Following another thrilling NFL Draft, there has been plenty of hype about the rookies in their new landing spots. While the right rookie sleeper can be a great value, there is also a lot of risk with rookies since they have no track record at the NFL level. Getting the right rookie at a great price can make your fantasy football year, but overpaying for the wrong option in a bad spot can break your season just as fast. There’s always the risk of getting enamored with someone, just because they’re new, and end up overpaying.
Don’t get me wrong–I’m all for targeting rookies in your best ball or season-long contests. I covered my Top 3 Sleepers from Round 1 after Day 1 of the draft and my top late-round fantasy sleepers in earlier posts for FantasyLabs. However, there are a few picks that I think will have a tough time living up to their current ADP (average draft position).
Some of these players might end up being great players at some point in their careers, but they aren’t worth the risk at their current cost right now. In this post, I’ve listed my top rookies to avoid in your Best Ball Drafts along with their ADP on Underdog Fantasy as of early May.
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Fade These Rookies in Best Ball Fantasy Football
As in all fantasy formats, getting players at the right value is critical to success. The ADP (average draft position) of the players below is too high based on their realistic production expectations this year. I recommend avoiding them at their current price, but be sure to check back for updates throughout the offseason as situations and ADP evolve.
WR Malik Nabers, New York Giants (WR18, ADP 26.2)
The Giants took Nabers with the No. 6 overall pick as the second WR off the board. He’s a home-run threat and could step in right away as the team’s No. 1 WR, but taking him in the top 20 receivers is going too far, in my opinion. Nabers is a constant big-play threat and will have a few spike games, but consistency is going to be a challenge for him in his rookie season.
Around the same ADP, there are several much more proven receivers coming off the board. Stefon Diggs with his new situation as the featured receiver for C.J. Stroud is currently the receiver off the board just ahead of him. Just behind him, proven options like Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle, Cooper Kupp and Michael Pittman Jr. are much more reliable plays to count on for weekly production. Even if his big-play spikes get him into your lineup, counting on him as a regular WR2 could come with some very low valleys.
The reasons I’m not quite as high on Nabers as the other receivers going around him have little to do with him or his skill set and much more to do with his environment and the situation he landed in. The Giants haven’t had any receiver hit 1,000 yards in a season since 2018. Daniel Jones has not been a prolific passer, and he’s coming back from injury. If he struggles, Drew Locke would be next up, and he hasn’t had much success in his opportunities either.
I do think Nabers will be a good receiver in the NFL and a key piece in the Giants new-look offense without Saquon Barkley. However, I don’t think he’s worth taking nearly this high, and you’re much better off with the more proven receivers around him.
TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders (TE9, ADP 86.3)
The reasons I’m out on Bowers are similar to why I’m not loving Nabers at his ADP. If you take Bowers as a TE9, he’s your main starter for most of the season. While Sam LaPorta proved last year that rookie tight ends can make an instant impact, this situation isn’t nearly as good for Bowers.
The Raiders have major QB questions with second-year QB Aiden O’Connell set to battle veteran journeyman Gardner Minshew II in training camp for the starting role. Either option isn’t likely to turn the Raiders into a high-octane offense. Coach Antonio Pierce prefers a run-first approach and that will likely continue even with Josh Jacobs leaving for Green Bay. When the Raiders do throw, they also have true WR No. 1 Davante Adams to get the ball, so Bowers will likely be lower on the food chain. There’s even another tight end that could get more work with him in Michael Mayer, who the Raiders took in the second round in 2023.
Like with Nabers at WR, I think you can get better regular starting options with a TE pick in this ADP area. Right after Bowers, Jake Ferguson, David Njoku and T.J. Hockenson are much more consistent and safer picks. I don’t mind a flier on Bowers since he does have elite talent, but I’d avoid him as a starter.
For more best ball fantasy football insights, check out Sean Koerner’s 2024 tight end rankings.
QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (QB11, ADP 94.2)
The Bears took Williams with the No. 1 overall pick and seem to be setting him up well for success with a strong group of receivers to work with including fellow rookie Rome Odunze (WR32, 56.7). Even though I like the potential of both Williams and Odunze, I think they’re being over-drafted.
Williams is going ahead of options like Jared Goff, Brock Purdy and even Tua Tagovailoa. Those passers obviously come with their own risk factors, but Williams is a much higher-risk play than any of those picks. Even rookie QB Jayden Daniels who is going as QB16 is potentially a better option since he will likely add more rushing production.
Although Williams has all the tools to be a great NFL starter long-term, it’s unlikely that he’ll be a reliable fantasy starter from Day 1. If you end up stacking him as part of the Bears’ offense, I’m more comfortable with that, but I’d rather get him closer to QB20 even in that scenario rather than taking him as the 11th QB off the board.
RB Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals (RB28, ADP 101.9)
Benson is the top rookie RB going off the board according to his Underdog ADP, just one spot ahead of Jonathan Brooks of the Panthers. Benson was a beast in college at Florida State, but this is a less-than-ideal spot in Arizona.
The rookie will have to share carries with James Conner, who has been very good for Arizona the past few seasons, and he’ll also lose some rushing production to Kyler Murray. Benson has the raw skills to pop and have some big games, but with an uncertain role, I wouldn’t take him inside the top 30 RBs off the board.
He’s going ahead of options like Zack Moss with the Bengals, Austin Ekeler with the Commanders and Nick Chubb of the Browns, who have better upside and less risk.
WR Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers (WR65, ADP 138.5)
This one I get on one level. Pearsall could be a great fit for the 49ers system and they snagged him in the first round, so they obviously love his upside. His skill set is a solid fit for Kyle Shanahan’s system, and his speed, elite hands and toughness give him an explosive upside.
For Best Ball, though, there are better sleepers available even past WR60. With the 49ers already having Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings in place at the top of their receiver depth chart, Pearsall may have a hard time seeing the field very much this season. The rumors are that San Francisco may move on from one or more of those receivers, but the timeline for such a move is most likely after this season. If–sorry–IF, they make a trade before the season starts or even in-season, the Pearsall pick could pay off. It’s important to also consider the flip side, though, that if they don’t make a move, Pearasall will be buried on the depth chart without much action going his way.
Other sleeper receivers going after Pearsall by ADP include rookies Xavier Legette and Ja’Lynn Polk who both have much clearer paths to playing time. Other receivers with lower ADP who I’d take over Pearsall include Darnell Mooney, Adam Thielen and DeMario Douglas.
2024 Fantasy Football Season is Here
As you get ready for your upcoming fantasy football season. Stay tuned to FantasyLabs for all the rankings, sleepers and content you need to find success in a variety of formats. If you love the process of drafting your fantasy football team but don’t love the season-long management, Best Ball is the perfect format for you. In this format, entrants draft a team of players in a snake draft on best ball sites like Underdog and Drafters.
Throughout the season, there are no waivers, substitutions, or trades. Each week your top scorers at each position automatically become your starting lineup. It’s a “set it and forget it” style of play that gives you plenty of enjoyment all season long if you get the right players on your squad.
