. 2 receiver in recent weeks despite the addition of Shaheed. He’s been on the field for a higher percentage of passing plays, and he’s garnered many more targets. He actually led the team in target share last week vs. the 49ers, catching all five of his looks for 60 yards. He’s a bit pricy on FanDuel, but he’s definitely in play on DraftKings.
- Blake Corum ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) – Corum has to deal with the same brutal matchup as Williams, but he’ll have to do it with fewer opportunities. Even if he sees more carries than he did last week (20% carry share), he’s still going to be fighting in uphill battle.
- Colby Parkinson ($3,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) – Parkinson turned in some big performances for the Rams during the regular season, but he’s lost some opportunities as the team has gotten healthier. In addition to Adams rejoining the fray, the team has also utilized three different options at tight end. Parkinson still led the position group with an 18% target share last week, but his route participation dipped below 50% for the first time since Week 13.
- Tyler Higbee ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) – Higbee is also in the mix for the Rams at tight end. However, he was on the field for just eight snaps last week, and he saw just two targets. He’s the least appealing of the trio.
- Jordan Whittington ($2,200 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) – Whittington’s route participation was up to 54% last week, which was the third-best mark among the Rams’ receivers. That’s a solid mark for someone in this price range. He caught both of his targets for 35 yards, and he had one catch in each of his first two games vs. the Seahawks.
- George Holani ($2,000 DraftKings, $1,000 FanDuel) – Holani was activated from IR, and he’s expected to serve as the backup to Walker in this contest. That said, it remains to be seen how much he’ll actually be on the field. Cam Akers and Velus Jones were also elevated from the practice squad, so they could also get in the mix at running back.
- Terrance Ferguson ($1,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – Ferguson returned for the Rams last week and immediately stepped back into a decent role. His route participation was just 39%, but he was targeted on 28% of his routes run. He has some pass-catching chops, so he could be a prominent part of the passing attack when he’s on the field vs. Seattle.
- Eric Saubert ($600 DraftKings, $1,000 FanDuel) – Saubert is a DK special at just $600. He hasn’t been much of a factor for the Seahawks this season, but he’s had a route participation of at least 43% in back-to-back games. If he can catch a pass or two, there’s a chance that he finds himself in the optimal lineup in a “stars-and-scrubs” type of construction.
Pictured: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Photo Credit: Kevin Ng, Imagn
