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Miocic vs. Ngannou
We talk about undervalued fighters all the time, but there may not be more of a high-profile fighter that is as undervalued as Stipe Miocic. The current reigning heavyweight champion has continued to defy the odds his entire career but still hasn’t gotten the full confidence from the public. The extremely well-rounded firefighter from Cleveland pays no attention to the masses and continues to win despite who they throw in front of him.
Widely known as the best heavyweight of all-time in the UFC, Stipe enjoys leading the charge on being the underdog party-crasher. He will need to prove it yet again, as he walks into the Octagon with the belt, a win already over his opponent and the underdog stamp on his chest yet again.
Francis Ngannou looks more like something out of Marvel Comics than he does an actual fighter. The big man from Cameroon has power of abnormal proportions, and the majority of people who get caught flush by him will most likely not be awake to tell the tale about it.
In their first go-around, it was quite clear that Stipe was the far better fighter and actually had a method to his madness. Ngannou seemed to have only one plan in mind, which was connecting with bone-chilling power. The method is one he leaned on far too many times, and although all it takes is one, it takes more than that against someone like Stipe. He has had time to re-evaluate, improve and right the ship. After three straight wins in devastating fashion to get him back to this point, Ngannou will try to reach for his upgraded game to carry him to the finish line in his quest for UFC gold once and for all.
Miocic
With a record of 20-3, Stipe has 15 by way of KO. Stipe is never going to impress you with one-chin checkers very often, but his ability to put a numerical assault on you in all the right spots is what he excels in. All heavyweights have a dose of power, but not many have the skillsets of someone like Stipe. An extremely polished boxer with good movement and speed, Stipe leans on his ability to enter, throw and make his point, then exit and reposition for the next set of the game.
Stipe will set a pattern for you all the while waiting for the right time to duck under and level change with his Division I caliber wrestling. His last three fights have been against Daniel Cormier in which he won two of. Before that was his five-round decision win against Francis, in which he was able to win that fight handily.
Since his fight against Werdum for the belt, he has won six of seven with five wins by way of KO. In his three career losses, he has only been finished twice by way of KO — once to Daniel Cormier and once to Stefan Struve in 2012. Stipe is durable but can be hit in which I have seen him put on skates many times. Many things about Stipe’s game I really do enjoy watching, but there are a few things that make me uneasy, especially in a matchup like this.
Stipe understands range very well and has a good bead on what is working and what isn’t. His ability to notice things and change his format on the fly is really second to none. In his second fight against DC, he noticed later in the fight that DC was giving him major reactions to body shots, so he kept going back to that well until DC decided to stop the repeated scenes.
However, DC wouldn’t adjust, and Stipe just kept chipping to the body until DC eventually just folded. The beautiful thing about having a well-rounded game is that you can resort to a multitude of paths if one fails, Stipe is extremely intelligent in the cage, and he feels what works at the moment and what doesn’t. Adjustments are a major factor in this game and not many people adjust as Stipe does.
With that said, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows with Stipe. As smart as he is in so many spots, Stipe will tend to get caught up in exchanges that expose his chin a little more than I would like to see. He will square up a little too much, a little too long, and that can be a death sentence. He also tends to get hit with the jab when he is not skirting the cage or moving laterally. He has good head movement, but sometimes just not enough, and he will keep his chin right off the centerline for a little too long. I am expecting that to change in this fight against Francis considering he is coming in a lot leaner and looking to really beat Stipe with speed and movement.
Francis
One has to wonder how much this guy really changed his game up since these two last met. People are shouting from mountaintops how much this guy’s game has evolved since then, but let’s blow up some spots here.
Since his loss to Stipe, Francis has had one fight against Lewis go to a decision that may have been the worst fight in history, and the last four have been first-round KOs. So is it safe to say that we have no idea what he has improved, considering we haven’t seen anything outside of the first round?
You can drill something over and over in the gym, but when you step into the cage, all bets are off, and you tend to go back to who you are. Francis gave us a glimpse into how much it seems he didn’t change all that much in his last fight against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. That was one of the most reckless, unpolished and sloppy exchanges I have actually ever seen Francis throw. So why did he crash the pocket like that?
Well, it’s quite simple really. He saw that he had Rozenstruik on skates, and his instincts came out to revert back to the slugger. Instead of following up with caution, showing us that he can fight with dangerous patience, he was fortunate to not get clipped there. It was the same approach that allowed Stipe to level change so seamlessly in their last fight.
With all that said, Francis has finished every fight that he has won. With a 15-3 record, he has 11 by KO and four by submission. In his three losses, he has never been finished. The one thing that Francis has shown us is that he finally got his confidence back, he has matured, and I am quite sure he has been working on patching up holes since their last fight.
There is no doubt that the camp of Francis knows that no matter what the game plan is, the endpoint will always have its power as the focal point and wireframe of it all, but you can’t rely just on power. I think Francis should have worked on his wrestling, but more importantly his ability to set up his kill shots instead of slinging them right from his hip.
Yes, it’s very true that he only needs one shot to get it done, but setting up the moment and baiting traps is the most efficient way to get there. The scary thing about this fight is that we know who the better fighter is. It is not even a question that Stipe is the better fighter, but if he gets caught sleeping one time, he will officially be waking up in the locker room with no belt and wondering what just happened.
How I see this shaking out:
I do think the beginning of this fight will look a little different. The reason the first fight was so hot and fast in the beginning was not that Stipe was pushing a hard pace but rather due to the fact that Francis was looking to get this done as quickly as possible.
I think Francis will look to conserve a bit and at least try to throw different looks at Stipe. He’ll utilize the jab a little more, be a little more cognizant of the takedown and try to be a bit more strategic. However, what happens when the fight starts traveling down the longer stretches of road, you really don’t know how he will approach things. You also can’t completely re-write the genetic code of a human like Francis.
Making him more into a cardio machine would mean sparing size and strength, and that is really the x-factor of his game. At the end of the day your somatotype is your somatotype, and it takes more oxygen to work, the larger your musculature is. There is just no way around that.
You can game plan to fight with less intent, but you can only push the conditioning envelope so far at that size. I do see Stipe having trouble securing takedowns early on, and I think we will all be watching with one eye open to see if Francis can land that one grenade early on in the fight. If he doesn’t land that shot early, as the time goes on it is just human nature for the power bar to diminish more and more. Even though he carries enough power to shut you off if he is tired, the punches become very telegraphed and labored at that point, giving someone as fluid as Stipe a chance to see things in slower motion.
This fight reminds me much of a George Foreman vs. Muhammad Ali in a sense. Foreman came in as this force that hit with hell-bending power, and what he lacked in skill, he can wash it all away with one punch. With that said the story was being written right before our eyes. Ali strategically let the big man gas his arms out until he could move in and attack. The rope-a-dope was injected. Then Ali would open up in the later rounds and KO the labored fighter, shocking the world once again.
Now I am not encouraging Stipe to rope-a-dope here, but I am encouraging him to keep enough space and movement, allowing Francis to hunt him and begin to tire. I think the new body frame of Stipe will help him stay nimble and sharp, allowing him to float around the cage a little more. It will also help his speed and conditioning to get in and out of spots quicker with longer durations without the drop-off.
I don’t think there is much Stipe needs to change in this fight until he sees if Francis really has changed. We will get many answers in the opening minutes. If Francis is just following, looking to load up, then you will see a carbon copy of their first affair. If Francis starts to time things and tie them together, then Stipe will need to adjust, and things could get interesting. Give me the champ here. The disrespect is real. And still….
The Pick: Stipe
DFS
Stipe Miocic $7,800 (champion)
- 100 + points: 8 of 10
- Covered Current Market Value: 8 of 10
- Hedge: 6
The champ at sub 8K? This is starting to smell like Ali vs. Frazier all over again for me here. I know the dangers of Francis, and I do understand that if he connects, the fight is over. However, when you are giving me arguably the greatest heavyweight champion in history in a fight that he already won once with 140 Fantasy Points, I’ll take my slices. This is a fight that can change in a flash, but skill for skill this is Stipe’s fight to win or lose if he protects his chin.
Francis Ngannou $8,400
- 100 + points: 6 of 10
- Covered Current Market Value: 8 of 10
- Hedge: 4
Francis will always hold value no matter what his price. Forget numbers and strike counts with him. You aren’t going to get those metrics to support this. I say this because in his last 10 fights, the most SS landed was 33 in a five-round loss against Stipe. His numbers are as follows, (9,1,8,11,33,11,13,6,9,6). With that said his fantasy scoring is much different. Eight of his 10 fights have scored over 90 and seven of the 10 broke the 100-point barrier, with 130 being his highest benchmark. So rostering Francis, you are looking for the kill switch. You are just looking for him to land that shot within the first two rounds., which is very possible. You can’t fade him here. You just can’t. It only takes one shot….
How I am Betting:
Whether he wins or loses, you are getting possibly the best heavyweight in UFC history who has beaten Francis handedly already. We have no proof that Francis truly changed. His current win streak all ended in round one. Where is your proof that his cardio and his wrestling has truly changed? You bet Francis, you bet on hope at a slight favorite fight. The educated play is betting the dog that already has the blueprint. If you are backing Stipe, then you take the over 1.5. If you are betting Francis, you probably want the under 1.5. I am going with the champ until proven wrong.
Stipe +115
Over 1.5 (-135)
