The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. New York Jets – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
With so many games spread throughout the week, Sunday’s main slate on DraftKings has only eight games, while FanDuel includes Sunday Night Football to get to nine games. Even with smaller player pools, there are still big stars to choose from, and Josh Allen leads the way with the highest ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel using an evenly-blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and THE BLITZ.
Allen and the Bills host the Jets in a rematch of their Week 6 win in which Allen had 24.4 DraftKings points on 215 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and a rushing touchdown. On the season, he has 26 passing touchdowns, 11 rushing touchdowns and an average of 236.6 passing yards per game.
Even though he’s a pricey play, he is worth considering due to his high ceiling. Allen posted back-to-back monster games with 54.88 and 44.28 DraftKings points in back-to-back games against the Rams and Lions. He slowed down with just 12.16 DraftKings points last week against the Patriots and did not have a rushing score for the first time since Week 9. He suffered an elbow contusion in that game but has put in full practice and should be ready to roll this week.
Allen should be able to get back on track against the Jets, and the Bills can lock up the No. 2 seed with a victory, giving them a chance to rest Allen and the other starters next week if they choose to.
Top Value: Sam Darnold vs. Green Bay Packers – $6,400 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
In the aggregated projections, Darnold brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has been a regularly recurring character as a value QB this season, and the projections indicate he’s in a good spot at home this week against the Packers. He appears to be overlooked as well, bringing 70% Leverage on FanDuel and 68% leverage on on DraftKings.
Darnold led the Vikings to a big road win in Seattle last week, throwing for 246 yards and three touchdowns. He has multiple passing scores in seven of his last nine games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Packers will be a tough challenge since they have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, but Darnold has been especially good at home, averaging 19.9 DraftKings points per game, and he managed 22.5 DraftKings points while leading the Vikings to a win over the Packers in Green Bay back in Week 4.
Minnesota is trying to stay alive for the top seed in the NFC, and they’ll need to pick up another big win at home against Green Bay to put pressure on the Lions in San Francisco on Monday night. This NFC North battle will be the focus of the late window, and it could turn into a high-scoring back-and-forth game, giving Darnold the chance to bring elite value. It has the second-highest over/under on Sunday’s main slate.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Saquon Barkley vs. Dallas Cowboys – $8,600 on DraftKings, $9,600 on FanDuel
Barkley’s impressive first season with the Eagles continues this week with a home matchup against the Cowboys. He may be without QB Jalen Hurts, who left last week’s game with a concussion and hasn’t been able to clear the NFL Concussion Protocol yet. Barkley has the highest ceiling projection at running back on both DraftKings and FanDuel by a wide margin in the aggregate projection and ranks eighth in Projected Plus/Minus as well, even though he’s so expensive.
If Hurts is replaced by Kenny Pickett, Barkley could get a much heavier workload as even more of the focus of the offense. However, the defense will also focus on him, so it could work for or against him. Barkley ran for 150 yards, two touchdowns, and 30 DraftKings points against the Commanders last week, with most of that production coming after Hurts departed.
The two scores gave him six multi-touchdown games this season and he’s up to a career-high 13 rushing scores this season. He needs 162 rushing yards to reach 2,000 for the first time in his career, and he has a good shot to get to that level if he handles his normal work the next two weeks.
Running backs have feasted against the Cowboys this season, scoring 17 touchdowns in 15 games and averaging 94 rushing yards and 41.1 receiving yards per game. Barkley had 66 rushing yards and a touchdown against them in Week 10, and he’ll look to have an even bigger game this time around. Without Hurts vulturing touchdowns, he has even more upside than usual this week as a pay-up stud to build around.
Top Value: Chuba Hubbard at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,000 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
While he isn’t a bargain, Hubbard is set up to return excellent value at his mid-range salary against the Buccaneers in this NFC South matchup. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at running back in aggregate projections on FanDuel and the second-most on DraftKings behind only Aaron Jones. Jones is a little cheaper while Kendre Miller and Jerome Ford also show well as cheaper value plays, although they don’t come close to matchup Hubbard’s ceiling.
Hubbard has the second-highest ceiling projection of all running backs, behind only Barkley on DraftKings. He has taken over as the Panthers’ workhorse running back since the injuries to Miles Sanders and Jonathon Brooks and should carry a heavy workload against the Bucs this week.
Last week against Arizona, Hubbard had 25 carries for 152 yards and two touchdowns, including the walk-off winner. He added four catches for the third straight week as well, giving him both a higher ceiling and a higher floor with his elevated role as a receiver.
In his first matchup against Tampa Bay back in Week 13, Hubbard only managed 3.3 DraftKings points while sharing time with Brooks, but he should be able to do much better this week. Running backs have 11 touchdowns against the Bucs this season, but they have only scored once in the past four weeks.
Even though it’s a tough matchup, the Panthers offense has shown enough improvement to make Hubbard a good play at this price in our projections.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Tennesse Titans – $6,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
While Justin Jefferson has the highest ceiling projection on the main slate in the aggregate projections, rookie Brian Thomas Jr. isn’t far behind him and comes much cheaper on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s projected to be very chalky, but he has shown enough upside to still be a strong play to consider in a favorable matchup against the Titans.
Thomas has clearly emerged as the Jags’ top pass-catcher, with injuries sidelining Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram for the rest of the season. Thomas has double-digit targets in each of the past four weeks and has scored four touchdowns during that span while averaging 7.8 catches for 99.8 receiving yards per week. He’s clearly become the go-to for Mac Jones ($5,200), who has attempted 30+ passes in each of the last four weeks.
In each of the last two weeks, Thomas has posted over 30 DraftKings points, and the previous week, he had eight catches for 86 yards against the Titans, who he’ll face in a rematch this week. The Titans have been good against receivers this season, but they have allowed seven wide receiver touchdowns in the last seven weeks and 100+ yards to the position in every game during that stretch.
Playing Thomas at his salary is a great way to get an elite receiver at a mid-range salary, which opens up lots of options in other spots. Even if you build around a Darnold-Jefferson stack, Thomas can help fill in the other spots with his affordability and upside.
Top Value: Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Indianapolis Colts – $4,400 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
The Giants and Colts have both had disappointing seasons and have key players uncertain for Sunday’s matchup. Malik Nabers (toe) and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (ankle) are both battling injuries, and if either or both are sidelined, it could open up more work for Robinson, who has proven he can be a good value even with those other playmakers active.
Robinson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of receivers under $6,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and that is with Nabers in the projections expected to draw his usual high number of targets. If Nabers is limited or out, Robinson will have even more upside in this favorable matchup.
Robinson has stealthily averaged 10.0 DraftKings points per game this season while catching 78 passes for 585 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He has at least four catches and at least nine targets in each of his last three games and posted 62 yards and 13.2 DraftKings points in last week’s ugly road loss to the Falcons. His seven catches in that contest were his best showing since Week 4 when Daniel Jones was still at QB.
If Tracy or Nabers is out, that could result in even more targets for Robinson, who usually makes his biggest impact on short routes and high target volume. He gets a good matchup against the Colts since wide receivers have scored 12 touchdowns and averaged 144.3 yards against Indy this season.
Robinson’s stable role and connection with Drew Lock make him relatively low-risk.
Other receiver values that pop in our projections include Jakobi Meyers, Adam Thielen, Kahlil Shakir, and Tre Tucker.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Brock Bowers at New Orleans Saints- $6,700 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
No other tight end is within five points of Bowers’ ceiling projection on either DraftKings or FanDuel in the aggregate projections for this week, and he brings the highest median and floor projection on each site as well. If you have the salary to pay up for a tight end, Bowers is the way to go in his matchup in New Orleans against the Saints.
Bowers has had an outstanding rookie year despite the Raiders’ struggles overall. He has 101 catches for 1,067 yards and four touchdowns in his 15 games. The rookie definitely got a boost from Aiden O’Connell’s return last week, hauling in 11-of-13 targets for 99 yards and 20.9 DraftKings points. He has over 20 DraftKings points in two of his last three games with O’Connell at QB with double-digit targets in four of his last six games overall.
The Raiders-Saints matchup doesn’t have a ton of apparent great fantasy options, but it will be one of the few games on Sunday that’s weather-free since they’ll be inside the Superdome. Bowers is back in SEC territory where he starred at Georgia over the last few seasons, and he’s in a smash matchup against the Saints, who rank 28th in the NFL in DVOA versus opposing tight ends.
If you have the salary, he’s clearly the top tight end option in play on Sunday afternoon, and he also has the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position despite his lofty salary.
Top Value: Jake Ferguson at Philadelphia Eagles – $3,700 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
Ferguson has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end on DraftKings behind only Bowers. He should be in a position to get extra work this week with CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) shut down for the rest of the season. Brandin Cooks and KaVontae Turpin should get more targets at receiver, but Ferguson has already shown a strong connection with Cooper Rush.
Last week, Ferguson caught six passes on nine targets for 40 yards and 10 DraftKings points. It was his most targets since Week 9 and showed he has more potential if targets come his way.
He had four catches for 24 yards in his first matchup against the Eagles in Week 10, but Philly has been especially beatable by tight ends in the last few weeks. Tight ends have scored four touchdowns in the last four weeks against the Eagles.
