UFC Vegas 62 is now down to 11 fights after yet another weigh-in mishap. The headliner is a women’s flyweight bout between Alexa Grasso and Viviane Araujo, both top-10 fighters in the weight class.
While it’s not the most attention-grabbing main event, it’s a solid card overall — though only having 11 fights means finding ways to be unique will be crucial in GPPs.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Alexa Grasso ($9,000) vs. Viviane Araujo ($7,200)
This fight is oddly reminiscent of the main event from UFC Vegas 61, in which a pair of female contenders — who are still a couple of fights away from title contention — square off. Both bouts would be fairly low on our priority list from a DFS standpoint if they were three founds, but the five-round nature makes them worth attending to.
Like Dern last time, Grasso is a moderate but not overwhelming favorite. The line has shifted even further in her direction throughout the week, making her a solid value option. She’s an excellent play from a safety standpoint, as a high-volume striker in a bout likely to go the full 25 minutes.
The decision is tougher for GPPs, as there’s a handful of expensive fighters with far more upside. Grasso has just one finish in six UFC wins, and that was the only bout where she scored north of 92 points. This is her first five rounder though, so some of those dominant performances would translate to higher scores over 25 minutes.
Araujo’s salary means a win almost certainly propels her to the optimal lineup — exactly what we saw from Xionan Yan in the last event. “Vivi” arguably carries more upside (relative to both Yan and Grasso) thanks to her grappling. She’s at 2.23 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, and Grasso has roughly average takedown defense.
As is generally the case with main events, the underdog is the sharper side for GPPs here. There’s also a case to be made for stacking this fight on an 11-fight event. A Grasso win thanks to high-output striking — but some Araujo takedowns interspersed — could produce solid scores for both fighters.
As (almost) always, just roster them both for cash games.
The Easy Chalk
We have another event with three massive favorites. I’ll be discussing each of them, though it’s unlikely all three are truly “chalk” thanks to the salary constraints. The likely chalk build will feature two of these fighters — finding a way to fit all three could be very unique.
Pete Rodriguez ($9,500)
Here we go again. Rodriguez is fighting Mike Jackson ($6,700), the most confounding of UFC fighters. Jackson was brought in — with just a 1-0 amateur MMA record — back in 2016 to lend some legitimacy to Mickey Gall before Gall fought CM Punk. Jackson was dispatched in under a minute, then brought back to fight Punk. He won that bout, but it was later overturned due to a positive drug test from Jackson.
For a long time, that seemed to be the end of the photographer’s foray into professional MMA. Inexplicably, he resurfaced earlier this year. Jackson was a massive underdog — but won the fight thanks to a pair of illegal blows from Dean Barry.
Due to the quirks of the UFC contracts — in which fighters can only be cut following a loss — that means we get one more Mike Jackson fight. The lucky opponent this time is Pete Rodriguez, a 4-1 pro (0-1 UFC) who was last seen getting demolished by Jack Della Maddalena.
Rodriguez is a massive favorite here, in the -700 range. However, stylistically he’s about as close to a favorable matchup as exists for Jackson. Rodriguez is mostly a striker, and Jackson has a kickboxing background but is extremely limited (to put it generously) in the grappling department.
Rodriguez should make short work of Jackson here — ideally by taking him down. He’s -190 to win this one in the first round. That obviously makes him an excellent DFS play. With that said, I’m concerned that this one ends up closer than it might appear.
For that reason, I’ll likely steer clear in cash games — there are other massive favorites out there. For GPPs, Rodriguez is an excellent choice though, even at high ownership. As much as it pains me, I’ll also have a Jackson lineup or two as well. He has a shot if this one stays standing.
Victor Henry ($9,300)
Henry is set to make his sophomore UFC outing after an impressive win over Raoni Barcelos in his debut. That fight was impressive for two reasons. The first is because Barcelos looked great in his next fight. The second — and more important for DFS — the reason is due to Henry’s ridiculous output.
Henry averaged over 115 significant strikes attempted per round in his debut. We sometimes see numbers like that from fighters who pick up a quick stoppage — but Henry kept that pace across three rounds. While we’re generally hunting for takedowns or finishes in DFS, landing over 180 significant strikes leads to some big scores as well.
This time, he’s facing 40-year-old Raphael Assuncao ($6,900), Assuncao has been with the UFC since 2011, picking up wins over TJ Dillashaw and Aljamain Sterling, among others. He’s also on a four-fight skid, with two straight knockout losses.
Henry is a heavy favorite here at -400 or so and has a reasonable shot to end things early against a fighter whose chin has seemingly departed. He’s an excellent mix of safety and upside for all contest types.
Joanderson Brito ($9,400)
Brito was originally slated to fight Melsik Baghdasaryan before a broken hand forced the latter out of the bout. That’s fortuitous for Brito, who was a slight underdog to the Armenian.
Now he’s fighting Lucas Alexander ($6,800) a 7-2 prospect making his UFC debut. Alexander has fought mostly lower-level competition in his pro career, and Brito represents a major step up. Brito has a ton of upside, as he demonstrated in his impressive knockout against Andre Fili back in April.
Like Henry, Brito is a solid mix of both safety and upside here. Brito has the better stoppage odds, as a -165 favorite to win inside the distance. He’s not as active of a striker as Henry though, so it’s a tradeoff between volume and finishing ability.
I’ll be trying to squeeze both into my cash lineup while mixing the two more or less evenly in GPPs.
The Value Play
Sam Hughes ($7,600)
Women’s MMA underdog? Check. Line movement in her favor? Check. Longest stoppage odds on the slate? Also, check.
Hughes is everything we’re looking for in a cash game salary saver. Her betting line has gone from +145 to +140 on DraftKings (with other books even more favorable to “Sampage”) and this fight is +215 to end inside the distance. Hughes has the best floor of any of the longshots on the card, with the possible exception of the main event.
Beyond that, she may even have some sneaky upside. She’s won her last two fights (After starting 0-3 in the UFC), and the improvement has largely come from mixing in more grappling. She’s gone six for 12 on takedowns in her two wins after attempting just three (landing none) in her prior three fights.
A Hughes win — especially with lots of wrestling involved — would almost guarantee a spot in the optimal, even without a stoppage. She’s also highly likely to put up a respectable score in a loss, making her a must for cash games.
The Contrarian Approach
Jordan Wright ($7,500)
Wright’s fight with Dusko Todorovic ($8,700) is a ridiculous -800 to be settled without help from the judges. Wright is a roughly +175 underdog though, so Todorovic will likely be the far more popular choice.
I’m not so sure he should be though. Todorovic is 2-3 in the UFC, with both wins coming against (since released) fighters with major holes in their grappling. Todorovic finished both victories on the ground.
Wright has 100% takedown defense in his UFC tenure. While he’s far from a high-level grappler, he’s no walkover in that department. He also has a three-inch read edge on Todorivc and has picked up both of his UFC wins via TKO.
Both men have highly suspect chins, but Wright has shown an ability to end things on the feet while Todorovic hasn’t. This one is far too scary for cash games, but Wright is an excellent tournament play.
The Upside Play
Cub Swanson ($7,400)
Swanson is taking on Jonathan Martinez ($8,800) in Saturday’s co-main event. The 38-year-old Swanson is 13-8 in a UFC career that dates back to 2011, picking up notable wins over Aljamain Sterling and TJ Dillashaw, among others.
Between 2017 and 2019, Swanson went on a four-fight losing streak, and his best days appeared to be behind him. However, he’s since rallied back to win three of his last four, including two knockout victories. Swanson has massive power, which should play even better with his drop down to bantamweight for this fight.
Martinez is also a southpaw, something that bodes well for Swanson:
Cub Swanson is 3-0 against UFC Southpaws.
One of those was Dustin Porier…— Clint MacLean (@DieHardMMAPod) October 12, 2022
(Thanks to Action Network contributor Clint MacClean for pointing that out.)
While there’s reason to worry about an older fighter dropping a weight class — for example cardio concerns — the one thing that should play well is his cardio. Martinez has absorbed a large volume of significant strikes in his UFC run, and it might only take one from Swanson.
He’s an excellent GPP option.
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The Swing Fight
Nick Maximov ($8,300) vs. Jacob Malkoun ($7,900)
While this is technically an MMA fight, the contest between Nick Maximov and Jacob Malkoun could very well end up looking like a grappling match. Neither men have much interest — or if we’re being honest, ability — in the stand-up department, but both are high-level grapplers.
The American Maximov is more of a traditional wrestler, shooting for takedowns from the outside. Malkoun is a jiu-jitsu brown belt who looks to bring things to the mat with a variety of trips and throws. The two of them combine for more than 12 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
It’s hard to be sure who will get the better of this one, but the likeliest outcome is a close matchup. That means both fighters finding openings to get back to their feet — leaving opportunities for more takedowns. We should see a ton of points on both sides here, with the eventual winner finding their way into the optimal lineup.
If we truly get a close 15-minute wrestling match, stacking both fighters has some appeal as well. Given the small card, staying unique will be extremely difficult — and stacking to three-round fighters is one way to accomplish that.
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