Saturday features a two-game NFL slate starting at 4:35 p.m. ET.
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No quarterback has been a better fantasy investment this season than Josh Allen. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.37 on DraftKings, and he’s averaged the most fantasy points per game at the position. He has the ability to rack up fantasy points with his arm and his legs, and that dual-threat skill set gives him a massive ceiling every time he takes the field.
He could have even more upside as a rusher this week vs. the Ravens. Zack Moss will miss the remainder of the playoffs, which leaves Allen is the primary ball-carrier near the goal line. Allen racked up eight rushing touchdowns during the regular season, and he scored a touchdown in his first playoff matchup as well.
Allen’s matchup vs. the Ravens isn’t ideal — they rank ninth in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA — but he still owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.40 on DraftKings. The Ravens’ defense has also gotten worse as the season has progressed. They rank 15th in weighted defensive DVOA, which puts a higher premium on games that happened later in the season.
Jared Goff is the only quarterback that falls in the value tier on this slate, and he’s tough to make a case for. He’s dealing with a thumb injury at the moment and didn’t look quite right last week vs. the Seahawks. Luckily, he was only asked to throw 19 passes since the Rams were in full control.
Los Angeles will probably need to throw more this week vs. the Packers, but there’s no guarantee that Goff will be successful. He has historically been a much better fantasy producer at home than on the road, and the Rams’ implied team total of 19.25 points is the lowest mark on the slate.
Goff will likely be the lowest-owned quarterback on the slate, but he doesn’t carry nearly the same upside as the other three passers.
Lamar Jackson is the easy top choice at quarterback on FanDuel. He’s $800 cheaper than Allen, and his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 100%. Jackson has also been red hot recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games.
Aaron Rodgers will likely be taking home the MVP for his regular-season performance, but his lack of rushing upside does put him a notch below Allen and Jackson from a fantasy perspective. That said, the Packers own the top implied team total on the slate, and Rodgers has historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.31 as a home favorite (per the Trends tool).
Aaron Jones is the most expensive option at running back on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he also leads the position in Pro Trends on both sites. As good as Rodgers has been as a home favorite, Jones has been even better, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.88 on DraftKings in 23 previous occurrences.
That said, Jones does face a very tough task vs. the Rams defense. The Rams rank third in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA, and Jones owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.1. That’s the worst mark at the position.
Still, Jones leads all running backs in our NFL Models in terms of median, ceiling, and floor projections, yet he’s projected for just the third-highest ownership at the position.
With Moss out of the lineup, Devin Singletary will be the highest-owned running back on the slate. He should handle most of the backfield touches for the Bills vs. the Ravens, but it remains to be seen just how many opportunities there will be. Moss and Singletary combined for just 10 carries last week vs. the Colts, and Allen scored the only rushing touchdown.
That said, Singletary should be able to return value thanks to his ability as a receiver. He’s a solid pass-catcher out of the backfield, and the Bills’ RBs combined for seven targets last week.
Cam Akers started the year No. 3 at running back on the Rams’ depth chart but is the clear workhorse now. He’s garnered a massive workload recently, finishing with at least 21 carries in four of his past five games. He’s also finished with at least 22 receiving yards in four of his past five contests, so expect him to be highly-involved this week vs. the Packers.
The Ravens are still employing a committee approach at running back, with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards splitting the carries essentially down the middle last week vs. the Titans. That said, Dobbins has been the more productive player recently, and his $6,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He’s the player to target in this backfield.
Saturday’s slate is loaded with high-end wide receivers, but Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs stand out as the top two options at the position.
Adams has been virtually unstoppable this season, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.06 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. His averages from his past 11 games are insane: 8.4 receptions, 101.9 yards, 1.5 touchdowns per game. His ability to dominate in the red zone separates him from the rest of the top WRs in fantasy, and he led the league with 18 receiving touchdowns despite missing two games.
That said, he faces one of the toughest tests possible for a wide receiver this week. He is expected to be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey, who is arguably the top cornerback in the league. Ramsey finished with the eighth-highest grade at the position per Pro Football Focus, and he has done a fantastic job when matched up against elite receivers this season:
WRs guarded by Jalen Ramsey:
— 7 catches, 57 yards
— 1 catch, 4 yards, TD
— 0 catches
— 1 catch, 42 yards
— 4 catches, 40 yards
— 5 catches, 48 yards
W10, W16, QC
— 4 catches, 44 yards
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) January 13, 2021
None of those receivers are as good as Adams — he finished with the highest PFF grade at the position — but this will be his toughest matchup of the season.
Diggs hasn’t been quite as good as Adams recently, but he’s been pretty close. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.13 on DraftKings over his past 10 games despite scoring just six touchdowns over that time frame. Diggs has scored his fantasy points by racking up yards and catches, and he’s eclipsed 90 receiving yards in eight of his past 10 games.
He has the clear edge of Adams this week from a matchup perspective. Diggs owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4 on DraftKings, and PFF gives him a 33% edge vs. the Ravens. He also stands out as the better pure value on DraftKings given the $1,300 price differential.
Marquise Brown has been a strong value recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 21.8 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. His nine targets last week vs. the Titans was his second-highest total of the season, so he stands out at just $5,200.
The Rams’ WR corps is in an interesting spot vs. the Packers. Robert Woods is expected to square off against Jaire Alexander, who has graded out as the top corner in the league per Pro Football Focus. That would normally result in a larger workload than usual for Cooper Kupp, but he’s currently questionable with a knee injury. Kupp is expected to suit up, but there’s no guarantee that he’s as effective as usual.
With that in mind, rolling the dice on Josh Reynolds might not be the worst idea. He didn’t see a target last week, but he had seen at least six in his previous two contests. His $3,200 salary also comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, so this could be a nice buy-low opportunity.
Stacking the Bills will likely be a popular option on this slate. Diggs will be the primary target with Allen, but Cole Beasley and John Brown will also be included. Beasley has been solid recently and was officially removed from the injury report, while Brown could be an interesting buy-low target after failing to catch a pass last week. Brown also has an insane +0.76 correlation with Allen, so he’s an excellent addition to Bills’ stacks.
Mark Andrews stands out as the clear top tight end on this slate. He leads the position in virtually every category across the board in our NFL Models, including projected Plus/Minus. He also stands out as one of the best pure values on FanDuel, and his matchup vs. the Bills comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.9. Andrews has a chance to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate regardless of position, and he should easily command the most ownership at the TE position.
If you don’t want to pay up for Andrews, Dawson Knox is an appealing pivot. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games, and he scored a touchdown last week vs. the Colts. He’s also priced at just $3,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Robert Tonyan has emerged as one of Rodgers’ favorite targets this season, and he’s displayed a knack for finding the endzone. He’s scored a touchdown in six of his past seven games, and which gives him a decent ceiling for his price.
The Rams have two potential TE options in Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. Both players are dart throws, but both have seen plenty of snaps recently. Higbee stands out as the preferred option on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Pictured above: Davante Adams
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