The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Hurts vs. Los Angeles Rams – $6,800 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel
Week 2 was a bad week for quarterback injuries, with Joe Burrow (toe) and J.J. McCarthy (ankle) on IR and Jayden Daniels (knee) uncertain for this week. Daniels has a high ceiling if available, but for the top ceiling pick this week, let’s pivot to Hurts, who has the top ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the evenly-blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections that we’ll rely heavily on in this post.
Hurts started the year with back-to-back strong games to lead his team past the Cowboys and Chiefs. He threw for 152 yards in Week 1 and only 101 yards last week, but he continues to be a solid fantasy play with a high ceiling since he contributes so much as a rusher as well. He has run for 77 yards and three touchdowns in his two games this season.
The Eagles will probably need Hurts to air it out more in Week 3 against the Rams, who have been very solid on both sides of the ball in their own 2-0 start. With Matthew Stafford clicking with Davante Adams and Puka Nacua, this game could be a high-scoring contest and force Hurts to be aggressive down the field.
Hurts has a very high ceiling every week since he brings both rushing and passing potential, and with Lamar Jackson (Monday Night Football), Josh Allen (Thursday Night Football), and possibly Daniels (injury concerns) not in play, Hurts is the main pay-up ceiling play to build around at the position this Sunday.
Top Value: Caleb Williams vs. Dallas Cowboys – $5,600 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
With all the injuries at the position, there are opportunities to go ultra-cheap for the second straight week with Carson Wentz (who I previewed in Wednesday’s Early Look) as one of the bargain plays at the minimum salary. Rather than go all the way cheap, though, I think it makes sense to target Williams in a great matchup against the Cowboys. Williams has the third-highest median and ceiling projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel using the three-way aggregate, and he trails only Wentz at the position in Projected Plus/Minus.
Despite his 0-2 start, Bears’ new coach Ben Johnson seems to be making real progress with Williams and the passing game. Williams threw for 210 yards against the Vikings and 207 yards against the Lions in the last two weeks. He scored two total touchdowns each week: one rushing and one passing in Week 1 and a pair of passing touchdowns last week. He ran for 58 yards in Week 1 and 27 yards in Week 2, and his rushing production could make him an even stronger play if he continues to get so many opportunities.
In the second half of Week 2, he and the Bears could only manage seven points against Detroit while the Lions roared to a 52-21 victory. Williams still has a long way to go in the system, but there have been encouraging signs and positive plays overall.
In Week 3, he’ll have a great matchup to continue to find that success against the Cowboys, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Hurts had success against them in Week 1, but even better news for Williams is that Russell Wilson carved them up last week while cooking for 450 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Williams has a strong group of pass-catchers to work with and a great system. He’s lined up to be a great value play this week in what could be a very high-scoring game against the Cowboys. The game has the highest over/under on the board for Sunday afternoon, and the Bears are the underdog, which could put even more of the offense on Williams if they’re playing from behind.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Bijan Robinson at Carolina Panthers – $7,900 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
Robinson has the highest median and ceiling projections in the three-way aggregate this week as he and the Falcons visit the Panthers in a fantasy-friendly divisional matchup.
The Panthers have been a great matchup for running backs the last few years, and that trend has continued this season. They have allowed opponents to average 141 rushing yards against them through the first two weeks. In Week 1, they allowed 173 rushing yards to the Jags’ running backs, and in Week 2, they allowed a touchdown and 96 total yards to the Cardinals’ running backs in Arizona.
Robinson had a strong Week 2, although he wasn’t able to cap it off with a touchdown. He finished with 143 rushing yards and three catches for 25 more receiving yards, but Tyler Allgeier vultured the only rushing score. Robinson still played the majority of snaps, but Allgeier is still clearly going to be a thorn in his side.
Through the first two weeks of the season, it looks like the Falcons will rely heavily on their running game and defense while mixing in a little of Michael Penix Jr. when needed. Robinson should be in for another big workload this week in Carolina, and he has been so effective that all he needs is a score or two to be a truly elite ceiling play. The matchup is so good that Allgeier can be a flier play as well, but Bijan is the pay-up play to consider since all signs point to what could be a monster performance.
Top Value: Jordan Mason vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $5,400 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
Mason has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the board for both FanDuel and DraftKings at running back. He is vastly underpriced since salaries came out before it was clear that he would be the Vikings’ primary running back for the next few weeks with Aaron Jones (hamstring) on IR.
Mason was already splitting work with Jones and played more snaps and got more carries than Jones in Week 1, when the Vikings beat the Bears. In that win, he took 15 carries for 68 yards and tacked on a seven-yard catch as well. In Week 2, the former 49er finished with 33 rushing yards on nine carries against the Falcons and added eight yards on two receptions.
The Vikings may have to rely on Mason even more than usual this week since Wentz will be stepping in for McCarthy at quarterback. This battle of the backup QBs could follow many different scripts, but several of them set up for a huge workload for Mason.
Last season, Mason filled in for Christian McCaffrey and put up huge numbers, with 20+ carries for at least 100 rushing yards and a touchdown in three of four games. That was in a different offense, for sure, but he has similar upside in a featured-back role while Jones is out. Getting him at this bargain salary is too good to pass up this week, even though he’s likely to carry massive ownership.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: CeeDee Lamb at Chicago Bears – $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
QB injuries have impacted some of the top names at receiver as well, with the showdown between Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson complicated by both playing with backup signal-callers. For the top ceiling play this week, though, Lamb stands out in a great matchup against the Bears.
Lamb has posted over 20 DraftKings points in each of the first two weeks of the season, finishing as the WR9 in Week 1, WR10 in Week 2, and WR7 overall this season. He had double-digit targets in each game and could have had a much bigger total in each contest with a few different bounces.
In Week 1, he had seven catches on 13 targets for 110 yards, and in Week 2, he followed that up with nine catches on 11 targets for 112 yards. He hasn’t scored a touchdown yet, but still has incredibly strong production totals.
He should remain the focus for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys this week as they try to beat the Bears at Soldier Field. Dallas has the highest implied team total on the board, and Lamb specifically has a good matchup. The Bears have allowed the fourth-most points to receivers this season, and they were lit up by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams last week.
The Cowboys seem ready to throw the ball and get in more high-scoring games this season, and while this may not be last week’s Giants-Cowboys scoring-fest, it should still be an up-tempo matchup that plays to Lamb’s strengths.
Top Value: Rome Odunze at Chicago Bears – $5,300 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
On the other side of that matchup, Odunze is emerging as the clear top option in the Bears’ offense and brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in the aggregated projections. If the game against Lamb’s Cowboys does get into a back-and-forth track meet, Odunze could end up being one of the chief beneficiaries.
In Week 1, Odunze had six catches for 37 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. DJ Moore still outgained him, but Odunze paced the team in receptions and targets. He did the same in Week 2, catching seven passes on 12 targets, but he also took the top spot with 128 receiving yards to go with his two touchdowns. He finished with 34.8 DraftKings points, the fourth-highest total of all receivers in Week 2.
Odunze is still extremely affordable on both sites, and his workload seems to be very secure heading into a favorable matchup against Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the first two weeks of the year, and Malik Nabers went off for nine catches, 167 yards, and two scores against them last week.
The Williams-Oduze stack is likely to be popular in such a favorable matchup and price point, but if you find other spots to differentiate your roster, they can still be at the core of a great roster build.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at San Francisco 49ers – $5,700 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
For the second straight week, McBride is an expensive play that the projections indicate will be worth paying up for. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both sites.
He started the year by hauling in six catches for 61 yards on his nine targets against the Saints, and posted a similar line with six catches for 78 yards on seven targets in Week 2 against the Panthers. Even though he hasn’t gotten into the end zone yet this season, he remains a PPR beast and very reliable due to his huge weekly workload.
Last year, McBride had a similar profile, vacuuming up plenty of targets and catches but not getting into the end zone until the end of the year. He is still an elite play with room to grow if he starts getting more touchdowns.
This week, McBride takes on the 49ers in an important divisional game. Last week, Juwan Johnson had five catches for 49 yards and a touchdown against San Francisco’s defense, and McBride will look to take advantage of that same matchup.
Top Value: Tyler Warren at Tennessee Titans – $4,400 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
Warren has gotten off to a fantastic start to his rookie year, and he trails only McBride in projected Plus/Minus in this week’s matchup against the Titans.
Warren’s Colts are 2-0 after beating the Dolphins and Broncos, and they’ll look to stay undefeated as they go on the road to take on the Titans in a divisional matchup. The Titans have given up five catches to opposing tight ends in each of their two games this season, with a total of 77 receiving yards and a touchdown against them from the position.
After rotating tight ends the last few years, they’ve given the job to Warren almost entirely. He played 73% of snaps in Week 1 and was even more involved by playing 93% of snaps in Week 2. He produced over 75 receiving yards in each contest, catching seven of his nine targets in Week 1 and four of seven targets in Week 2.
While the rookie hasn’t found the end zone yet, his heavy involvement gives him a high ceiling at this mid-range salary in Week 3 against the Titans.
Pictured: Rome Odunze
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
