The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant at Houston Rockets – $10,100 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Morant has the highest projected ceiling and the highest median projection of any player at point guard as he and the Grizz visit Houston. Ja opened the season with 53 DKFP on 34 points, nine assists, four boards, and a block in 38 minutes during Wednesday’s 115-112 overtime win over the Knicks.
Memphis has the second-highest Vegas implied team total in what should be an up-tempo game against the young Rockets, and Morant has the highest usage projection of any point guard on the slate. He trails only Dejounte Murray in FP/Min and only Trae Young in actual usage, but since those two Hawks are still figuring out their new rotation and work share, I think Morant is the better high-priced point guard on Friday.
Top Value: Tre Jones at Indiana Pacers – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Jones is lined up for a starting role following Murray’s offseason departure, and he still is a solid value on Friday even though he didn’t go off as many people were counting on as a chalky play Wednesday. He did contribute a solid 29.6 DKFP on 14 points, three boards, two assists, two blocks, and a steal in 24 minutes.
In the game with the highest over/under on the slate, the Spurs are in a favorable matchup against the Pacers. Jones has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position on FanDuel and the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at point guard on DraftKings, where he’s a little better bargain. His timeshare with Joshua Primo will be an important one to watch as the season goes on, but for now, Jones is getting enough work that he’s very solid.
On DraftKings, he has the highest projected ceiling of any point guard under $6.5K, and on FanDuel, he has the highest projected ceiling of any point guard under $6K.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Portland Trail Blazers – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Booker has the highest median projection and the highest ceiling at shooting guard on this slate as he and the Suns head up to Portland. He is projected for the minutes and the highest usage percentage among shooting guards, so the models are pointing to a busy night for him. He checks of 10 Pro Trends in the FanDuel model and eight Pro Trends in the DraftKings model.
He started the season with 28 points, nine assists, four rebounds, and 48 DKFP in 41 minutes while leading an impressive comeback against the Mavs to win on Wednesday. As he reminded everyone in that contest, Booker can stuff the stat sheet in multiple categories, but his main upside comes from his ability to score points in bunches.
Top Value: Josh Hart vs. Phoenix Suns – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
On the other side of that matchup, it looks like Hart is in for a workhorse role this year for the Blazers. He played 38 minutes in the season opener and posted 36.25 DKFP on 19 points, seven rebounds, five assists and a steal. His non-scoring production makes him both a stable option and an option with a high ceiling.
Since he’s a little cheaper on DraftKings, he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of any shooting guard on the slate and the second-highest projected points per $1,000 of salary.
Hart isn’t usually a usage hog, but his well-rounded production gives him good projections if he stays in such a key role in Portland’s rotation.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan at Washington Wizards– $8,700 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
DeRozan has the third-highest ceiling among small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but I will take the bit of a discount and roll with him Friday, especially due to the absence of Zach LaVine (knee), who will miss his second straight game to start the year.
Using our On/Off Tool, last season, when LaVine and Lonzo Ball (knee) were off the court, DeRozan’s usage increased by 6.8 percentage points to 39.3%. DeRozan had a 31.0% usage rate in Wednesday’s season opener, producing 64.5 DKFP on 37 points, nine assists, six rebounds, two steals, and a blocked shot in an eight-point win in Miami.
For as long as Ball and LaVine are out, DeRozan should get enough usage to offer a ton of upside, and he has the highest usage projection of any small forward on the slate by a margin of over five percentage points.
He matches 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel and nine on DraftKings.
Top Value: Cameron Johnson at Portland Trail Blazers – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Johnson is stepping into a larger role with the Suns this year, but he’s still a bargain at this point of the season, especially on FanDuel. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on FanDuel and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on DraftKings.
The fourth-year forward started on Wednesday and produced 24.25 DKFP on 15 points, three rebounds, and two blocks in 27 minutes, but his potential is for much more, as indicated by his high ceiling projection of 44.26 on FanDuel and 46.17 on DraftKings. That puts him in the top 10 ceiling projections on DraftKings, so getting him at only $5K is a great deal. Since he’s even more affordable on FanDuel, it makes sense to build around on either site.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Miami Heat – $8,800 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Tatum is surprisingly affordable on DraftKings but is worth a look on either site after his impressive opening night. He finished with 61 DKFP on 35 points, 12 rebounds, four assists, a steal, and a block in his 39 minutes against the Sixers and looked dominant as the top option in the Celtics’ offense. Tatum has the second-highest median projection at PF on this slate, behind just DeRozan, and the second-highest ceiling behind only Kevin Durant, who is more expensive.
Especially considering how DeRozan carved up the Heat’s defense, Tatum should be in a good spot to deliver another big game as he continues to show his emergence as a next-level star.
Top Value: Michael Porter Jr. at Golden State Warriors – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
The best news for the Nuggets and potential fantasy players is that MPJ has looked healthy coming into the season. Denver didn’t look good in their opener, losing to the lowly Jazz, but he still produced 26.25 DKFP on 15 points, seven rebounds, one assist, and one steal in 35 minutes. He was just a few rebounds short of a double-double, but playing him Friday is much more based on his potential upside when healthy than on his performance on Wednesday.
The Nuggets listed Nikola Jokic (finger) as probable and Jamal Murray (knee) as questionable for their game at Golden State. If either is out or limited, even more offensive work could come MPJ’s way.
On DraftKings, he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus among power forwards, and on FanDuel, he has the highest median projection of all power forwards under $6K.
Center
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Brooklyn Nets – $8,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
While Deandre Ayton is a nice way to finish a Suns’ mini-stack and comes at a good discount, he can’t quite match the ceiling of Siakam. Siakam had 44.25 DKFP on 23 points, 11 rebounds, three steals, and an assist despite a tough matchup with the oversized Cavaliers. He brings the third-highest ceiling among Cs on both sites, but Jokic has injury questions and a tough matchup against the Warriors, while Karl-Anthony Towns is still settling into his new role with the Wolves.
Siakam is established as the go-to option in Toronto and should see more assists as the Raps’ offense finds its groove. He is projected for the second-highest usage among centers on this slate, behind only Jokic, and comes at a much more affordable salary.
Top Value: Bruno Fernando vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
In a surprising move, Fernando got the start for the Rockets on Wednesday over promising young center Alperen Sengun. He only logged 25 minutes but played very well, posting 32.75 DKFP on seven points, nine rebounds, seven assists and two blocks. If he draws another start in this matchup with Memphis, he has definite double-double potential and a good ceiling for a cheap play.
Of the centers under $6.5K on FanDuel, Fernando has the highest projected Plus/Minus and the third-highest ceiling. On DraftKings, he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus and the second-highest ceiling of centers under $6K. The Rockets have been touting Fernando as a “great fit” in their up-tempo style, and he looks like he’s an excellent early-season value option at center.
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