The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to North Carolina this week for the regular season’s final event, as Sedgefield Country Club hosts the Wyndham Championship. The course is a par 70, measuring 7,127 yards with Bermuda grass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Core Picks
Russell Henley ($9,800 DraftKings)
After playing sporadically over the past couple of months, Henley didn’t miss a beat at last week’s Rocket Mortgage, finishing in a tie for 10th place while gaining 8.6 strokes from tee-to-green. He would have contended if not for his putting woes, as he lost 2.3 strokes on the greens.
He returns to a course where he has unfinished business, as he was the 54-hole leader at this event last year before choking in historic fashion, failing to even make the six-man playoff and ultimately finishing T7. Despite the collapse, it was still the second top-10 finish over his past two starts at Sedgefield. With some other decent names in the field this week, we get a decent pricing discount on Henley at just $9,800, making him one of the best values on the slate.
Corey Conners ($9,600 DraftKings)
Conners does not have the course history that Henley does, but he’s one of the premier ball-strikers on the PGA TOUR and has made two-of-three cuts at this event, including a T22 back in 2019. Over his past 48 rounds in this field, Conners ranks No. 4 in SG: Approach and No. 2 in SG: Off-the-Tee. His lack of distance will not hinder him whatsoever on this track, and he should be living out of the fairway.
You could pair Conners with Henley or start your cash game rosters with him, as he’s one of the safest plays on the board and should be on the shortlist to win this event.
Si Woo Kim ($8,800 DraftKings)
Kim is virtually a lock anytime the TOUR makes a stop on either a Pete Dye or Donald Ross design. The latter will be featured this week, and to no one’s surprise, Kim has some of the best course histories in the field, posting a win and three additional top-five finishes across his past five starts. I am not sure why Webb Simpson got the course history salary bump while they left our South Korean friend at just $8,800.
Not only does Kim have the course history, but he’s coming in extremely hot, finishing T14 last week in Detroit on the heels of his T15 at the Open Championship. We know the upside is there, and since DraftKings underpriced him by about $1,000, he should almost assuredly be in your cash game lineups this week.
Joohyung Kim ($8,600 DraftKings)
Moving on to another Kim — and maybe the more talented one — Joohyung, better known as “Tom,” has impressed during his brief stint on the PGA TOUR. The last time he was featured in this article, he was the 40th-ranked player in the world. Since then, he’s gone T26 and T7 at the 3M and Rocket Mortgage and has gotten himself up to No. 34.
Kim tied the course record at Detroit Golf Club on Sunday, shooting a bogey-free 63 while gaining a monstrous 3.51 strokes on approach in the process. Nothing in his game suggests he won’t continue his stellar play this week, putting him firmly in play in all formats.
Brian Harman ($8,300 DraftKings)
Harman is always in play for me when we get to a shorter track with Bermuda greens. Surprisingly, he’s not been great at Sedgefield over the years, missing the cut in five of eight starts. However, he does have two top-10 finishes in that stretch, so when he pops, he really pops.
I am willing to bet he shows up this week after a recent stretch of strong play that saw him finish T6 at the Open Championship and T8 at the Travelers. He’s palatable at just $8,300 with the lack of reliable options in the $7k range this week.
PGA DFS Value Picks
Mark Hubbard ($7,900 DraftKings)
Driving accuracy is the name of the game this week, and very few have been better in that department that Old Mother Hubbard, as he sits 15th in this field in DA across his past 16 rounds. He also ranks third in SG: Approach in the same time frame and has quietly been having a really strong season. He missed the cut last week in Detroit by one stroke due to an ice cold putter.
I think we can give him a pass considering he finished T13, solo third, and solo fourth in his three prior starts. In five starts at this event he’s made three of five cuts with a pair of top-25 finishes. He is virtually the same price as last week in a field with less top-end talent, and I like him quite a bit to bounce back in this spot.
Adam Svensson ($7,600 DraftKings)
Svensson is an absolute scoring machine, ranking No. 1 in birdies made in this field over his past 36 rounds. In his lone start at Sedgefield he finished T31 back in 2019, however, he shot a second round 61 and came close to flirting with a 59. Something about this course obviously caught his eye, and his 1.79 SG: Tee-to-Green average per round at Sedgefield ranks him fourth in this field behind Kim, Simpson, and Sungjae Im.
He’s made eight of his past nine cuts and has top-25 finishes in five of his past six, including a T6 at the Barbasol. In a range kind of devoid of reliable options, I like Svensson quite a bit here.
Aaron Rai ($7,200 DraftKings)
We haven’t seen Rai since the Scotland swing, where he missed the cut in both events, albeit as an alternate at the Open Championship after Justin Rose withdrew. Before that, he had been playing great golf, making eight of his previous nine cuts with four top-26 finishes.
Rai is extremely accurate off-the-tee and is pretty good with a putter in his hands, which happens to be a recipe for success at Sedgefield. His $7,200 price tag is not reflective of his talent level in this field, and he fits in virtually any build.