The PGA TOUR heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious events of the season: The PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.
TPC Sawgrass is a par 72 measuring 7,245 yards and features Bermuda-grass greens. A Pete Dye design, golfers must be patient in attacking the course. With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is genuinely a risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.
THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year, and for good reason: There are 154 in the field, including 49 of the world’s top 50 players. The only exception is Harris English, who isn’t playing due to injury. THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event in which we have never seen a back-to-back champion.
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Don’t forget about the other tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, such as the Trends tool and PGA Correlation Dashboard.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as essential to go after pins and make birdies since scores can get relatively low.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm — $11,100 (1st SG: Approach)
- Mid-range target: Daniel Berger— $8,800 (7th SG: Approach)
- Value target: Russell Knox — $7,100 (2nd SG: Approach)
Good Drives Gained
This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a significant factor, but it’s a bit more of a factor since the date switch to March. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry as far, and the run-out will also be shortened.
Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players gaining on the field with good drives will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm — $11,100 (6th Good Drives Gained)
- Mid-range target: Daniel Berger — $8,800 (5th Good Drives Gained)
- Value target: Martin Laird — $6,800 (1st Good Drives Gained)
Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, featuring Dye’s typical shaved run-off areas and tricky green complexes. Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a significant advantage this week.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm — $11,400 (6th SG: Total at Pete Dye designs
- Mid-range target: Christian Bezuidenhout — $8,200 (5th Total at Pete Dye designs)
- Value target: Brian Harman — $6,900 (1st Total at Pete Dye designs)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Thomas, it is evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm — $11,400 (1st SG: Ball Striking)
- Mid-range target: Will Zalatoris — $8,900 (2nd SG: Ball Striking)
- Value target: Russell Knox — $7,100 (5th SG: Ball Striking)
Strokes Gained: Par 5
Par-5 efficiency is critical at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the par 5s under 575 yards and three under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.
Whoever takes the best advantage of the scoreable par 5s may have the best shot to win.
- High-end target: Patrick Cantlay— $9,900 (1st SG: Par 5)
- Mid-range target: Matt Fitzpatrick— $7,700 (2nd SG: Par 5)
- Value target: Sam Ryder — $6,300 (9th SG: Par 5)
