Super Bowl 53 will pit two of the league’s best offenses against one another.
This wide receiver breakdown will feature quick-hitting, actionable data-driven analysis for the NFL’s big finale. Let’s dive in!
Julian Edelman, Patriots
Edelman has been Mr. Consistency with the Patriots, averaging a +4.19 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 100% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games. This isn’t surprising for someone who averaged 9.0 targets per game through 12 games with DraftKings’ full PPR scoring.
Overall, he leads all non-quarterbacks in Median Projections in our Models for the Super Bowl.
Robert Woods, Rams
After Cooper Kupp went down, Woods led the Rams with 8.7 targets per game over the final six games of the regular season. He’s also racked up 10 and eight targets over their two playoff games.
If you’re playing in the single-game slates, it’s worth noting that Woods has a negative correlation with Brandin Cooks and Josh Reynolds in our Models, so it might make sense to take a stance on only Woods if you’re choosing to roster him.
Brandin Cooks, Rams
The 7.3 targets per game Cooks averaged in the regular season after Kupp was lost for the season is just behind Woods. However, whereas Woods was negatively correlated with both Cooks and Reynolds, Cooks has shown a slight positive correlation with Reynolds this season.
The tricky part about dissecting the Rams’ receivers is Jared Goff’s struggles against man coverage, which Ian Hartitz discusses here. Sean McVay’s biggest challenge this week will be trying to scheme is playmakers open.
Josh Reynolds, Rams
Averaging 5.88 targets and just 45.62 receiving yards per game in the eight games without Kupp this season, Reynolds carries a relatively low floor and could struggle to put together some fantasy output against the Patriots’ corners.
Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty grade out as Pro Football Focus’ respective No. 1 and No. 14 corners while J.C. Jackson is No. 51.
Chris Hogan, Patriots
Hogan could be worth a dart throw in tournaments with his team-high 13.1 average depth of target (aDOT), per PFF. However, given his high aDOT and lack of targets — 5.5 per game after Josh Gordon was released — Hogan is very much boom-or-bust.
Phillip Dorsett, Patriots
Dorsett’s -2.42 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings is the second-lowest mark on the slate behind only C.J. Anderson.
Dorsett has seen more playing time after Gordon was released and has scored a touchdown in three-straight games, but he has yet to see more than five targets in that timeframe.
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Pictured above: Julian Edelman
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports