The 2023 PGA TOUR season will come to an end this week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta with the TOUR Championship. The top 30 players left standing in the FedEx Cup standings will compete for the FedEx Cup Championship and huge $18 million payday that accompanies it.
East Lake Golf Club is a par-70 layout, measuring 7,319 yards with Bermudagrass greens. A Donald Ross design, the difficulty this week for players will be managing the fast and undulating putting surface. That said, golfers with varying skill sets can compete at East Lake.
For contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is excellent for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Note: Pricing goes up to $13,400, so the ranges may look different than usual.
Strokes Gained: Approach
SG: Approach is the most predictive statistic at East Lake Golf Club. Success in this event has come in the form of many different types of golfers, but one of the consistent factors is the winners are putting their approach shots close.
- High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $13,400 (1st Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Mid-range target: Lucas Glover — $9,700 (2nd Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Value target: Russell Henley — $8,300 (3rd Strokes Gained: Approach)
Good Drives Gained
In the past, we have seen some of the most accurate golfers play their best golf at East Lake. Being a bomber isn’t a requirement this week; it is far more important to hit fairways. The golfers who put the ball in play most often should have a strong chance to compete in Atlanta.
- High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $13,400 (6th Good Drives Gained)
- Mid-range target: Lucas Glover — $9,700 (2nd Good Drives Gained)
- Value target: Si Woo Kim — $7,200 (4th Good Drives Gained)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass + Lightning)
The difficulty of East Lake will be the speed of the greens. Donald Ross designs are known for having different levels on a sloping green, which makes finding the correct place to land the ball challenging. To be successful, golfers must excel at putting on both Bermuda grass greens and with lightning-fast speeds.
- High-end target: Xander Schauffele — $10,500 (1st in Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass + Lightning)
- Mid-range target: Tommy Fleetwood — $8,800 (4th in Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass + Lightning)
- Value target: Sepp Straka — $5,400 (8th in Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass + Lightning)
Par 4: 450-500
Five of the par 4s at East Lake are between 450-500 yards. Playing these more difficult holes under par will be a good barometer of who has success in this week’s TOUR Championship.
- High-end target: Viktor Hovland — $12,500 (1st Par 4: 450-500)
- Mid-range target: Lucas Glover — $9,700 (9th Par 4: 450-500)
- Value target: Sepp Straka — $5,400 (16th Par 4: 450-500)
Strokes Gained: Donald Ross Designs
We have seen the same golfers thrive on Ross designs season after season. The requirement for strategic ball placement combined with the undulating greens seems to catch the eye of specific players. It is important to note the players in this field who play their best golf on Ross designs.
- High-end target: Xander Schauffele — $10,500 (3rd Strokes Gained: Donald Ross Designs)
- Mid-range target: Sungjae Im — $8,500 (6th Strokes Gained: Donald Ross Designs)
- Value target: Si Woo Kim — $7,200— (11th Strokes Gained: Donald Ross Designs)
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