GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks and Conviction Plays for the Genesis Scottish Open

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Jul 12, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to overseas to North Berwick, Scotland, for the Genesis Scottish Open. The Renaissance Club Club will be the host and measures as a 7,237-yard par 70 with Fescue greens.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Conviction Plays

Wyndham Clark ($9,000 DraftKings)

At first glance, it feels weird paying $9,000 for Clark, but then you remember he’s the reigning U.S. Open champ and is having a breakout season. DraftKings did a remarkable job with the pricing this week, so we are pretty desperate to find guys above $9,000 who can provide value for the price. I believe Clark is just that, as I don’t see any difference between him, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, or Shane Lowry this week.

He played this event last season and finished T16, which was really before he became the grown-ass man that he is now. The Renaissance Club rewards long, accurate drivers of the golf ball, and Clark fits that mold to a T.

Wyndy ranks seventh in this field in SG: Total across his past 24 rounds and is getting it done in every area, ranking third in putting, 13th on approach, and 12th from tee-to-green.

I’m out of superlatives to describe him.

Corey Conners ($8,000 DraftKings)

Conners’ price is the other that really stood out to me this week. He always gets pushed down in fields like this, but then you look at guys he’s priced around, and it’s comical. He’s $100 more than Alex Smalley, $200 more than Aaron Rai, and $300 more than Rasmus Hojgaard. I understand that DraftKings can’t make everyone who’s good at golf $8,500 or more, but give me a break here. Conners is not in the same stratosphere as any of those three guys I just mentioned in terms of talent.

He’s coming off a T29 at the Travelers, where gained 6.6 strokes on approach and 2.6 off-the-tee. His ball-striking is dialed in, and he’s too easy of a click at this price. This will also be his third trip to Scotland after missing and making a cut in his previous two trips. Conners already won an event this season a week before a major when he took down the Valero in April, and it would not shock me to see him in contention this week.

Additional PGA DFS Cash/GPP Thoughts

Starting at the top, I believe Scottie Scheffler is finally priced appropriately this week at $11,600, and I will be fading him at this price. He’s a great play, obviously, but it’s just too hard to fill out a roster you like when you start with someone that high. Especially when you can get Patrick Cantlay for $1,400 less. It’s just too wide of a gap.

Cantlay is arguably the best play on the board this week, and if I end up starting with a $9,500+ golfer on my roster this week, it will be him. He’s got five top-10 finishes across his past 10 starts, and somehow it still feels like he’s having a down season. His rolling numbers are stellar as well, as he ranks fifth in SG: Ball-Striking, 14th in putting, and sixth in SG: Total all over his past 24 rounds. He played this event last year and finished T4 as well, to put some icing on the cake. No need to overthink it whatsoever, and I much prefer him on tight builds to Xander Schauffele, despite the latter being the defending champ.

I do like Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland, but at that point, you’re only a few hundred off Cantlay, so I just prefer getting to him. Dropping down, Shane Lowry is my second favorite play in this range behind Wyndham. We are firmly entering #LowrySZN, as he always turns it on when we get close to the Open Championship. He’s never seen the Renaissance Club before, but there are not many guys I trust more on links setups more than Shane O’ Mac. He’s posted four top 20s over his past five starts and has been strong in all areas during this time frame.

The $8,000 range is where I will be living this week, as there are just too many professionals who profile well in this spot. Max Homa has been a bit hit-or-miss of late, but he struck it really well at the Rocket Mortgage in his last start and also finished T16 here last year. I think he’s an extremely strong play at $8,800. He can be an absolute killer when he’s on, and that cannot be discounted. The fact that he’s cheaper than MIN WOO LEE is an absolute travesty.

Moving down, we have the trio of Sam Burns, Ludvig Aberg, and Adam Scott in the low $8,000 range. All three are looking strong to me, in addition to Corey Conners. Burns has played this event twice and made the cut both times, including a T18 two years ago. He’s always priced in this low $8,000 range in these events, and more often than not, you look up, and he’s T18 heading into the weekend. This would certainly be the week to play him, with many likely to jam in studs at the top and round out their rosters with Yannik Paul.

Adam Scott has missed legit one cut this entire season and is just a grizzled veteran who makes his money at events like this. He’s been playing links golf since before I was born (1992), and his recent form has been impeccable. Our Aussie friend is almost automatic at this price, actually, and could have been a conviction play.

Finally, we have 23-year-old Rory, AKA Ludvig Van Beethoven Aberg. I am not one to ever recommend playing shiny new toys like this, but this Swede is simply built differently. It truly seems like he’s hitting 330 yards out in the middle of the fairway on every hole. Aberg is coming off his first-career top-five finish last week at the John Deere, where he gained 7.7 strokes ball-striking. He’s already posted four top-25 finishes in six career PGA TOUR starts and has barely scratched the surface of his talent. I do slightly worry about him hopping on a plane from Silvis, Illinois, to Scotland in such a short period of time, but he really feels undeniable right now. We’re gonna look back in like six months wondering how he was ever $8,200.

The $7,000 range is really easy to me. There are three PGA players who stand out above the rest, and they are Gary Woodland, Sahith Theegala, and Killa Keith Mitchell. Woodland is having a really strong bounce-back season and ranks fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green and 10th in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 24 rounds. He also played the Renaissance Club last year and finished T30. Another grizzled pro who should have no problem making the weekend at $7,600.

Theegala has been trying hard recently to miss his second cut of the season, but he just always finds a way to get through. On the year, he’s 17-for-18 in this department. It’s rarely pretty, as he really cannot hit the ball straight whatsoever, but he always gets the job done. We know the upside is there based on his seven top-10s already this year, and it’s just a matter of time before he posts his eighth. I like him less than Woodland, but have no problem jamming in both if you want to play multiple guys above $9,000.

Finally, we have Keith Mitchell. I play this guy all the time, and he never does anything, so I really don’t know why I keep doing this to myself. Having said that, he’s an established PGA TOUR winner who’s literally the same price as Jordan L. Smith and Thorbjorn Olesen. In no universe should this ever be the case. Mitchell is one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world and will have a nice edge due to his distance off the tee this week. He played this event last year as well and finished T36. On the year, Mitchell is 15-for-19 in making the cut, and I trust him with my life to find the weekend in this spot at $7,200.

Speed round: a few other guys who I could be talked into are Doug Ghim, Cameron Davis, Andrew Putnam, and if you absolutely HAD to, Brandon Wu.

Ghim has been on fire and posted another top-30 last week at the John Deere. His ball-striking has been incredible lately; he finished T16 here a year ago.

As Min Woo Lee could attest, Australians tend to play well at this event for some reason, and Cam Davis is a monster ball-striker. Putnam has been getting it done all season for us, while Brandon Wu really let me down in Detroit but always pops when he’s not in America for some reason. He finished T6 here last year. I don’t really get it, but I don’t argue with facts.

That’s all I got this week. If you like this content, please follow me on Twitter, as I usually post late-week thoughts on the slate.

Best of luck this week!

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