Every day, people on Twitter ask us some variation of this question: “Who are your top plays?” When people ask that question, we refer them to our Plays of the Week article, which we publish every Wednesday for PGA.
In every PGA Plays of the Week post, several FantasyLabs writers will use our Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one golfer to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments.
Here are today’s plays of the week.
Bryan Mears: Rory McIlroy
This week is unique in that not only are the three best golfers in the world — McIlroy, Jason Day, and Jordan Spieth — all playing, but they’re all coming off of tournament wins. When we have those three in a single tournament, we must find even minor differences between them and recent play is typically an easy variable to analyze. However, all three are coming into the Memorial Tournament in great form.
If I’m taking a stand, McIlroy is the best of the three this week. As mentioned in my article on the most important stats for this week, dominance in Greens in Regulation is huge. Of those three guys, Rory has the best Long-Term GIR at 72.0 percent. In terms of Adjusted Round Score, Rory is second only to Day, with a 67.9.
The primary difference between Rory and Day is their Driving Accuracy marks. This course is long, and both have distance, but it does set up well for ball-strikers. Both McIlroy and Day can be elite in that regard, but Rory’s long-term Driving Accuracy of 62.1 percent is much higher than Day’s mark of 55.7 percent. These three golfers are really close this weekend, but our tools do a good job of helping you sort between them.
Also, check out this week’s PGA Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, with Bryan, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), and PGA Director Colin Davy.
Sean Valukis: Hideki Matsuyama
In a crowded field full of talent, you want to be smart with your lineup decisions on the higher-tier golfers. Aside from the Farmers Insurance Open in January, when he had a late R2 tee time on the South course (where the weather destroyed people’s scores), Hideki has not missed a cut since the middle of last year. His worst finish in his last 12 events has been 35th.
His 66.8 Course Adj Rd Score is second best in the field, and his Recent Adj Round Score is a whole stroke better than that. He hits fairways with consistency, and his Long-Term GIR is second only to McIlroy’s in the $10,000+ tier.
While it was certainly nice having him priced below $10,000 for four of the five previous events, he has proven that he can still provide a strong Plus/Minus even at the higher price, as shown below:
Plus/Minus and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Kelly McCann: Paul Casey
Long-term Adjusted Round Score has been an incredible indicator of success at Muirfield Village, as demonstrated by its mammoth +7.52 Plus/Minus with an incredible 74-percent Consistency. Additionally, golfers with at least four Pro Trends have historically produced a redonkulous +9.00 Plus/Minus with an extremely commendable 75.7-percent Consistency at Muirfield. Finally, at the “House that Jack Built” golfers with a Long-Term Par-4 Score of at least 0.9 have produced a +8.08 Plus/Minus at 72.9-percent Consistency.
Casey checks all these boxes this week. His 69 Adj Rd Score is tied for sixth best in the field and he matches a whopping ten Pro Trends, tied for fourth. (As a point of reference, Spieth, Matt Kuchar, Rickie Fowler, and Bubba Watson are the golfers Casey is tied with.) And Casey’s -0.4 Par-4 Score is eighth best.
Casey has three Top-10 finishes in his last seven starts, and he finished thirteenth at this event in 2014. If I were trying to find Frankenstein this week, I have a sneaking suspicion it just might be him.
Jonathan Cabezas: Dustin Johnson
Dustin Johnson’s game log paints an accurate picture of a golfer who is in great form, with five top-10 finishes in his prior 10 events. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Hong Kong Open in October, so we shouldn’t be surprised by his 94-percent Consistency, which trails only Matt Kuchar’s for golfers with at least two tournaments.
Johnson also has good course history. In eight past appearances at this event, he has made seven cuts and recorded four top-25 finishes.
Although this course doesn’t set up well for bombers, it isn’t set up to hurt them either. Dustin’s field-high 313.7-yard average Long-Term Driving Distance likely helps him hit 67 percent of his greens in regulation. With most DFS players likely to focus on Matsuyama, Day, Spieth, and McIlroy this weekend, Dustin offers comparable Upside and could be the lowest-owned option of the bunch in guaranteed prize pools this weekend.
For more information on the Memorial Tournament, check out Cabay’s Course History and Player Breakdown.
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The Plays of the Week series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Week article every Wednesday for PGA and Euro Tour and a Plays of the Day every weekday for MLB.
