UFC Vegas 112 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Allen vs. Duncan, More Saturday Fights

We’re back to the Apex for UFC Vegas 112, a fight card featuring a solid main event and not much else of note.

The 12-card slate locks at the usual 5:00 p.m. ET, let’s get into the DFS angles.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in the UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

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The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in tournaments, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Brendan Allen ($8,500) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan ($7,700)

Perhaps the only “important” fight on this week’s fight night in terms of rankings or potential title futures is the middleweight main event between Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan. Both men are ranked inside the division’s top ten, with Allen at #5 and Duncan at #10.

Allen is perennially just outside the title picture, losing only to the division’s best while holding serve against lesser competition. “CLD” is earlier in his UFC career, and riding a five-fight winning streak that earned him a place in the top ten. A win over Allen would insert him into the title conversation, while Allen needs to fend off another contender to keep his hopes alive.

This is a fairly classic “striker vs. grappler” matchup, with Allen as the grappler. Three of his four losses came in fights where he failed to land a takedown, and he picked up just one on ten attempts in the other. Duncan is an explosive striker with five of his eight UFC wins coming via knockout, but his takedown defense is relatively poor. Both men have improved on their weaknesses in recent fights, but this one still probably comes down to where it takes place.

Allen is durable, and Duncan is fairly good at escaping back to his feet, raising the floor for both fighters in a fight favored to reach the championship rounds. I don’t necessarily think this is a must-stack in cash games, but unless you have stronger options, it’s a relatively safe choice. For tournaments, I’ll have one or the other in most of my lineups, with a lean toward Allen and his takedown-based upside.

The Easy Chalk

Felipe Franco ($9,300)

The two top fighters on the slate in both price and projection are, all things considered, fairly similar plays. We’ll start with Felipe Franco, who makes his second light heavyweight appearance after losing to Mario Pinto at heavyweight in his debut. He gets what should be a gimme matchup against Brendson Ribeiro ($6,900).

Ribeiro is somehow still employed (at least until next week) after dropping four straight UFC fights, the first three in the first round. While he reached a decision in his most recent loss, he was taken down eight times. Essentially, he’s been a DFS goldmine for his opponents one way or the other.

Franco is a bit scary, given that he lost to a middleweight on the Contender Series before his fight with Pinto. That loss looks more like a fluke now, though, considering Franco’s second-round knockout of Levi Rodrigues in July. Encouragingly, he landed two takedowns and finished that fight on the ground, which should be a clear path for him against Ribeiro.

His takedown upside makes him my slight preference over the other top option. He also brings slightly better Round 1 finish odds, but both are great plays if you can get there.

Julius Walker ($9,200)

The other top option is Walker, who, like Franco, earns that billing largely because of his opponent. That would be Gerald Meerschaert ($7,000), who will make his 27th UFC appearance on Saturday. Unfortunately for GM3, his last five have been losses. At 38 years old, it’s hard to see him turning that around now.

Walker is also on a losing streak after suffering consecutive knockout losses in 2026. However, the 27-year-old faced fairly stiff competition, and this bout feels like the UFC doing him a solid after he fought a top prospect in his last appearance. As long as he can avoid Meerschaert’s takedowns, he should have a fairly easy time on the feet.

I’m less confident in Walker’s abilities than in Franco’s, but he’s a reasonably safe -300 favorite and -185 to get a stoppage. The dream scenario is fitting both fighters into as many lineups as possible, which isn’t a huge reach. I’ll have a lot of Walker even if I’m slightly heavier on Franco.

The Upside Plays

Matheus Camilo ($8,800)

An alternative to the two top-end fighters is Matheus Camilo, whose $8,800 salary makes lineup construction a bit easier while bringing just as much upside to the table. Camilo doesn’t have the stoppage odds of the light heavyweights mentioned above but gets a near-ideal stylistic matchup against Jai Herbert ($7,400).

Camilo averages over four takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. In the only fight where he failed to land at least two, he picked up a first-round knockout victory. Herbert is a tall, rangy striker who is 0-5 in fights where he was taken down at least once. He’s also coming off a win over Mandel Nallo in which he was nearly knocked out early before rallying back, raising some questions about his durability at age 38.

The 25-year-old Camilo is obviously still trending up and should be able to push the pace with takedowns against Herbert. That’s especially true in the smaller cage used at the Apex, where Herbert’s length won’t benefit him as much as it would with more room to work.

Herbert still carries plenty of power, as we saw in his last fight. That’s why Camilo is more of an “upside play” than a lock-button option, but the bull case is clearly there. Assuming he doesn’t get caught early – and he’s never been knocked out in his career – he could pile up a bunch of takedowns, plenty of control time, or both. He’s one of my favorite plays on the slate.

The Value Play

Ketlen Souza ($7,200)

As has rapidly become the trend in the UFC, the vast majority of fights on the card are favored to end inside the distance, with most of the outliers being women’s bouts. With two of those underdogs priced at $7,800 or more, the semi-obvious budget option for cash games is Ketlen Souza, who takes on Loopy Godinez ($9,000) in a fight that is -275 to go all 15 minutes.

There’s some risk that Souza gets out-grappled by Godinez to the point that she doesn’t put up a solid “floor” score even in a decision. However, outside of a submission loss in her debut, the Brazilian has managed at least 56 significant strikes in all of her losses. That’s a reasonable floor at her price point, and even in a worst-case scenario, she should be able to scramble back to her feet against Godinez.

More importantly, she’s cheap enough to let you stack the main event and play both top fighters in cash-game lineups. The other fighters who allow for that type of build have much lower floors, so she’s a solid play from a structural standpoint, if nothing else.

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The Contrarian Choice

Otari Tanzilovi ($7,300)

In tournaments – or even cash games if you’re feeling bold – the other cheap option I’m interested in is Otari Tanzilovi. The Georgian (country, not state) is 0-2 in the UFC/DWCS but went the full 15 minutes in both losses and picked up at least four takedowns in each contest. He gets a solid stylistic matchup against Malcolm Wellmaker ($8,900), a former top prospect whose star has fallen after dropping two straight.

Both losses involved plenty of grappling from Wellmaker’s opponents, with Ethyn Ewing picking up three takedowns and Juan Diaz five. Wellmaker is a very solid boxer, but his boxing stance makes takedown entries fairly easy. His height and length also make it easier to shoot for his legs. In all, he defends takedowns at a sub-50% clip, which is very poor by UFC standards.

Wellmaker’s power and athleticism mean a quick knockout is always on the table, but Tanzilovi has never been finished and has the ideal style to exploit Wellmaker’s weaknesses. The floor is somewhat low, but the upside is clearly there, which is more than we can say about any of the other fighters in his price range.

The Swing Fight

Leon Shahbazyan ($8,700) vs. Niko Price ($7,500)

I genuinely have no idea what to make of the fight between Leon Shahbazyan and Niko Price. Price intended to retire following his loss to Michael Chiesa in March, his fourth straight defeat. However, the UFC used up too much airtime honoring the victorious Chiesa and is giving Price one more shot to go out in style. He’s twice been on the wrong side of retirement fights, including an upset knockout loss to former champion Robbie Lawler in 2023.

Price is just 1-4 since that fight and has been finishing progressively more quickly in every appearance. However, Shahbazyan was almost entirely noncompetitive in his UFC debut in June, suffering a leg-kick TKO in just 23 seconds. That came seven years after he was knocked out on the Contender Series. All of his fights in the interim ended in either submission wins or knockout losses, with none making it past the first round.

Neither man instills much confidence, and both can put the other away in the area where his opponent is weakest. This fight has massive -750 odds to end inside the distance and -160 odds to end in the first round. That means the winner almost certainly makes the optimal lineup.

The moneyline odds have narrowed since salaries dropped on Monday, making Price the value side at just +120. Of course, that means we’ll get lower ownership on Shahbazyan, so he’s potentially the better tournament option. I’ll have some of both, but with a lean toward the favorite, since being contrarian is fairly important on a smallish 12-fight slate.

Pictured: Natalia Silva
Photo Credit: Imagn Images