Week 3 delivers a 13-game main slate on DraftKings on Sunday. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 3.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Caleb Williams ($5,400) + Rome Odunze ($5,300) + DJ Moore ($5,400) + CeeDee Lamb ($8,000)
This Bears vs. Cowboys matchup has shootout written all over it. These defenses are two of the five-worst graded by PFF this season, and this game’s total is the highest on the slate by five points (50.5 points).
Williams hasn’t been overly efficient as a passer, ranking 23rd in YPA (6.4), but this is a perfect spot for the former No. 1 overall pick to find his groove, as Dallas is giving up the fifth-most yards per pass in the league (8.8). Despite his inefficiencies as a passer, Williams has thrown three for touchdowns and has been active on the ground. He’s averaged 5.5 carries per game, including three redzone attempts in just two games. Williams has scored 24.2 and 17.98 DraftKings points in his first two starts of the season, and being at home is a huge plus for the quarterback. In five of his eight last starts at home, Williams has scored at least 24 DraftKings points.
In this elite spot, double-stacking Williams with both Odunze and Moore makes a ton of sense. Odunze has taken on a much bigger role in his second season, leading the Bears with a 29.9% target share, which has helped the wideout score 15.7 and a career-high 34.8 DraftKings points in his first two games. Odunze has seen six targets over 20 yards — tied for the third-most in the NFL — and he has seen three redzone targets.
Both Williams and Odunze will be popular plays, but adding Moore to this stack is what will diversify you from the crowd. The veteran is slated for single-digit ownership according to our projections, as he has had a quiet start to his season, with just 9.6 DraftKings points in each of his first two starts. With the Cowboys’ weak secondary in town, this is the perfect spot for Moore to come alive. Moore topped 20 DraftKings points four times last season, and while Odunze has taken on a more prominent role this season, Moore is still handling a 16.4% target share and has garnered two targets over 20 yards.
Both Odunze and Moore having big performances is possible in this slate-high total. In this type of environment, having a bring-back option from the Cowboys is a necessity, bringing me to the always reliable Lamb. The star receiver has been terrific to start this season, scoring over 20 DraftKings points in each of his first two starts while leading Dallas with a massive 28.2% target share. Lamb has seen great usage downfield, sitting in a tie for the third-most targets over 20 yards (six). His 12.8 average depth of target (aDOT) is also a huge jump from his 7.8 mark last season. The Bears have already allowed two touchdowns on targets greater than 20 yards this season, so Lamb could erupt in this spot.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Travis Etienne Jr. ($5,900)
With Jordan Mason and Tony Pollard both expected to be chalky running back plays in the $5,000 range, Etienne is getting way overlooked and is a sharp GPP play. Our projections currently have him slated for single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
Etienne has flourished as the Jaguars’ clear No. 1 back this season, scoring 21.6 and 16.9 DraftKings points in his first two starts. The 26-year-old has been tremendous as a rusher, ranking second in YPC (7.1) and fifth in yards after contact (137) among running backs that have seen at least 10 carries.
Usage-wise, Etienne is averaging 15 carries per game while logging 63.5% of the snaps. The veteran ranks fifth in redzone carries among running backs (eight), and as a receiver, Etienne has seen a target on 16% of his routes run.
This Sunday, Etienne is facing a Texans defense that is the 21st-highest graded unit by PFF this season. The Jaguars carry a solid 22.75-point implied team total, and the club is a 1.5-point home favorite, which always bodes well for running backs. When competing as a home favorite throughout his career, Etienne has produced 17.4 DraftKings PPG, and he has surpassed 20 DraftKings points in five of these 13 games (via the Trends Tool).
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Troy Franklin ($4,000)
Franklin went off for a career-high 24 DraftKings points vs. the Colts last week, and we can go right back to the wideout this week at this affordable $4,000 salary and a less than 3% ownership projection on DraftKings.
While Marvin Mims Jr. was the Broncos’ receiver who was hyped up for fantasy football this summer, it has been Franklin who has seen the biggest increase in usage. The second-year wideout out of Oregon is leading Denver in target share (20.7%) — including three redzone targets and two targets over 20 yards — while ranking second for the team in route rate (76%).
60.3% of Franklin’s routes have come from the slot, and this week, he is going against a Chargers defense that has given up the third-most receiving yards to players lined up in the slot this season. This AFC West matchup presents the second-highest on the slate (45.5 points), and the Broncos are a 2.5-point underdog. Denver could be forced to air it out in this spot, and Franklin should easily out-produce his cheap price tag.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Kyle Pitts ($3,900)
Taking a flier on Pitts is a great call for GPPs this week. The tight end is slated to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings, and Pitts has been solid so far this season, generating 12.9 and 7.7 DraftKings points in his first two games.
With Michael Penix Jr. under center for the Falcons, Pitts ranks second for Atlanta in target share (20.6%) and route rate (87%), trailing only Drake London in both categories. Albeit over a small two-game sample, Pitts has hauled in 84.6% of his targets this season, which is a huge improvement from his ugly 63.5% catch rate last season.
Pitts clearly has much better chemistry with Penix than he did with Kirk Cousins last season, and Pitts meets a zone-heavy Panthers defense this Sunday that has been shredded by tight ends this season. Carolina has given up the second-most receiving yards (188) and the second-most plays over 15 yards (five) to opposing tight ends. Ultimately, Pitts’ ceiling ranks top-five among tight ends, and his leverage score ranks top-10 among all skill players.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
Pictured: Travis Etienne Jr.
Photo Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
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