NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Friday, December 5)

Friday features an 11-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

This is one of the largest slates of the young season, and there are plenty of big injuries to consider. Giannis Antetokounmpo is undoubtedly one of the biggest. He went down with a calf strain in his last outing, and he’s been ruled out for Friday’s matchup vs. the 76ers.

In his absence, Kevin Porter Jr. is going to have to pick up the slack on offense. KPJ has only suited up in three games this season, but he’s wasted little time making an impact. He had 50.5 DraftKings points across 31 minutes in his second outing, and he followed that up with 41.0 DraftKings points in 35.2 minutes on Wednesday. Porter’s usage rate spiked to 36.1% in that outing, which is an astronomical figure for someone in this price range. He’s averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and that figure could certainly rise with Antetokounmpo sidelined.

Porter is projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, and he ranks second on the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus. He also owns the top optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs, making him a fantastic way to start your lineups.

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Value

Darius Garland will get the night off for the Cavaliers, which should open up a few additional minutes for Lonzo Ball. Ball hasn’t had his most productive season, but he’s still a fantastic per-minute producer (0.92 DKFP per minute). He’s projected for 26 minutes at just $4,500, and Ball has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.50 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

The Cavs also stand out from a matchup standpoint. They’re taking on the Spurs in a game with a nearly 240-point total. Cleveland is implied for 121.75 points, which is the fourth-highest mark of the day.

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Fast Break

T.J. McConnell stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings, where his $4,700 salary comes with a 96% Bargain Rating. McConnell doesn’t typically play a ton of minutes, but that doesn’t stop him from racking up fantasy points. We saw that in his last outing. He played just 16.5 minutes in a loss to the Nuggets but still managed 31.75 DraftKings points. He should see closer to 20 minutes Friday vs. the Bulls, and McConnell has posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games.

If you’re looking to pay up for one of the big guns at point guard, James Harden might be your best bet. He’s slightly underpriced at $9,200, with Harden averaging a Plus/Minus of +10.75 with a comparable salary so far this season. Harden has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s scored at least 51.75 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. 

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Lakers are expected to be without their two biggest superstars on Friday. Luka Doncic missed Thursday’s game due to personal reasons, and head coach J.J. Redick told reporters that he does not have a firm return date. LeBron James has also yet to play in a back-to-back this season. We’re still waiting on the team’s official injury report, but it seems like both players will be out vs. the Celtics.

That leaves Austin Reaves to carry the load on offense. So far this season, Reaves has been an absolute demon with both players off the floor. He’s seen a usage bump of +8.85% in that split, resulting in an average of 1.67 DraftKings points per minute. In three full games without both players, Reaves has averaged 67.17 DraftKings points across just under 40 minutes per game.

He leads all shooting guards in projected Plus/Minus, and he has the top ceiling projection at the position as well. It’s hard to beat that combination.

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Value

Collin Gillespie isn’t a true “value play” at $6,900, but he is undoubtedly one of the strongest backcourt options on Friday’s slate. He has been phenomenal for the Suns this season, averaging 1.07 DraftKings points per minute, and he should see a significant boost in responsibilities with Devin Booker sidelines. Booker exited the team’s last game after less than 10 minutes, and Gillespie responded with 47.5 DraftKings points in that contest. Overall, he’s seen a +5.78% usage bump with Booker off the floor this season, and he’s increased his production to 1.28 DraftKings points per minute in that split.

Gillespie will have his hands full with the Rockets’ elite defense on Friday, but he still leads all shooting guards in optimal lineup rate. He also has eligibility at both backcourt spots.

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Fast Break

Donovan Mitchell is another member of the Cavs who should benefit from Garland’s absence. He’s off to an elite start this season, averaging a career-best 30.7 points per game, and he’s seen a slight usage bump with Garland off the floor. He should command less ownership than Reaves in the same price range, but the Cavs are implied for more than 12 additional points than the Lakers on this slate. That makes him an interesting pivot for tournaments.

Norman Powell just keeps on scoring. He’s had at least 28 points in three of his past four games, and he’s coming off 44.25 DraftKings points in the Heat’s last outing. His price has come back down to $6,600 after spiking to $7,400 last month, and Powell has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.19 with a comparable salary this season. He remains firmly in play at this price point.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

It has been a disastrous start to the season for the Clippers. Outside of Harden, nothing has gone well for them. The decision to turn Powell into Bradley Beal and John Collins has massively backfired, while Chris Paul was basically told to take his ball and go home.

Kawhi Leonard has also played just 12 games, and the team is 2-10 without him. They haven’t been much better with him (4-8), but he’s still capable of making a difference when he’s on the floor.

For fantasy purposes, Leonard has looked like his usual self of late. He’s scored at least 45.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, despite playing 30.4 minutes or fewer in each of them. His playing time spiked to 35.4 minutes in the team’s last outing, which is a positive development for his outlook going forward. Leonard has still averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s underpriced at $8,000 if he’s going to play that much. His salary comes with a 95% Bargain Rating, giving him plenty of upside vs. the Grizzlies.

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Value

Jarace Walker is projected for 28.5 minutes on Friday’s slate, which should be more than enough for him to return value at $4,200. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.55. Walker has personally fit that trend on four previous occasions this season, and he’s averaged a +5.37 Plus/Minus. He’s ultimately not the most exciting value option on the slate, but he stands out as one of the best sources of value at small forward.

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Fast Break

The Blazers continue to play without some key players, including point guard Jrue Holiday. That has allowed Jerami Grant to pick up a few additional shot attempts in recent games. He’s scored at least 32.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again on Friday. He leads the position in optimal lineup rate, and only Powell has a better projected Plus/Minus.

De’Andre Hunter is another potential option for Cleveland. He has struggled recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games, but there’s no reason to expect that trend to continue. He’s routinely playing 30+ minutes per game, and he’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute for the year. He’s seen a team-high +1.55% usage bump with Garland off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.07 DraftKings points per minute.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Power forward is usually a strong position, and there are plenty of high-priced names to consider on Friday. However, none of the top options stand out as particularly good values.

Karl-Anthony Towns has the highest ceiling projection, and the Knicks have massive offensive appeal vs. the Jazz. Utah ranks fourth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency this season, so the Knicks can do a ton of damage in this spot. They’re currently implied for 128.5 points, which is the top mark of the day by nearly five full points.

Towns has been hit or miss of late, but when he goes off, he has a monster ceiling. He went for 71.5 DraftKings points in his last contest, and he had 65.0 DraftKings points two weeks ago. Those games were against equally weak opponents (the Hornets and Nets), so Towns could certainly put together a big game vs. Utah. He’s projected for less than 5% ownership, making him an interesting contrarian stud for tournaments.

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Value

Keldon Johnson has posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, but his stock is still pointing up. The Spurs are still without Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, and Johnson is one of their top offensive options with both players sidelined. He’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s currently projected for 25 minutes vs. the Cavaliers. 

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Fast Break

If Doncic and James are both sidelined for the Lakers, Jake LaRavia could be a nice value option to consider. He hasn’t been a huge factor for the team when at full strength – averaging just 0.77 DraftKings points per minute – but that figure increases to 0.87 with both superstars off the floor. In four full games without both guys, LaRavia has averaged 30.56 DraftKings points. You’ll gladly take that at $4,500.

The Cavs will also be missing Jarrett Allen on this slate, which gives Evan Mobley a bit more appeal than usual. That’s particularly true on DraftKings, where his $8,600 salary comes with an 87% Bargain Rating. Mobley has scored at least 53.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he could certainly do it again vs. the Spurs.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic has seen a slight price drop for Friday’s slate, but he still checks in at a ridiculous $12,900. While that is still way too expensive for Jokic’s median projection, he’s always going to have some appeal in tournaments. When he goes off, it doesn’t really matter what his price tag is. There are only a few players on the planet who can put up 80+ fantasy points on a nightly basis, and Jokic is right at the top of that list. He had 84.5 DraftKings points just two games ago, and he’s averaged 1.92 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s somehow gotten even better, so having just a smidge of exposure to Jokic is always warranted.

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Value

We’re still waiting on Utah’s official injury report, but Kelly Olynyk is popping as one of the best values of the day in our NBA Models. He’s priced at just $3,200, but he’s expected to see around 22 minutes of playing time. Olynyk is still extremely dangerous on a per-minute basis, averaging 0.94 DraftKings points per minute for the year. Olynyk has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.88 with a comparable salary and minute projection, and he leads all centers in projected Plus/Minus on this slate.

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Fast Break

Steven Adams has been a solid option for DFS players this season. He’s not expensive, typically gets around 20 minutes a night, and has averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He ranks second at the position in projected Plus/Minus, though he checks in well behind Olynyk.

Moussa Diabate is another low-risk option to consider for cash games. He’s priced at just $4,500, resulting in a 95% Bargain Rating, and he’s been a steady contributor for most of the year. He has the highest optimal lineup rate of the value centers on this slate, with only Mobley checking in above him.

Pictured: Kevin Porter Jr.
Photo Credit: Imagn