NBA DFS Breakdown (Sunday, Jan. 24): Blazers’ Lillard, Spurs’ DeRozan Headline Small Card

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Sunday’s slate features five games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.

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Point Guard

Stud

The issue with point guard today is a lack of stud options due to injury concerns. It has been a theme in the NBA because of expected injuries and COVID-19 issues, but it also limits the ability to differentiate when trying to find value in the top tiers. Damian Lillard is the alpha and omega at the top of the position. He leads the spot at Projected Plus/Minus and Points Per Salary on FanDuel. He has a top-five Leverage Score on both sites, which matters with position flexibility on DraftKings.

Value

Patty Mills is staring down the barrel at a start with Dejounte Murray questionable to play tonight. He is a top five play using our NBA Model and is the top Bargain play on FanDuel. The Spurs-Wizards game is tied for the highest projected game total using out Vegas Model.

Fast Break

Kemba Walker’s minutes have increased in each of his three games played and is an auto play if he is priced below $7,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings. Jayson Tatum is out Sunday so expect more of the scoring onus to fall on Walker as he continues to ramp up his workload.

Elfrid Payton and LaMelo Ball are two players expected to have lower ownership that intrigue me. Payton faces a defensively inept Portland team, while Ball continues to figure out the league as a rookie and has peaks and valleys.

Trae Young is questionable with back spasms and if he does not play, Jrue Holiday becomes a top play at the position. Hawks-Bucks is the other game with the highest projected game total on the slate.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Bradley Beal and DeMar DeRozan square off on the card. Beal is the more expensive option, but DeRozan rates much higher using our NBA Model.

Value

Garrison Matthews is going to draw a lot of attention after two good showing with the Wizards, but Lonnie Walker is in line for increased minutes with injuries littering San Antonio’s guards. In games where his usage is at least 20% percent, he has scored 20 or more FanDuel points in five of seven contests.

Fast Break

Devonte’ Graham is balling for Charlotte. He has reached 30 FanDuel points in six of his last seven games, plus has a six-game steals streak.

Alec Burks has been rusty in his return, but gets a matchup with a porous Trail Blazers defense. He is expected to see approximately 10 percent ownership.

Collin Sexton is the top leverage play at the shooting guard position. He is in the middle of pricing between Beal and DeRozan.

Small Forward

Stud

Jaylen Brown has scored at least 20 points in six straight games including a 42-point outburst Friday. Like Kemba Walker, Brown is going to be a focal point on offense for Boston and will continue to shoot the ball. Brown is a streaky shooter but does well enough in secondary categories to limit his downside.

Value

Evan Fournier is listed at small forward on FanDuel but not DraftKings. As a Fournier apologist, I see no reason to fade Fournier despite his ownership expected to be elevated on FanDuel. He is the top play at the three on FanDuel and top-three play overall.

In terms of dart throws, Isaac Bonga is the last man standing at small forward for Washington and is sub-$4,000 on both sites. He is the top-rated option on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Aaron Gordon gets a bump as a PG/SF on DraftKings and is a top five play at small forward. He is also expected to carry approximately 10-percent ownership as a pivot from Brown as an upper-tier priced player.

Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Jones Jr. get bumps from me as FanDuel plays because of Portland’s injury issues and the need to play two small forwards in traditional games. The Knicks allow positive Opponent Projected Plus/Minus to small forwards as well. Anthony is a top-two bargain at the position.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokoumpo has the highest projected point total on FanDuel and DraftKings regardless of position. Power forward is not an enticing position to spend down at this evening, making Giannis and Julius Randle anchors in many lineups. No surprise to see Giannis as the top projected owned player on both sites, as well as the top-rated power forward on DraftKings.

Value

Robert Covington is an NBA Model darling and is a low-priced option on DraftKings with little ownership expected to be attached to him with position flexibility. He could double LaMarcus Aldridge in ownership on FanDuel, making Aldridge the better play there. Aldridge is the top-rated power forward on FanDuel against the depleted Washington Wizards. He also represents the top bargain at power forward on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Anyone interested in a Tristan Thompson revenge game against Cleveland?

John Collins’ price on FanDuel ($6,600) reflects his scary floor. He could run into issues if he has to guard Giannis all night and is a fade for me.

Aaron Gordon is a top three Leverage play at power forward on FanDuel.

Anthony Gill is a top-four Bargain on DraftKings, because Washington needs bodies. Gill had a 34.8% Usage Rate in Washington’s last game, but was a dud in DFS. His minimum price will have players reaching for him as a dart throw.

Center

Stud

Clint Capela is on one heckuva heater right now and has earned the tag of most expensive center on FanDuel tonight. He is the hot name now but with pricing reasonable across the top options on FanDuel and DraftKings, his ownership should remain consistent with other top options.

Value

Capela has a fun matchup against Brook Lopez and the Bucks. Lopez is the top-rated overall player on FanDuel using our NBA Model, plus is the sixth-best overall play on FanDuel. Giannis and Khris Middleton command so much attention that Lopez has thrived. Lopez is also a three-point threat and will draw Capela away from the rim, which is an advantage for Lopez.

Another cheap option that our model is low on is Jakob Poeltl. Washington will depend on Robin Lopez and the newly signed Alex Len at center going forward with Moritz Wagner seeing time at the five as well. Poeltl is the superior athlete and has the best Opposing Plus/Minus matchup at center.

Fast Break

Center is deep on the slate and is my favorite to use at the flex position on DraftKings.

Nikola Vucevic should finesse he way to a double-double against Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo. He is a top-three center option on both sites and will be overlooked because of Capela’s run and Giannis’s dual eligibility at power forward and center on DraftKings.

Andre Drummond’s ceiling is capped with Jarrett Allen around. Thompson and Robert Williams do not impose much fear for me when looking at the Cavs’ center options, but neither stand out because they both deserve playing time.