In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 2 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening).
- Kyler Murray (1st)
- Justin Herbert (7th)
- Josh Allen (5th)
- Teddy Bridgewater (14th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks with week-winning upside and some value plays for the cash game players out there.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday.
- Tight Ends on Thursday.
- Running Backs on Friday.
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,700 Fanduel) Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) vs Minnesota Vikings (51 total)
Kyler was phenomenal in Week 1, accounting for five total touchdowns (four through the air and one on the ground). With improvements to his receiving core and his rock-solid rushing floor, he looks to be an every-week option in DFS this season.
He’ll be at home this week, taking on a Vikings team in a game with a 51 point total. Kyler has been absolutely ridiculous in this situation so far in his career, per our Trends tool:
It’s happened only four times, but he’s hit salary-based expectations in each of them. He’s also averaged over 32 DraftKings points per game.
Minnesota has a middling secondary that allowed Joe Burrow to throw for 9.7 yards per attempt last week. Kyler should take it to the air quite often as he attempted at least 30 passes in all but one game last season. You do the math on 30+ attempts and 9.7 yards per target… it looks pretty good to me.
The only potential knock on Murray (and the Cardinals in general) is the pacing this week. The Cardinals have been the fastest-paced team by nearly every metric since Kliff Kingsbury came to town. The Vikings, however, were 26th in situation-neutral pace last season.
Their preference is to slow the game down and grind out the clock. The likeliest scenario is Arizona getting on the board early and making that game plan impractical, but it’s still worth considering.
Murray is a better price-sensitive play on FanDuel, where he has a 99th percentile Bargain Rating, but our projections have him as the top-scoring player on both sites, regardless of position.
Justin Herbert ($6,700 DraftKings $7,600 FanDuel) Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (55) total
Fantasy football is a game of volume. Justin Herbert provided plenty of it last week, dropping back 47 times against Washington. This week, instead of facing an elite defensive line and last year’s second-best team against the pass, he faces the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense is… not that. Herbert and the Chargers have a 29-point team total for a reason.
In six games last season with an implied team total of at least 25, Herbert has shined. He averages over 28 DraftKings points and went over 35 twice. He has a talented group of weapons to throw to and is facing quite possibly the easiest quarterback matchup in the league this season. The Cowboys should be putting up points too, which should keep Herbert busy and stop the Chargers from running out the clock.
This game also sets up well for stacking. Over half of Herbert’s pass attempts were shared between Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. This offensive concentration is a good thing, and having a similar situation across the field is a great one since it’s easy to find a Dallas player to bring it back with. Our Stacks tool in the Lineup Builder has Herbert/Williams/Allen as the second-best stack by Pts/Sal.
This week, Herbert is the only quarterback to top at least one of our Pro Models on DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the best Pts/Sal value on both sites. He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel, where he has an 82% Bargain Rating.
Josh Allen ($7,200 DraftKings $8,100 FanDuel) Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins (48 total)
Allen disappointed in Week 1, scoring under 20 DraftKings points. This was the first time he’d scored under 20 in the regular season since the last time he played the Steelers. Wonder if there’s something to that?
Fortunately for him, he’s taking on a Dolphins team against which he’s fared much better:
For what it’s worth, he’s done better when those games are in Miami, averaging 35 fantasy points there. Either way, this week lines up nicely for Allen. Miami’s defense is good, but nowhere near what he faced last week. They’ve also struggled against the rush (relatively), which ironically may benefit Allen. His best performances have all come when he’s scored on the ground.
If he’s able to marry last week’s volume (51 passing attempts, nine rushes) with his usual efficiency (7.9 yards per attempt last season), he’s in for a big day. We have him projected as second only to Murray in Median Projection across both sites, while he provides the highest floor. His 82% Bargain Rating makes him a better deal on FanDuel, where he’s the top-rated quarterback in the Koerner model.
Teddy Bridgewater ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) Denver Broncos (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (45.5 total)
Teddy touchdown is a DraftKings only playy this week, where he leads all quarterbacks in Bargain Rating.
Note: Quarterbacks are usually better values on FanDuel due to their pricing. We only have five quarterbacks as “bargains” on DraftKings this week.
While the loss of Jerry Jeudy hurts, he still has talented weapons around him, with 2020 second-round pick KJ Hamler ready to step up in Jeudy’s place. He draws a matchup against a Jaguars team that was 31st against the pass (by DVOA) last season. This year doesn’t look any better; they got torched for 37 points by the Texans last week.
The best-case scenario for Teddy is the Jags offense clicking as well, which would keep the Broncos aggressive. Despite leading most of the way, he still attempted 36 passes in his first start with the Broncos, so the volume shouldn’t be terrible either way.
While he doesn’t provide nearly the ceiling of our other top-rated quarterbacks, he doesn’t need to at his salary on DraftKings. We have him tied with Herbert for the lead in Pts/Sal, and he allows you a lot of room to pay up at other positions.
Quarterbacks with Week-Winning Upside
Tom Brady ($6,900 DraftKings $8,200 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12) vs. Atlanta Falcons (52 total)
Brady’s Bucs team has a slate-high 32-point implied total. Given their anemic rushing attack (28th in rushing yards last season, 52 yards rushing Week 1), this implies a lot of Brady. They’re facing a Falcons team that made Jalen Hurts look like Brady last week, and it’s probably safe to say that Brady is the better player.
He also has better weaponry, with the league’s best receiving group. We need Atlanta to be better on offense for Brady to really blow this slate up, but he has our highest Ceiling Projection on both sites.
Dak Prescott ($6,800 DraftKings $8,000 FanDuel) Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers (55 total)
The counterpart to Herbert mentioned above, Dak looked fully healthy in week one, going for over 30 DraftKings points. This game has the main slates highest vegas total, so there should be points on both sides. I do expect the Cowboys to get more out of Zeke this week than they did in Week 1, but it should still be the Dak show.
Dak averaged 27 DraftKings points in 12 career games with a total of at least 51. I actually prefer playing Dak even though Michael Gallup is on IR. It further concentrates the targets on to just two players, which makes for better stacking.
While it could lower his overall scoring, the narrow distribution makes for a strategic edge.
Russell Wilson ($7,500 DraftKings $8,500 FanDuel) Seattle seahawks (-5) vs Tennesse Titans (53.5 total)
It doesn’t appear we’ll get to see Russ cook this year as he only had 23 attempts last week. Regardless, Russ continued his insane efficiency, completing 78% of his passes at an insane 11 yards per attempt. Even if that regresses a bit, he should get more chances against the Titans.
They played at the fourth-fastest pace last year, which means more snaps to go around. If the Titans can be more effective on offense than the Colts were last week, Russ should also get to throw on a greater percentage of those snaps, which seems likely since this game has the second-highest total on the slate.
Matthew Stafford ($6,400 DraftKings $7,500 FanDuel) Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Indianapolis Colts (47.5)
In his first game as a Ram, Stafford threw for 320 yards and three touchdowns on only 26 attempts. With a potent combination of weapons and PFF’s eighth-best offensive line, Stafford and the Rams should have one of the league’s best passing attacks all season.
The biggest factor holding him back will be his team’s defense. It’s going to be hard to put up big fantasy numbers on only 26 dropbacks. His .94 fantasy points per attempt is unsustainable, but the Colts offense should challenge the Rams a bit more in this one, giving Stafford a few more chances.