FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each week, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players for the week’s PGA DFS slate.
For this special Open Championship week, we are putting out three separate Data Dives, one for each salary tier. Part 1 focuses on players $6,900 and lower (the “value plays”). Part 2 focuses on the golfers priced between $7,000 and $8,900. Part 3 on Wednesday will look at golfers priced $9,000 and higher.
Long-Term Metrics
Three of the last four Claret Jug winners can be found in the Mid-Priced Tier: Zach Johnson (2015), Phil Mickelson (2013) and Ernie Els (2012). Furthermore, Bubba Watson, Jim Furyk, Graeme McDowell, Martin Kaymer and Charl Schwartzel are additional Major Champions found in this pricing tier.
Adjusted Round Score: 68.6, Bubba Watson & Matt Kuchar
Watson and Kuchar are tied with an identical Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) of 68.6, the fourth-best mark in the field.
Watson’s 69.5 percent LT Greens in Regulation (GIR) is tied for 14th in the field, while his 312.1-yard LT Driving Distance (DD) is good enough for second overall.
Watson is playing in his eighth Open Championship. His best finish is T23 in 2012.
Kuchar does things a bit differently, ranking 14th overall in LT Scrambling (SC) at 61.4 percent and 24th in LT Driving Accuracy (DA) at 64.4 percent.
Kuchar’s 67.6 Recent Adj Rd Score of 67.6 is a full stroke improvement over his LT average. He is on fire with four top-five finishes and a sixth-place finish in his last six starts.
Kuchar is playing in his 12th Open Championship. His best finish is T9 in 2012.
Greens in Regulation: 73.1%, Nicolas Colsaerts
If you aren’t a complete degenerate and weren’t watching the Scottish Open on Sunday then you missed Colsaerts go absolutely ham on the back nine in the final round, vaulting him into a T3 for the tournament and qualifying him for this Open Championship.
Colsaerts’ 73.1 percent LT GIR is best in the mid-priced tier and second-best overall in the field. His 305.8-yard LT DD is 11th in the field, and he’s one of only five golfers with a LT DD average above 300 yards and a LT GIR score of 70 percent or better.
Mid-priced golfers with comparable LT metrics have previously generated a +6.05 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Colsaerts is playing in his fifth Open Championship. His best finish is T7 in 2012. He missed the cut or withdrew in his other three starts.
Driving Accuracy: 70.1%, Matthew Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick is an accuracy lover’s dream. His 70.1 percent LT DA is fifth-best in the field and he’s one of only six golfers with a percentage of 70 or better. Fitzpatrick’s LT GIR of 72.6 percent is not only the second-best mark in the mid-priced tier but also the fourth-best in the entire field.
Mid-priced players with similar LT DA and GIR percentages have traditionally recorded a +4.03 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
This will be Fitzpatrick’s second Open Championship. He finished T44 in 2013 as an 18-year-old amateur.
Scrambling: 61.9%, Patrick Reed
Reed’s 61.9 percent LT SC is the best among mid-priced golfers and 10th-best in the field.
He also carries the ninth LT Adj Rd Score in the field at 69.1 and the fourth LT Putts Per Round (PPR) at 28.3.
Reed is playing in his third Open Championship. His best finish is T20 in 2015. He finished 10th at the Scottish Open last week.
Birdies Per Tournament: 15.1, Hideki Matsuyama
The aforementioned Watson actually is the mid-priced LT Birdie king with a 15.4 average, but Matsuyama is right behind him with the ninth-best LT Birdie average in the field.
In addition, Matsuyama’s 68.7 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for fifth in the field. Players in this price range with comparable LT Birdie averages and LT Adj Rd Scores have historically provided a +2.50 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Hideki has been shaky recently, missing two of his last three cuts and seeing his Recent Adj Rd Score balloon up to 71.4.
Matsuyama is playing in his fourth Open Championship. His best finish is T6 in 2013. He has made the cut in all three of his previous attempts.
Recent Metrics
Last year’s Open Championship runner-up Mark Leishman can be found in the mid-priced tier. Actually, 2015 was the second of back-to-back top-five-finishes in the Open Championship for Leishman, who finished T5 in 2014.
Adjusted Round Score: 67.3, Zach Johnson
The reigning Champion Golfer of the Year, Johnson is coming in hot. His 67.3 Recent Adj Rd Score is fourth in the field.
Both his 65.8 percent Recent SC mark and his 27.3 Recent PPR are the best in this pricing tier and rank sixth and fifth in the field respectively.
Mid-priced golfers with parallel recent metrics have delivered a +2.40 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 55.1 percent Consistency.
Johnson is playing in his 13th Open Championship. Including his win last year, he has three top-10 finishes in his last four Open starts.
Greens in Regulation: 72.9%, Andy Sullivan
It’s actually the previously highlighted Colsaerts who has the best Recent GIR in this pricing tier at 76 percent.
Sullivan’s 72.9 percent Recent GIR is good enough for second in this tier and ninth overall. Sullivan also shines in Recent DA, where his 69.7 percent mark is the best in this pricing tier and fifth overall.
Andy’s 68.2 Recent Adj Rd Score is 11th overall. He finished T6 at the Scottish Open last week and fifth at the Open de France the week prior.
This will be Sullivan’s second Open Championship. He finished T30 last year.
Scrambling: 62.9%, Jason Dufner
As indicated previously, Zach Johnson holds the best Recent SC mark in this pricing tier, but Dufner’s 62.9 percent is second in the tier and 11th in the field.
Dufner has added some distance off the tee, and his 304.9-yard Recent DD is 13th in the field. His 69.5 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for 13th overall.
Be warned that mid-priced players with comparable recent metrics have not fared well previously, producing a -2.53 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Dufner is playing in his seventh Open Championship. His best finish is T26 in 2013.
Birdies Per Tournament: 19.5, Charl Schwartzel
Schwartzel is draining recent birdies like it’s his job, oh wait, it is his job. His 19.5 Recent Birdie Average is the best in the entire field and 1.5 Birdies more than the red-hot Dustin Johnson’s second-best mark.
Charl’s 68 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for ninth in the field. He has a seventh-place and fifth-place finish in his last two starts.
Golfers in this pricing tier with comparable Recent Birdie averages and Adj Rd Scores have historically crushed value with a +6.89 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Schwartzel is playing in his 12th Open Championship. His best finish is T7 in 2014.
Odds To Win: 2.4%, Phil Mickelson
Mickelson’s current 2.4 percent Odds to Win are the best among mid-priced golfers and ninth-best in the field.
Mickelson’s 69 LT Adj Rd Score is eighth in the field and his 14.1 LT Birdie Average is 16th overall.
Golfers in this pricing tier with equivalent Odds to Win have historically provided a +4.49 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 59.3 percent Consistency.
Mickelson is playing in his 23rd Open Championship. He won the event in 2013 and finished third here at Royal Tr0on in 2004.
Note: Our Player Models update in real time to give subscribers the most accurate information available. Vegas Odds to Win for Phil Mickelson and other golfers may change after this article is published.
Bonus
Because it’s the MLB All-Star Break, so what the hell else are you going to read?
Pro Trends: 9, Bubba Watson and Zach Johnson
Both players have been highlighted previously in this article and both come in with nine Pro Trends.
Bubba’s most profitable Pro Trend is “Long-Term Driving Distance Score at Least 75,” historically good for a +2.48 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Zach’s most profitable Pro Trend is “Long-Term Birdie Score at Least 65,” traditionally providing a +2.22 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Players in this pricing tier with nine Pro Trends have previously produced a modest +0.53 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 55.6 percent Consistency.
