For the Divisional Round, DraftKings’ biggest contests are on the full weekend slate, which features all four games and starts on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET.
There are also Saturday-only and Sunday-only slates, though, so while I’ll be mainly focused on the four-game slate, I’ll note where applicable players who might not stand out on the larger slate but have some value on the smaller ones.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,100) Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at Denver Broncos (46 Total)
As is frequently the case, in a close game last week Josh Allen put the Bills on his back. He managed to top 30 DraftKings points despite throwing for under 300 yards and just one touchdown, thanks to two rushing touchdowns, both around the goal line. Buffalo clearly wants the ball in the hands of their best player in close games — which is a great sign for this weekend.
The Bills are slight underdogs as they travel to Denver to take on the AFC’s one seed. The Broncos are a good-not-great defense with a reputation that exceeds their actual performance, and of the eight teams playing this weekend, they have the third-highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed against QBs. That’s not a defense I’d make a point to target, but it’s certainly not one that will scare me off a player like Allen.
The most compelling reason to roster Allen in tournaments is more strategic than anything else. As we saw last week, he can post week-winning scores without bringing any other Bills pieces with him. While that can be a bad thing, in the context of this slate, it provides an interesting opportunity. We have a pair of expensive wide receivers who dominate their team’s targets and can get there without their quarterback, so playing either of them with Allen allows you to capture the upside from two teams’ passing attacks.
Plus, unstacked QBs will cut down on the effective ownership of your roster. That’s an important factor to consider with Allen, who leads the position in ownership projection. Of course, he also leads the position in median and ceiling projection.
Value: Sam Darnold ($5,400) Seattle Seahawks (-7) vs. San Francisco 49ers (45 Total)
On the cheaper end of the spectrum, our projections have Seahawks QB Sam Darnold as the best play. Seattle is the heaviest favorite on the slate and tied for the highest team total, which could be both a good and a bad thing for Darnold.
On the one hand, we want QBs from teams that are going to score points. On the other hand, Seattle had one of the lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation rates in the NFL this season, so they could be extremely run-heavy if this game goes according to the betting lines. Seattle is 1-1 against the 49ers this season, and Darnold has been held under 9 DraftKings points in both contests, with relatively low volume in both matchups.
He’s unlikely to score that little again, but it’s also hard to see him hitting much of a ceiling. If he plays well early, Seattle will lean on the run, and if he doesn’t, it’s hard for him to put up too many points. That is, unless this turns into a shootout, which feels relatively unlikely given Seattle’s strong defense.
For those reasons, I have some interest in Darnold for cash games (especially on the Saturday only slate) but not much in GPPs, unless using him as part of game stacks around this game.
Quick Hits
Matthew Stafford ($6,800): I was more interested in Stafford until I saw the weather report for Rams-Bears, which has extremely cold temperatures, moderate wind, and a chance of snow. None of those things by themselves are necessarily a red flag, but combined they could be an issue. On the plus side, the Rams are tied with Seattle for the highest team total and have the best matchup for QBs, so there’s a lot to like if you’re willing to fade the weather.
Drake Maye ($6,300): Josh Allen 2.0 wasn’t needed much last week as the Patriots handled the Chargers easily, but he still flashed some upside with his legs, running ten times for 66 yards. This week he’ll need to throw more in a closer (at least on paper) game, but it’s also a tough matchup against the Texans’ elite defense.
Caleb Williams ($6,100): The Rams are the second-best matchup for QBs by Opponent Plus/Minus, which would give this game some sneaky shootout potential if not for the weather issues. Since Chicago involves more receivers than the Rams, I like game stacks built around Williams (alongside the Rams’ top receivers) more than those with Stafford, but we’ll see what the weather report looks like as we get closer to the weekend.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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