Week 5 presents a 10-game main slate on DraftKings on Sunday. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 5.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Justin Fields ($5,600) + Garrett Wilson ($6,100) + George Pickens ($6,600) + Jake Ferguson ($4,800)
While all four of these players are expected to be popular plays this week, very few lineups should include all four players together as a game stack. This Jets vs. Cowboys contest should produce a ton of high fantasy scores. These are two of the five worst-graded defenses on PFF this season and this game is tied for the second-highest total on the slate (47.5 points). Plus, Dallas is only favored by 1.5 points.
The Cowboys are the ultimate matchup to attack for fantasy this season, as their defense is giving up the most yards per pass in the NFL (8.8) and Dak Prescott has been moving the ball very well for Dallas on offense, resulting in many huge shootouts. This season, Cowboy games are generating a ridiculous 61.5 PPG.
Fields has been awesome in the two games he has started and completed this season, scoring 29.52 and 28.14 DraftKings points in these two starts. The quarterback is throwing the ball more efficiently than ever, averaging a career-high 7.9 YPA, which ranks ninth among quarterbacks and he has thrown two touchdowns to no picks. As always, Fields has also been very aggressive as a rusher, with 24 carries in the 2.5 games he has played and rushing the ball on 15% of his snaps. Fields has already rushed the ball four times in the red zone and he has found the paydirt with his legs three times. Combine his excellent efficiency as a passer and rusher, and Fields ranks first among all quarterbacks in DraftKings per snap this season (0.83). The 26-year-old has a long history of playing better on his home turf and Fields could go nuts in this dream matchup vs. the Cowboys. If we exclude Week 2 of this season when Fields exited early due to a concussion, he is averaging a huge 31.1 DraftKings PPG when competing at home with a total of at least 45 points for his career (six games), via the Trends Tool.
Stacking Fields with Wilson is a no-brainer, as the wideout has been the Jets’ undisputed No. 1 weapon this season. Wilson ranks third in the NFL in target share (36.5%), including three targets over 20 yards and one red-zone target. The receiver ranks 15th in YPPR (2.49) and he has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in three of his four starts. Wilson ranks 10th among receivers in DraftKings points per snap (0.32) and he should shred this Dallas defense that is giving up the most yards (827) and touchdowns to receivers this season (9).
With CeeDee Lamb (ankle) sidelined, the Cowboys’ targets are extremely concentrated on Pickens and Ferguson, and both players should have strong showings against this Jets defense that is giving up the seventh-most yards per pass this season (7.2). Lamb played nine snaps in Week 3 before getting hurt and then he missed Week 4, and with the star wideout essentially inactive for these past two games, Pickens and Ferguson are scoring 27.1 and 19.1 DraftKings PPG, respectively, making them both the No. 2 scoring players at their positions over the last two weeks. During this stretch, Ferguson is leading Dallas with a 25.6% target share, while Pickens is right behind Ferguson with a 24.4% target share. Pickens has seen five targets over 20 yards and four red-zone targets, while Ferguson has garnered three red-zone targets. As you can see, both Pickens and Ferguson are elite fantasy assets with Lamb on the shelf, and in this elite setting vs. the Jets, both players have top-three ceilings on the slate at their positions.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Woody Marks ($5,400)
After being the featured running back in this article last week and going off for 27.9 DraftKings points while seeing minimal ownership in GPPs, we need to go right back to Marks again for Week 5. One would think after his breakout performance that Marks would be far more expensive and a chalky play the following week, but that is not the case at all, as the rookie remains very underpriced and he is expected to get way overlooked again this week with the running back position filled with attractive plays. Marks is slated to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings according to our projections, making him once again an incredible GPP play.
Marks has seen his snap rate increase each week this season and he finally stole the Texans’ lead back job from Nick Chubb this past Sunday vs. the Titans. Marks rushed for 69 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries and he caught four of his five targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. While Chubb set season lows in snap rate (42.3%) and rush share (43.3%), Marks set season highs in snap share (56.3%), rush share (56.7%), route rate (38%), and target share (17.9%). Notably, Marks saw the Texans’ only red-zone carry and only red-zone target.
Chubb will still see some work, but this is clearly Marks’ backfield going forward and with the Texans as 2.5-point favorites vs. the Ravens this Sunday, Marks approaching 25 touches is a realistic possibility, giving him huge upside in this excellent spot. This season, Baltimore is the 10th-worst graded defense on PFF and the club is giving up the most touchdowns to running backs (7). Furthermore, the Ravens are allowing the ninth-most yards per rush (4.6).
Marks has been ultra-efficient, ranking seventh among all running backs in DraftKings points per touch (1.11) and 13th in DraftKings points per snap (0.43), and in this plus spot, another performance over 20 DraftKings points is a real possibility for the rookie.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Elic Ayomanor ($4,100)
Ayomanor has been a great surprise so far in his rookie season. The 22-year-old out of Stanford is leading Tennessee with a 22.1% target share and he has scored 13+ DraftKings points in two of his four games. Ayomanor is also leading the Titans with six targets over 20 yards and three red-zone targets. In fact, the receiver’s 14.4 aDOT ranks eighth among all the players who have seen at least 20 targets this season.
Some big outings are coming soon for Ayomanor given his elite utilization downfield and this Sunday is setting up to be a very optimal situation for the receiver. Calvin Ridley ranks second for the Titans in target share this season (21.2%) and the veteran is trending toward sitting this Sunday, as Ridley has yet to practice this week due to knee and elbow injuries. If the wideout sits as expected, Ayomanor’s already team-high target share should naturally increase, and to put the icing on the cake, he is facing a soft Cardinals’ secondary that is giving up the third-most catches (58) and eighth-most yards to receivers this season (626).
Tennessee should be forced to air it out as 7.5-point underdogs and Ayomanor has the potential for his first career 20+ DraftKings point performance. According to our projections, Ayomanor is slated to be around only 2% owned on DraftKings this week.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Darren Waller ($3,500)
Waller (hip) made his season debut for the Dolphins this past Monday vs. the Jets and the veteran made a major impact right out of the gate, catching three of his four targets for 27 yards and two touchdowns (17.7 DraftKings points). Waller only ran a route on 36% of his team’s dropbacks, but he saw a target on an elite 40% of those routes, including two red-zone targets that he turned into two scores.
Waller’s route rate should increase this week and he should continue to see plenty of usage when on the field, with Tyreek Hill (knee) done for the season. The receiver is leading Miami with a 23.9% target share this season and with Hill out of the picture, Waller could operate as the Dolphins’ No. 2 pass catcher behind Jaylen Waddle.
While 33 years old, Waller has always been an excellent target earner throughout his career, and he is in a plus spot vs. the Panthers, who are the fourth-worst graded defense on PFF this season. Carolina uses zone coverage at the third-highest clip in the NFL (86%) and the Panthers are giving up the second-most yards per reception to tight ends (11.0). Waller has a ceiling over 15 DraftKings points in this spot and with our projections slating him to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings, Waller is the best contrarian tight end play on the slate.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
Pictured: Elic Ayomanor
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
