The Week 11 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 22, at 1 p.m. ET.
In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, where players rate in our Models will change. For updates, visit the Models directly.
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Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 11 fantasy football rankings (as of Thursday afternoon).
- Keenan Allen: No. 3 (PPR) | No. 4 (Half PPR) | No. 7 (STD)
- Terry McLaurin: No. 7 (PPR) | No. 7 (Half PPR) | No. 5 (STD)
- Adam Thielen: No. 9 (PPR) | No. 9 (Half PPR) | No. 8 (STD)
- Robby Anderson: No. 10 (PPR) | No. 10 (Half PPR) | No. 10 (STD)
- Michael Gallup: No. 58 (PPR) | No. 57 (Half PPR) | No. 55 (STD)
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Keenan Allen: Los Angeles Chargers (-9) vs. New York Jets (46 Over/Under)
Despite what Allen did in 2017-19 …
- 2017 (16 games): 102-1,393-6, 159 targets | 2-9-0 rushing
- 2018 (16 games): 97-1,196-6, 136 targets | 9-75-0 rushing
- 2019 (16 games): 104-1,199-6, 149 targets | 3-16-0 rushing
… I was low on him entering 2020 because I expected a slow, run-focused offense with quarterback Tyrod Taylor. And in Week 1, I looked like a genius.
But with first-round rookie Justin Herbert’s sudden insertion into the Chargers’ lineup in Week 2, Allen has returned to form. He exited Week 5 early with a back injury, but Allen has dominated in his seven healthy games with Herbert.
- Week 2 (vs. KC): 16.6 PPR, 9.6 STD | 7-96-0, 10 targets
- Week 3 (vs. CAR): 30.2 PPR, 17.2 STD | 13-132-1, 19 targets
- Week 4 (at TB): 14.2 PPR, 6.2 STD | 8-62-0, 11 targets
- Week 7 (vs. JAX): 22.5 PPR, 12.5 STD | 10-125-0, 13 targets
- Week 8 (at DEN): 21.7 PPR, 12.7 STD | 9-67-1, 11 targets
- Week 9 (vs. LV): 25.3 PPR, 16.3 STD | 9-103-1, 11 targets
- Week 10 (at MIA): 12.9 PPR, 9.9 STD | 3-39-1, seven targets
In this seven-week sample, Allen is No. 2 behind only Davante Adams with a 32% target share and a 0.70 WOPR.
Allen’s cornerback matchups are especially juicy. Although he lines up all across the formation, Allen is the primary slot receiver for the Chargers. This week, the Jets lost starting slot defender Brian Poole (knee, IR), who is their best corner.
Filling in for Poole will be fourth-year undrafted journeyman and special-teamer Arthur Maulet, who has allowed a 76.4% catch rate in his career.
The Jets will also be without perimeter cornerback Pierre Desir, who they just waived. Starting in Desir’s vacated spot will likely be the other Lamar Jackson, an undrafted rookie who has allowed 13-213-2 receiving on 15 targets and 83 coverage snaps.
Allen should dominate these backups.
One possible concern with Allen this week is target volume: If the Chargers get out to a big lead as home favorites, will they throw the ball enough for Allen to put up fantasy points?
I actually think there’s a decent chance the Jets keep this game close. If you check out the Action Network App, you’ll see that I have a position on the Jets at +10. The line has moved toward them at +8.5, and we have tracked sharp money on the Jets.
To be clear: The Jets are bad. They are 2-7 against the spread (ATS). But that’s why they’re attractive in this spot. Teams with an ATS win rate no higher than 30% (after four games, so we have a decent sample) are an A-graded 478-402-24 ATS, good for a 5.4% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database). You can bet on this game at FanDuel.
Coming out of their bye week, the Jets might be better than expected. If that’s the case, then Allen could see his usual allotment of targets.
Allen has 10-plus targets in all of his full games with Herbert except for one — last week. And when he has hit that threshold throughout his career, he has unsurprisingly outshined (per RotoViz Game Splits App).
Show me the power child.
Allen is a volume-fueled WR1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 wide receiver in the Hodge Model for FanDuel, where he has a position-high eight Pro Trends.
Terry McLaurin: Washington Football Team (-1.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Off the Board)
The total for this game is off the board because the Footballers are dealing with a COVID-19 situation.
The Washington Football Team is in intensive protocols after a player tested positive for COVID-19. pic.twitter.com/meDD7VEkFP
— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) November 17, 2020
Even so, this game is expected to play.
This is McLaurin’s fifth week this season to pop in at least one of our Models. We’re on him.
In his first eight games, McLaurin faced an all-time brutal schedule of opposing No. 1 cornerbacks.
- Week 1: Darius Slay
- Week 2: Patrick Peterson
- Week 3: Denzel Ward
- Week 4: Marcus Peters
- Week 5: Jalen Ramsey
- Week 6: James Bradberry
- Week 7: Trevon Diggs (LOLz)
- Week 8: Bye
- Week 9: James Bradberry
He didn’t run all his routes against these defenders, but the point stands that McLaurin had it worse in the first half of the season than any other wide receiver.
And even with these matchups — Week 5 letdown aside — McLaurin has produced.
- Week 1 (vs. PHI): 11.1 PPR, 6.1 STD | 5-61-0, seven targets
- Week 2 (at ARI): 25.5 PPR, 18.5 STD | 7-125-1, 10 targets
- Week 3 (at CLE): 12.6 PPR, 8.6 STD | 4-83-0, eight targets | 1-3-0 rushing
- Week 4 (vs. BAL): 21.8 PPR, 11.8 STD | 10-118-0, 14 targets
- Week 5 (vs. LAR): 5.6 PPR, 2.6 STD | 3-26-0, seven targets
- Week 6 (at NYG): 14.4 PPR, 7.4 STD | 7-74-0, 12 targets
- Week 7 (vs. DAL): 22.0 PPR, 15.0 STD | 7-90-1, 11 targets
- Week 9 (vs. NYG): 24.5 PPR, 17.5 STD | 7-115-1, eight targets
- Week 10 (at DET): 17.2 PPR, 10.2 STD | 7-95-0, nine targets | 1-27-0 rushing
On the year, McLaurin is No. 2 with a 0.69 WOPR and No. 4 with 136.2 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game.
AirYAC is a leading indicator of fantasy output. You can find it in the RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary.
Regardless of whoever throws him the ball — Case Keenum and Colt McCoy last year, Dwayne Haskins over each of the past two seasons and now Kyle Allen and Alex Smith this year — McLaurin has proven himself to be the most quarterback-independent high-end producer we’ve seen at the position since DeAndre Hopkins early in his career.
McLaurin’s quarterback doesn’t matter. (Almost nothing matters.)
Despite his checkdown-inclined playing style, Smith hasn’t hindered McLaurin at all in his two games as Washington’s quarterback. Since Week 9, McLaurin has averaged 105 yards receiving per game.
As for the matchup, it could not be much better. The Bengals are No. 29 with a 23.0% pass-defense DVOA and could be without cornerbacks Darius Phillips (knee, IR), Mackensie Alexander (concussion) and LeShaun Sims (concussion).
I have a +6500 ticket on McLaurin to lead the league in receiving, and he’s No. 4 right now with 787 yards. He’s very much live.
McLaurin is a mid-range WR1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 receiver in the Bales, SportsGeek and Freedman Models on FanDuel, where he has a position-high eight Pro Trends.
Adam Thielen: Minnesota Vikings (-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys (48.5 O/U)
I wasn’t high on Thielen entering the year, but he’s on the WR1/2 borderline as a fantasy asset and is getting the job done.
One of my preseason concerns with Thielen was that the Vikings would have a slow run-heavy offense and that their No. 1 receiver would see fewer targets than he otherwise would. I was maybe halfway right. The Vikings are No. 28 in situation-neutral pace with 31.74 seconds per play and No. 4 with a 50.6% rush-play rate.
The Vikings, in fact, do have a slow, run-heavy offense.
But Thielen has still gotten his opportunities, ranking No. 6 at the position with a 28% market share of targets.
Now, it’s not as if his 7.2 targets per game is an obscenely high number. That ranks No. 25 among all wide receivers. But the quality of his targets is nearly unrivaled. He ranks No. 1 with 13 end-zone targets and No. 8 with 20 red-zone targets.
With this kind of usage, it’s not a surprise that Thielen leads the league with nine touchdowns receiving.
Additionally, quarterback Kirk Cousins is targeting him further downfield according to Thielen’s averaged depth of target (aDOT).
- 2020 aDOT: 14.0
- 2019 aDOT: 13.8
- 2018 aDOT: 10.0
With the enhanced opportunity to turn each target into more yards, Thielen isn’t just a touchdown-dependent receiver. He has a real chance each game to produce a top-end yardage total. On the year, Thielen is No. 2 in the league with a 0.69 WOPR.
One concern for Thielen is that he’s no longer the true No. 1 for the Vikings because of the emergence of rookie Justin Jefferson. And that’s a fact. Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3, Jefferson has notably outplayed Thielen.
- Justin Jefferson (seven games): 18.0 PPR, 12.7 STD | 37-692-3, 48 targets | 0.65 WOPR | 890 AirYAC
- Adam Thielen (seven games): 16.2 PPR, 11.7 STD | 32-382-7, 49 targets | 0.64 WOPR | 669 AirYAC
Jefferson caps Thielen’s ceiling.
Because Thielen doesn’t have elite target volume, he’s more prone to the vicissitudes of randomness that accompany receiving output. He’s been a boom-or-bust producer this year (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
But this week, the concerns one might normally have with Thielen are irrelevant because he’s playing the Cowboys, against whom opposing receiver units rank No. 2 with 30.6 fantasy points per game on 115-1,576-16 receiving.
Almost every perimeter receiver to face the Cowboys has produced.
- Robert Woods (Week 1): 17.9 PPR, 11.9 STD | 6-105-0, eight targets | 1-14-0 rushing
- Calvin Ridley (Week 2): 22.9 PPR, 10.9 STD | 7-109-2, 10 targets
- D.K. Metcalf (Week 3): 19.0 PPR, 15.0 STD | 4-110-1, eight targets
- Odell Beckham Jr. (Week 4): 38.4 PPR, 33.4 STD | 5-81-2, eight targets | 2-73-1 rushing
- Darius Slayton (Week 5): 20.9 PPR, 12.9 STD | 8-129-0, 11 targets
- DeAndre Hopkins (Week 6): 9.3 PPR, 7.3 STD | 2-73-0, eight targets
- Christian Kirk (Week 6): 22.6 PPR, 20.6 STD | 2-86-2, three targets
- Terry McLaurin (Week 7): 22.0 PPR, 15.0 STD | 7-90-1, 11 targets
- Travis Fulgham (Week 8): 19.8 PPR, 13.8 STD | 6-78-1, seven targets
- Jalen Reagor (Week 8): 13.2 PPR, 10.2 STD | 3-16-1, six targets | 1-6-0 rushing
- Chase Claypool (Week 9): 15.3 PPR, 7.3 STD | 8-69-0, 13 targets | 1-4-0 rushing
- Diontae Johnson (Week 9): 14.1 PPR, 8.1 STD | 6-77-0, 10 targets | 1-4-0 rushing
Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring, IR) is expected to return to action, but rookie Trevon Diggs (foot, IR) is out. The Cowboys’ cornerbacks should be just as bad this week as they are most weeks.
In sports betting, I haven’t taken a position yet on this game because I’m torn in different directions. Ultimately, I might pass. But there’s no question this is a good spot for the Vikings.
Since head coach Mike Zimmer joined the team in 2014, the Vikings are 66-38-1 ATS (23.4% ROI) in the regular season.
And as you might expect with an ATS record that good, Zimmer has exhibited all sorts of regular-season edges throughout his tenure.
- At home: 34-17-1 ATS | 29.6% ROI
- As favorite: 38-21-1 | 25.4% ROI
- Outside of division: 45-19-1 | 36.1% ROI
These trends make sense within the context of who Zimmer is as a coach and what kind of team the Vikings have historically been under him. Zimmer is a focused, no-nonsense, risk-averse, process-oriented, defense-directed “manager” (for lack of a better word), and the Vikings have been a disciplined team that doesn’t often make big mistakes.
The Vikings don’t waste the natural advantage they have at home. They don’t play down to the level of their underdog opponents. They don’t present a known and easy challenge to teams that aren’t familiar with them.
This week, they’re in a “solar eclipse” spot with all of Zimmer’s historical edges lining up.
As non-divisional home favorites, the Vikings are 19-5-1 ATS (52.7% ROI). You can bet on this game at DraftKings.
In this onslaught spot, it’s not hard to imagine Thielen scoring at least one touchdown.
Thielen is a mid-range WR1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 receiver in the Bales and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.
Robby Anderson: Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Detroit Lions (45.5 O/U)
Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (knee) suffered an injury in Week 10, but reports indicate that it was relatively minor and that he might play this week. He practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday.
If Bridgewater can’t play, it looks like P.J. Walker — the uncrowned 2020 XFL MVP — would draw the start.
While it’s never ideal for a receiver to lose his starting quarterback, the drop-off from Bridgewater to Walker might not be that big for Anderson, given his long history with Walker.
Checking to see if @adamlevitan has already tweeted about this …
IMPORTANT NEWS: Backup Panthers QB P.J. Walker and No. 1 WR Robby Anderson played (and presumably showered) together at Temple in 2013-15 w/ HC Matt Rhule.
You know what to do. 🚿🚿🚿#ShowerNarrative
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 17, 2020
Just consider yourself lucky that we haven’t put this type of premium analysis behind the paywall.
As hard as this is to say after Anderson was 4-21-0 receiving on six targets last week, he is still the No. 1 receiver in Carolina.
Relative to what he did in Weeks 1-5, Anderson disappointed in Weeks 6-10 (per RotoViz Game Splits App).
There’s nothing sexy about a guy getting 54.8 yards and scoring no touchdowns.
But let’s be real: Anderson has game-breaking talent and an average of eight targets over his past five games. Even with his recent lack of production, there aren’t many receivers with his combination of talent and volume.
Slot receiver Curtis Samuel missed Week 6 but returned to action in Week 7, so Anderson, Samuel and D.J. Moore have all been active over the past month. A comparison of the three in that timeframe is useful.
Without question, Anderson has been outproduced.
- Robby Anderson (Weeks 7-10): 10.9 PPR, 4.9 STD | 24-197-0, 35 targets
- Curtis Samuel (Weeks 7-10): 17.3 PPR, 11.8 STD | 22-185-2, 25 targets | 10-45-2 rushing
- D.J. Moore (Weeks 7-10): 14.1 PPR, 11.1 STD | 12-262-3, 21 targets
But even within this sample, Anderson has dominated on a per-game basis with his underlying metrics.
- Robby Anderson (Weeks 7-10): 28% target share | 0.70 WOPR | 110 AirYAC
- Curtis Samuel (Weeks 7-10): 20% target share | 0.43 WOPR | 62 AirYAC
- D.J. Moore (Weeks 7-10): 17% target share | 0.48 WOPR | 98 AirYAC
Anderson is still the man.
So I woke up this morning, had two big cups of decaf, wrote a couple of fantasy blurbs, got to the Robby Anderson section of the WR breakdown, and then stood up from my desk, walked out of my office and into the master bathroom and looked myself in the mirror and said …
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 12, 2020
This week, Anderson has a delicious matchup against the Lions, who are No. 30 in the NFL with a 40.5 PFF pass-defense grade.
Specifically, Anderson seems likely to face cornerback Desmond Trufant, whom the Lions have used in shadow coverage since he returned from injury in Week 9. Trufant never had a PFF coverage grade lower than 65.0 in his seven years with the Falcons, but he has an abysmal mark of 40.5 this season with the Lions.
Just last week, Terry McLaurin went off for 7-95-0 receiving on nine targets against Trufant and the Lions.
At this point in his career, Trufant represents a neutral matchup at best.
Anderson is a borderline WR1/2 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 option in the CSURAM88, Koerner and Raybon Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +4.35 Projected Plus/Minus.
Michael Gallup: Dallas Cowboys (+7) at Minnesota Vikings (48.5 O/U)
The last time Gallup topped any of the FantasyLabs Models was Week 5.
How long ago does that seem?
Entering Week 5, Dak Prescott (ankle, IR) was the starting quarterback for the Cowboys. The Presidential election was still a month away.
Week 11 is not like Week 5, but there are reasons to be optimistic about Gallup and the Cowboys.
First of all, the Cowboys are expected to have No. 2 quarterback Andy Dalton (COVID-19), who has been absent since exiting Week 7 early with a concussion. He should be a significant upgrade over third- and fourth-stringers Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert.
Secondly, the Cowboys are coming off their bye week, so they should be as prepared as possible for the Vikings, who are on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football last week.
Thirdly, the spread has significantly moved toward the Cowboys from +9.5, and they have some sports-betting edges in this spot. In the Action Network App, you’ll see that almost all the signals — Sharp Action, Big Money, PRO Systems and Top Experts — point to the Cowboys as the side to bet.
And then there’s the matchup: The Vikings are bad. Opposing receiver units rank No. 4 in the league against them with 29.5 fantasy points per game on 123-1,611-16 receiving.
On top of that, the Vikings are horrendously thin at cornerback. Let’s ignore the fact that last year’s starters — Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander — all left this offseason via free agency. Let’s focus only on the team’s corners now.
All of the guys who started in Week 1 are injured.
Holton Hill (foot, IR) hasn’t played since Week 5. Mike Hughes (neck, IR) hasn’t played since Week 6. There’s a real chance neither returns this year.
Cameron Dantzler (concussion) exited Week 8 early and missed Weeks 9-10. He practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday, but he also had limited practices every day last week before being declared out. Until he actually clears the league’s protocol, he can’t be counted on to start.
And backup Mark Fields II (chest, IR) is also out. At this point, the Vikings are starting backups, third-stringers and special-teamers at cornerback.
Gallup is good enough to beat these nonentities.
This year has not been kind to Gallup, but it’s worth remembering that he was 66-1,107-6 receiving on 113 targets in just 14 games as a de facto co-No. 1 receiver with Amari Cooper in 2019.
And although Prescott clearly favored Cooper and rookie CeeDee Lamb early in the season, Gallup has been their equal in his four full Prescott-less games this year — not in terms of production …
- Michael Gallup (Weeks 6-10): 6.0 PPR, 3.0 STD | 12-120-0, 27 targets
- Amari Cooper (Weeks 6-10): 12.6 PPR, 7.6 STD | 20-231-1, 28 targets | 2-13-0 rushing
- CeeDee Lamb (Weeks 6-10): 9.8 PPR, 6.1 STD | 15-162-1, 27 targets | 2-20-0 rushing
… but certainly in terms of his per-game opportunities.
- Michael Gallup (Weeks 6-10): 18% target share | 0.44 WOPR | 80.5 AirYAC
- Amari Cooper (Weeks 6-10): 19% target share | 0.42 WOPR | 70.8 AirYAC
- CeeDee Lamb (Weeks 6-10): 18% target share | 0.46 WOPR | 87.8 AirYAC
In a world without Prescott, the difference between Cooper and Lamb on the one hand and Gallup on the other hand is rather small.
A viable bye-week desperation flyer, Gallup is the No. 1 receiver in the CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon, Hodge and Freedman Models for DraftKings.
Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside
In this section, I highlight some wide receivers I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts (51 O/U): In case you haven’t noticed, Adams is the NFL’s best wide receiver. He’s No. 1 in the league with 149.7 AirYAC per game. Adams leads all receivers in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections. He has 10-plus targets in every healthy game this year. Adams (ankle) is dealing with an injury but is expected to play.
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) at New Orleans Saints (50 O/U): At the Mercedes-Benz Superdome (a.k.a. the Coors Field of Fantasy Football), this game could explode with points. In his six full games this year, Jones has been his typically productive self.
- Week 1 (vs. SEA): 24.7 PPR, 15.7 STD | 9-157-0, 12 targets
- Week 2 (at DAL): 4.4 PPR, 2.4 STD | 2-24-0, four targets
- Week 6 (at MIN): 33.7 PPR, 25.7 STD | 8-137-2, 10 targets
- Week 7 (vs. DET): 17.7 PPR, 9.7 STD | 8-97-0, nine targets
- Week 8 (at CAR): 20.7 PPR, 13.7 STD | 7-137-0, 10 targets
- Week 9 (vs. DEN): 16.4 PPR, 11.4 STD | 5-54-1, seven targets
Jones is No. 4 at the position with 2.65 yards per route.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints (-4.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (50 O/U): Having Jameis Winston at quarterback worked out pretty well for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, know what I mean?
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (46.5 O/U): The Steelers have a slate-high 28.25-point implied Vegas total, and the Jaguars are No. 31 with a 30.2% pass-defense DVOA. Over his past four games, Smith-Schuster has returned to 2018 form with a team-best 31-322-2 receiving on 42 targets.
Will Fuller, Houston Texans (+2) vs. New England Patriots (48.5 O/U): With the exception of his injury-impacted Week 2 and weather-derailed Week 10, Fuller has either 100 yards or a touchdown in every game this year.
The day I stop being optimistic about Will Fuller is the day I lie dead and buried six feet under in the coffin Will Fuller has put me in. https://t.co/2DekreuV99
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) September 23, 2020
We ain’t dead yet. Let’s live while we’re still alive.
Jamison Crowder, New York Jets (+9) at Los Angeles Chargers (46 O/U): With 9.6 targets per game, Crowder is No. 5 among all wide receivers in the category. Since joining the Jets, he has had notable splits with real quarterbacks (in other words, without someone like third-stringer Luke Falk).
Crowder is slated to match up in the slot with Tevaughn Campbell, a second-year, undrafted third-stringer who has allowed 9-92-2 receiving on 11 targets in 79 career coverage snaps.
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (46.5 O/U): The high-flying Claypool is top on the team with 2.20 yards per route for the season, and he has a Megatron-esque eight touchdowns in seven games since becoming a regular in three-wide sets. He has double-digit targets in each of the past two weeks.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys (48.5 O/U): Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3, Jefferson has an NFL-high 692 yards receiving. For the season, he is No. 1 with 3.23. yards per route.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (46.5 O/U): The second-year receiver has suffered in-game injuries in almost half the games he has played this year.
- Week 3: Concussion
- Week 5: Back
- Week 7: Leg/ankle
- Week 8: Hamstring
And that doesn’t take into account that he missed Week 6. But in the six games in which Johnson has played at least 70% of the snaps (Weeks 1-2, Weeks 7-10), he is 36-428-4 receiving with a team-high 63 targets, 26% market share, 0.59 WOPR and 125.2 AirYAC per game.
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team (Off the Board): Lines for this game have been pulled because Washington is dealing with a COVID-19 situation. When lines were available, the Bengals were +1.5 favorites. Since his Week 3 breakout, Higgins is 37-568-4 receiving on 55 targets in seven games with a team-high 126 AirYAC per game.
So I woke up today, had a medium-sized cup of decaf coffee, did some jumping jacks and pushups, and then finally, while sitting down to write a fantasy article, looked at some stats and said:
“Tee Higgins is the WR1 in Cincinnati, and A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd aren’t.”
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 22, 2020
Only most of that is a lie.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions (+1.5) at Carolina Panthers (45.5 O/U): in his four full games this year, Golladay has either 100 yards or a touchdown receiving. The Panthers are No. 31 with a 36.7 PFF coverage grade. Golladay (hip) exited Week 8 early with an injury and has missed the past two games, but he has returned to practice and is expected to play.
D.J. Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (46.5 O/U): Teammate Laviska Shenault Jr. (hamstring) missed Week 10 and seems unlikely to play this weekend. In his absence, Chark could enjoy extra target volume. In his two games with new quarterback Jake Luton, Chark is 11-202-1 receiving on 17 targets.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Detroit Lions (45.5 O/U): In the first month of the season, Moore was a touchdown-less disappointment, but he is 21-448-4 receiving over the past six weeks. Moore is still pacing for his second straight 1,100-yard season, and he has more fantasy WR1 performances this year than teammate Anderson (2 PPR, 3 STD vs. 2 PPR, 1 STD).
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team (Off the Board): I should probably write a blurb about Boyd. Against all odds, he’s on pace for his third consecutive 1,000-yard season and is No. 4 in Hayden Winks’ Week 11 fantasy usage model.
Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys (+7) at Minnesota Vikings (48.5 O/U): In quarterback Dalton’s two starts, Cooper was 14-159-1 receiving on 17 targets. For the season, he is still No. 7 with 15.4 expected fantasy points per game.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos (+3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (45.5 O/U): Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 8, Jeudy leads the Broncos with 15-266-1 receiving on 32 targets. He has had under-appreciated opportunity and production as a rookie.
AirYAC (air yards + yards after catch) per game going into Week 11:
1. Davante: 149.7 🔥
2. Metcalf: 143.8
3. Ridley: 138
4. McLaurin: 136.2
5. Tyreek: 134.6
6. Diggs: 129.2
7. Jeudy: 124.6 🚀
8. Nuk: 121.6
9. Crowder: 121.4
10. Lockett: 119.7
11. Robby: 118.6
12: Keenan: 117.3
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 19, 2020
Jeudy (ankle) is dealing with an injury but expected to play.
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (+2) vs. New England Patriots (48.5 O/U): Although teammate Will Fuller gets the hype, Cooks is No. 1 on the team with his 23% target share and 0.54 WOPR. In his five games since the firing of head coach Bill O’Brien, Cooks is 33-411-3 receiving on 47 targets. He is the No. 1 wide receiver in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 11 Air Yards Buy-Low Model.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (-9) vs. New York Jets (46 O/U): When I feel especially iconoclastic, I make ridiculous statements, such as “Williams is better than Keenan Allen.” A boom-or-bust receiver, Williams is 18-331-3 receiving on 31 targets in five games since returning from injury in Week 5. He is perpetually undervalued.
Top 5 in yards per target since 2018:
1. Tyler Lockett: 10.7 🍳
2. D.K. Metcalf: 10.4 🍳
3. Will Fuller: 10.3 💨
4. Mike Williams: 10.2 👀👀
5. Chris Godwin: 10.1 💪
(Includes postseason, min. 150 targets)
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 19, 2020
Logically, I know he’s not better than Allen … but are we sure?
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys (+7) at Minnesota Vikings (48.5 O/U): Three Cowboys wide receivers? With a backup quarterback?? In this economy???
Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots (-2) at Houston Texans (48.5 O/U): In the absence of No. 1 receiver Julian Edelman (knee, IR), Meyers is 23-286-0 receiving with a league-high 42% market share since Week 8. He might see the shadow coverage of Bradley Roby, but that shouldn’t be much of a deterrent: Since 2018 when he became a top-two corner in his defenses (first with the Broncos and now with the Texans), Roby has allowed 8.5 yards per target.
Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Detroit Lions (45.5 O/U): Using the same joke twice? About highlighting three wide receivers from the same team?? In this economy???
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (51 O/U): Over the past two weeks, Pittman has led the Colts with 15 targets, 11 receptions, 157 yards receiving and 239 AirYAC. No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander (concussion/hand) missed last week but was a full participant in practice on Thursday.
K.J. Hamler, Denver Broncos (+3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (45.5 O/U): An upside speedster, Hamler has averaged seven targets in his five healthy games, and he has 10 targets in each of the past two weeks. In Week 8, the Broncos moved him to the slot, where he now has an excellent matchup with cornerback Nik Needham, a second-year, undrafted special teamer-turned-slot man who has allowed 8.6 yards per target for his career.
Jakeem Grant, Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Denver Broncos (45.5 O/U): In the absence of perimeter receiver Preston Williams (foot, IR) and slot man Isaiah Ford (traded), Grant played a season-high 44 snaps last week and was a triumphant 4-43-1 receiving on five targets. The odds are that Grant won’t have a big game, but he has a newfound elevated floor with 8.8, 8.5, 7.5 and 14.3 PPR points over his past four games. You could do a lot worse for a deep flyer.
The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Keenan Allen
Photo credit: Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images