NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (January 26) for Bills vs. Chiefs

We are nearing the conclusion of the NFL season. While that is a bit of a sad sentiment, it does mean that we should get some absolute bangers over the final few games. That includes the AFC Championship game Sunday night. The Buffalo Bills will travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs, who are currently listed as 1.5-point home favorites. The total sits at 48.5 points.

These two teams have met in three of the past four postseasons, so there is plenty of history between them. They played one of the most exciting playoff games in history back in 2022, but the Bills have been unable to get over the hump against the Chiefs when it has mattered. Josh Allen is 4-1 against Patrick Mahomes in the regular season, but he’s winless in their three postseason matchups.

Will this be the year that the Bills finally get over the hump, or will the Chiefs look to continue their dynastic run with another trip to the Super Bowl? Let’s dive into all the DFS options.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

While the Chiefs are the favorites and posted the better record during the regular season, the Bills stand out as the superior fantasy squad. They were the more efficient offense this season, and they have more high-end fantasy talent.

That starts with Allen at quarterback. He turned in one of the best seasons of his career from an efficiency standpoint, and he still provided plenty of volume. He eclipsed 40 total touchdowns for the fifth straight season, resulting in a second-team All-Pro nod. If not for a historically good season from Lamar Jackson, Allen would likely be taking home the first MVP award of his career.

For fantasy purposes, only Jackson averaged more fantasy points per game than Allen this season. He combines an elite floor with arguably the highest ceiling in the entire league. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 11 of his past 13 games, and he just narrowly missed out last week vs. the Ravens. Allen also has seven games with more than 24 DraftKings points in that stretch, including two with more than 40. That includes the best fantasy performance by a quarterback in NFL history, racking up 54.88 DraftKings points vs. the Rams on 342 passing yards, 84 rushing yards, and six total touchdowns.

Despite Allen’s inability to get past the Chiefs in the postseason, it hasn’t stopped him from posting huge fantasy numbers in those matchups. In his eight career games vs. Kansas City, he’s averaged an elite 28.92 DraftKings points per game. In their three postseason outings, he’s gone for 30.64, 40.96, and 27.28 DraftKings points (per the Trends tool).

There’s no reason to expect much to change this go around. The Chiefs have taken a step back against the pass this season, dipping from No. 3 in pass defense EPA in 2023 to No. 15 in 2024. They’ve allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, so it’s a matchup where Allen can find success.

Finally, Allen has historically done some of his best work as an underdog. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Allen has taken the field as an underdog 18 times (including playoffs). He’s averaged more than 28.3 DraftKings points per game in that split, good for an average Plus/Minus of +4.35.

Add it all up, and he’s one of the clear top options on this slate. He’s first among all players in median and ceiling projections, and he’s No. 2 in projected Plus/Minus.

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Mahomes is the only player that can really rival Allen in this matchup. If you look just at his regular season numbers, he doesn’t really have the upside to rival Allen. He had a very mediocre year by his lofty standards, cracking 20 DraftKings points in just four of 16 games. He followed that up with just 12.48 DraftKings points in his first playoff outing, so it’s tough to make the case that he’s in the same weight class as Allen for fantasy purposes.

Of course, Mahomes’ track record tells a different story. There’s a reason that he’s the unquestioned best player in football, regardless of what his numbers say. He has a track record for coming through in the biggest situations, which is why he has three rings and three Super Bowl MVPs in just six seasons.

Mahomes has struggled in his past two games vs. the Bills, failing to crack 20 DraftKings points in each, but he’s still averaged 23.71 DraftKings points in this matchup historically. He also tends to run a bit more during the playoffs than the regular season, which increases his ceiling for fantasy purposes. At a slightly cheaper salary, he grades out as the better pure value at quarterback on this slate, leading all players in projected Plus/Minus.

James Cook is the other stud option on this slate, but it’s hard to get excited about him at his current price tag. Cook has scored a ton of touchdowns this season, as he has 19 in his 18 games played, but he failed to find the end zone last week vs. the Ravens. When that happens, it’s extremely difficult for him to return value. He doesn’t operate as a true bell-cow back, so he doesn’t get the same volume as most of the other top running backs in fantasy.

Cook is going to have to navigate a tough set of circumstances this week. Not only is he an underdog, but the Chiefs have been massively improved against the run this season. Their run defense has been their Achilles heel for the past few years, but they were No. 11 in rush defense EPA this season. Overall, no team allowed fewer fantasy points per game to the position.

Cook managed just 25 scrimmage yards in his first matchup vs. the Chiefs this season, though he made up for it with two touchdowns. Still, the fact that he failed to crack 20 DraftKings points with multiple scores is a red flag. He grades out poorly in our NFL Models and doesn’t correlate well with his stud quarterback (-0.12). With Allen and Mahomes standing out as the top two options on the slate, it’s hard to make the case for pairing one or both with Cook.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Travis Kelce isn’t priced like a stud on this slate, but he probably should be. Kelce has slowed down a bit in the regular season over the past few years. He still managed 97 grabs, 823 yards, and three touchdowns this season, but that pales in comparison to what he was producing in his prime.

However, Kelce is still very capable of turning it on during the playoffs. We saw that last year, averaging eight receptions and 88.75 yards with three touchdowns in four games, and he had more than 100 yards and a score in his first playoff outing this season. Ultimately, we have to approach him like a different player once the games start to matter for Kansas City.

The fact that he was so dominant last week despite a subpar outing from Mahomes is extremely encouraging for his prospects moving forward. His 35% target share vs. the Texans was tied for his third-highest mark of the year, and his 43% air-yards share was his best mark of the season.

Ultimately, “playoff Kelce” is a $10k+ player that we can get at a slight discount this week. He stands out as the best non-QB on this slate.

Both of these teams use a “committee” approach at receiver, which can make deciphering the position difficult on a week-to-week basis. However, Khalil Shakir has established himself as the Bills’ clear No. 1 pass-catcher. He’s been targeted on 26% of his routes run for the year, and that figure was up to 39% last week vs. the Ravens.

Unfortunately, most of Shakir’s targets come around the line of scrimmage. He has just a 15% air yards share for the year, which keeps his upside pretty modest for this price range. He still has the potential to provide value, but his odds of a true ceiling game are slimmer than you might expect.

Xavier Worthy stands out as the Chiefs’ No. 1 wide receiver. His target share hasn’t been quite as consistent as Shakir’s for the Bills, but he was the only Chiefs receiver with more than two targets last week.

He’s also seen his role expand as the year has progressed. His route participation was up to 88% in his first playoff outing, and he’s posted a target share of at least 26% in three of his past four games. Like Shakir, most of his work tends to come around the line of scrimmage, but he has the game-changing speed to make the most of any touch. We haven’t seen a ton of that recently, but his 4.21 speed makes him a threat to take any play to the house.

The Chiefs running back situation is murky at the moment. Isiah Pacheco was operating as the team’s top option to start the year, but an injury forced him to miss an extended period. In his absence, the team signed Kareem Hunt, who filled in admirably. Hunt hasn’t been particularly efficient, averaging just 3.6 yards per attempt, but he’s been able to hold down the fort.

Pacheco has since returned to the lineup, but he’s been unable to seize back control of the backfield. Part of that stems from his production. He doesn’t look like nearly the same player, averaging fewer than four yards per carry in each of his five starts.

Ultimately, Hunt stands out as the guy to own in Kansas City. The two players are splitting the early-down work pretty evenly, but Hunt has gotten the majority of the scoring opportunities of late. He’s had 100% of the inside-the-five carries in their past three outings, so he’s much more likely to find the paint vs. the Bills. Neither player stands out as a particularly strong option, but Hunt clearly has more upside.

If you are going to buy low on Pacheco, you’re better off doing so on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $8,000 on that site, resulting in a slate-high 88% Bargain Rating.

DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown round out the Chiefs’ receiving corps. Both players have provided fantasy value in previous years, but they’ve struggled to produce consistently with the Chiefs this season. Brown has missed all but three games due to injury, while Hopkins has been limited to part-time duty.

However, there is some buy-low appeal with Brown at $5,600. He was a frequent target for Mahomes during their two regular-season contests, earning a target on 44% of his routes run. His route rate climbed to 72% in their first playoff matchup, so he was the Chiefs’ clear No. 2 receiver from an opportunity standpoint. The targets weren’t there for Brown last week, but he did rack up 41% of the team’s air yards. There are multiple ways for him to increase his production moving forward, so he’s a player I’m definitely buying at the moment.

It’s much harder to get excited about Hopkins. His route rate dipped last week, checking in at just 41% vs. the Texans. He had just one target and minimal air yards, so his role appears to be shrinking. He likely needs a touchdown to return value at his current salary.

Amari Cooper feels pretty similar to Hopkins on the surface. Both players are aging receivers who have struggled to break through for their new teams. Ultimately, Cooper has just a 42% route participation during the Bills’ two postseason contests, and he’s racked up just a 9% target share. It’s possible that he’s cooked, and with the sheer volume of options in the Bills’ passing attack, he’s not someone I’m interested in targeting Sunday.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

  • Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Bills defense stands out as the most undervalued of the bunch using Sim Labs, with their projected ownership checking in 2.9% below their optimal lineup rate.
  • Keon Coleman ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Coleman was second among the Bills’ receivers in routes last week, checking in at 61%. That didn’t lead to a ton of targets, but he could be a bigger factor this week vs. the Chiefs. He’s been targeted on 17% of his routes run for the year, which is a passable figure.
  • Dalton Kincaid ($3,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Kincaid has been the Bills’ No. 2 receiving threat for most of the year, earning a target on 25% of his routes run. Unfortunately, his routes were slashed to just 48% last week. That’s a concern, but his track record suggests this is too cheap of a price tag.
  • Ty Johnson ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Johnson has served as the Bills’ pass-catching back this season while splitting the backup duties with Ray Davis. He’s played on 40% of the team’s snaps in their two playoff contests, which is enough to warrant consideration.
  • Curtis Samuel ($3,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Samuel has been a nonfactor for the Bills for most of the season, but he caught a long touchdown in the Wild Card round vs. the Broncos. He had a 43% route participation and 10% target share last week, so he’s doing just enough to stay relevant.
  • Mack Hollins ($2,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Hollins has been one of the Bills’ top receivers from a route standpoint for most of the year, but that’s due primarily to his blocking ability. He hasn’t been a huge threat as a pass-catcher, and his routes dipped a bit last week.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Smith-Schuster is, at best, the No. 5 option in the Chiefs’ passing attack. However, he was on the field for 41% of the team’s pass plays last week.
  • Noah Gray ($2,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Gray has been a solid value for much of the year, and he’s a legit threat around the goal line. He had more receiving touchdowns than Kelce this season, so he’s always capable of getting in the paint.
  • Dawson Knox ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Kincaid’s reduction in snaps was a benefit for Knox last week. His route participation was up compared to his regular-season average, and he’s posted a target share of at least 10% in both playoff contests.
  • Samaje Perine ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Perine doesn’t do much on early downs, but he’s the Chiefs’ primary back in pass-catching situations. That could give him some appeal if you think they’re going to be playing from behind.

We are nearing the conclusion of the NFL season. While that is a bit of a sad sentiment, it does mean that we should get some absolute bangers over the final few games. That includes the AFC Championship game Sunday night. The Buffalo Bills will travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs, who are currently listed as 1.5-point home favorites. The total sits at 48.5 points.

These two teams have met in three of the past four postseasons, so there is plenty of history between them. They played one of the most exciting playoff games in history back in 2022, but the Bills have been unable to get over the hump against the Chiefs when it has mattered. Josh Allen is 4-1 against Patrick Mahomes in the regular season, but he’s winless in their three postseason matchups.

Will this be the year that the Bills finally get over the hump, or will the Chiefs look to continue their dynastic run with another trip to the Super Bowl? Let’s dive into all the DFS options.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

While the Chiefs are the favorites and posted the better record during the regular season, the Bills stand out as the superior fantasy squad. They were the more efficient offense this season, and they have more high-end fantasy talent.

That starts with Allen at quarterback. He turned in one of the best seasons of his career from an efficiency standpoint, and he still provided plenty of volume. He eclipsed 40 total touchdowns for the fifth straight season, resulting in a second-team All-Pro nod. If not for a historically good season from Lamar Jackson, Allen would likely be taking home the first MVP award of his career.

For fantasy purposes, only Jackson averaged more fantasy points per game than Allen this season. He combines an elite floor with arguably the highest ceiling in the entire league. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 11 of his past 13 games, and he just narrowly missed out last week vs. the Ravens. Allen also has seven games with more than 24 DraftKings points in that stretch, including two with more than 40. That includes the best fantasy performance by a quarterback in NFL history, racking up 54.88 DraftKings points vs. the Rams on 342 passing yards, 84 rushing yards, and six total touchdowns.

Despite Allen’s inability to get past the Chiefs in the postseason, it hasn’t stopped him from posting huge fantasy numbers in those matchups. In his eight career games vs. Kansas City, he’s averaged an elite 28.92 DraftKings points per game. In their three postseason outings, he’s gone for 30.64, 40.96, and 27.28 DraftKings points (per the Trends tool).

There’s no reason to expect much to change this go around. The Chiefs have taken a step back against the pass this season, dipping from No. 3 in pass defense EPA in 2023 to No. 15 in 2024. They’ve allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, so it’s a matchup where Allen can find success.

Finally, Allen has historically done some of his best work as an underdog. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Allen has taken the field as an underdog 18 times (including playoffs). He’s averaged more than 28.3 DraftKings points per game in that split, good for an average Plus/Minus of +4.35.

Add it all up, and he’s one of the clear top options on this slate. He’s first among all players in median and ceiling projections, and he’s No. 2 in projected Plus/Minus.

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Mahomes is the only player that can really rival Allen in this matchup. If you look just at his regular season numbers, he doesn’t really have the upside to rival Allen. He had a very mediocre year by his lofty standards, cracking 20 DraftKings points in just four of 16 games. He followed that up with just 12.48 DraftKings points in his first playoff outing, so it’s tough to make the case that he’s in the same weight class as Allen for fantasy purposes.

Of course, Mahomes’ track record tells a different story. There’s a reason that he’s the unquestioned best player in football, regardless of what his numbers say. He has a track record for coming through in the biggest situations, which is why he has three rings and three Super Bowl MVPs in just six seasons.

Mahomes has struggled in his past two games vs. the Bills, failing to crack 20 DraftKings points in each, but he’s still averaged 23.71 DraftKings points in this matchup historically. He also tends to run a bit more during the playoffs than the regular season, which increases his ceiling for fantasy purposes. At a slightly cheaper salary, he grades out as the better pure value at quarterback on this slate, leading all players in projected Plus/Minus.

James Cook is the other stud option on this slate, but it’s hard to get excited about him at his current price tag. Cook has scored a ton of touchdowns this season, as he has 19 in his 18 games played, but he failed to find the end zone last week vs. the Ravens. When that happens, it’s extremely difficult for him to return value. He doesn’t operate as a true bell-cow back, so he doesn’t get the same volume as most of the other top running backs in fantasy.

Cook is going to have to navigate a tough set of circumstances this week. Not only is he an underdog, but the Chiefs have been massively improved against the run this season. Their run defense has been their Achilles heel for the past few years, but they were No. 11 in rush defense EPA this season. Overall, no team allowed fewer fantasy points per game to the position.

Cook managed just 25 scrimmage yards in his first matchup vs. the Chiefs this season, though he made up for it with two touchdowns. Still, the fact that he failed to crack 20 DraftKings points with multiple scores is a red flag. He grades out poorly in our NFL Models and doesn’t correlate well with his stud quarterback (-0.12). With Allen and Mahomes standing out as the top two options on the slate, it’s hard to make the case for pairing one or both with Cook.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Travis Kelce isn’t priced like a stud on this slate, but he probably should be. Kelce has slowed down a bit in the regular season over the past few years. He still managed 97 grabs, 823 yards, and three touchdowns this season, but that pales in comparison to what he was producing in his prime.

However, Kelce is still very capable of turning it on during the playoffs. We saw that last year, averaging eight receptions and 88.75 yards with three touchdowns in four games, and he had more than 100 yards and a score in his first playoff outing this season. Ultimately, we have to approach him like a different player once the games start to matter for Kansas City.

The fact that he was so dominant last week despite a subpar outing from Mahomes is extremely encouraging for his prospects moving forward. His 35% target share vs. the Texans was tied for his third-highest mark of the year, and his 43% air-yards share was his best mark of the season.

Ultimately, “playoff Kelce” is a $10k+ player that we can get at a slight discount this week. He stands out as the best non-QB on this slate.

Both of these teams use a “committee” approach at receiver, which can make deciphering the position difficult on a week-to-week basis. However, Khalil Shakir has established himself as the Bills’ clear No. 1 pass-catcher. He’s been targeted on 26% of his routes run for the year, and that figure was up to 39% last week vs. the Ravens.

Unfortunately, most of Shakir’s targets come around the line of scrimmage. He has just a 15% air yards share for the year, which keeps his upside pretty modest for this price range. He still has the potential to provide value, but his odds of a true ceiling game are slimmer than you might expect.

Xavier Worthy stands out as the Chiefs’ No. 1 wide receiver. His target share hasn’t been quite as consistent as Shakir’s for the Bills, but he was the only Chiefs receiver with more than two targets last week.

He’s also seen his role expand as the year has progressed. His route participation was up to 88% in his first playoff outing, and he’s posted a target share of at least 26% in three of his past four games. Like Shakir, most of his work tends to come around the line of scrimmage, but he has the game-changing speed to make the most of any touch. We haven’t seen a ton of that recently, but his 4.21 speed makes him a threat to take any play to the house.

The Chiefs running back situation is murky at the moment. Isiah Pacheco was operating as the team’s top option to start the year, but an injury forced him to miss an extended period. In his absence, the team signed Kareem Hunt, who filled in admirably. Hunt hasn’t been particularly efficient, averaging just 3.6 yards per attempt, but he’s been able to hold down the fort.

Pacheco has since returned to the lineup, but he’s been unable to seize back control of the backfield. Part of that stems from his production. He doesn’t look like nearly the same player, averaging fewer than four yards per carry in each of his five starts.

Ultimately, Hunt stands out as the guy to own in Kansas City. The two players are splitting the early-down work pretty evenly, but Hunt has gotten the majority of the scoring opportunities of late. He’s had 100% of the inside-the-five carries in their past three outings, so he’s much more likely to find the paint vs. the Bills. Neither player stands out as a particularly strong option, but Hunt clearly has more upside.

If you are going to buy low on Pacheco, you’re better off doing so on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $8,000 on that site, resulting in a slate-high 88% Bargain Rating.

DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown round out the Chiefs’ receiving corps. Both players have provided fantasy value in previous years, but they’ve struggled to produce consistently with the Chiefs this season. Brown has missed all but three games due to injury, while Hopkins has been limited to part-time duty.

However, there is some buy-low appeal with Brown at $5,600. He was a frequent target for Mahomes during their two regular-season contests, earning a target on 44% of his routes run. His route rate climbed to 72% in their first playoff matchup, so he was the Chiefs’ clear No. 2 receiver from an opportunity standpoint. The targets weren’t there for Brown last week, but he did rack up 41% of the team’s air yards. There are multiple ways for him to increase his production moving forward, so he’s a player I’m definitely buying at the moment.

It’s much harder to get excited about Hopkins. His route rate dipped last week, checking in at just 41% vs. the Texans. He had just one target and minimal air yards, so his role appears to be shrinking. He likely needs a touchdown to return value at his current salary.

Amari Cooper feels pretty similar to Hopkins on the surface. Both players are aging receivers who have struggled to break through for their new teams. Ultimately, Cooper has just a 42% route participation during the Bills’ two postseason contests, and he’s racked up just a 9% target share. It’s possible that he’s cooked, and with the sheer volume of options in the Bills’ passing attack, he’s not someone I’m interested in targeting Sunday.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

  • Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Bills defense stands out as the most undervalued of the bunch using Sim Labs, with their projected ownership checking in 2.9% below their optimal lineup rate.
  • Keon Coleman ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Coleman was second among the Bills’ receivers in routes last week, checking in at 61%. That didn’t lead to a ton of targets, but he could be a bigger factor this week vs. the Chiefs. He’s been targeted on 17% of his routes run for the year, which is a passable figure.
  • Dalton Kincaid ($3,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Kincaid has been the Bills’ No. 2 receiving threat for most of the year, earning a target on 25% of his routes run. Unfortunately, his routes were slashed to just 48% last week. That’s a concern, but his track record suggests this is too cheap of a price tag.
  • Ty Johnson ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Johnson has served as the Bills’ pass-catching back this season while splitting the backup duties with Ray Davis. He’s played on 40% of the team’s snaps in their two playoff contests, which is enough to warrant consideration.
  • Curtis Samuel ($3,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Samuel has been a nonfactor for the Bills for most of the season, but he caught a long touchdown in the Wild Card round vs. the Broncos. He had a 43% route participation and 10% target share last week, so he’s doing just enough to stay relevant.
  • Mack Hollins ($2,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Hollins has been one of the Bills’ top receivers from a route standpoint for most of the year, but that’s due primarily to his blocking ability. He hasn’t been a huge threat as a pass-catcher, and his routes dipped a bit last week.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Smith-Schuster is, at best, the No. 5 option in the Chiefs’ passing attack. However, he was on the field for 41% of the team’s pass plays last week.
  • Noah Gray ($2,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Gray has been a solid value for much of the year, and he’s a legit threat around the goal line. He had more receiving touchdowns than Kelce this season, so he’s always capable of getting in the paint.
  • Dawson Knox ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Kincaid’s reduction in snaps was a benefit for Knox last week. His route participation was up compared to his regular-season average, and he’s posted a target share of at least 10% in both playoff contests.
  • Samaje Perine ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Perine doesn’t do much on early downs, but he’s the Chiefs’ primary back in pass-catching situations. That could give him some appeal if you think they’re going to be playing from behind.