Another week, another TPC course: This time it’s TPC Deere Run, home of the John Deere Classic. Built along Rock River in Silvis, Illinois, the D.A. Weibring design is known for its scenic views, elevation changes, and low scores. Paul Goydos shot a 59 here the same day back-to-back-to-back champion, Steve Stricker, shot a 60. The last five winners here have averaged a final score of 20.6 under par, with four of the five being at 20 under or better. Rounds of 61 or 62 here are not uncommon.
In 2010, Stricker finished at 26 under par, and he will look to become the first-ever four-time champion at the John Deere. I would expect Stricker to be chalky this week. FantasyLabs provides ownership projections in our Models, and Pro Subscribers will be able to review Steve’s ownership across tournaments of various stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after contests lock.
TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 that measures 7,268 yards with four Par 3 holes and three Par 5 holes. If history is any indication, scores will get low this week, and you’ll need golfers making a ton of birdies on your roster if you hope to have a shot at winning a guaranteed prize pool (GPP).
Per PGATour.com, three holes on the front nine have a birdie percentage of at least 20 percent, including the 561-yard Par 5 second hole, which has yielded a ridiculous 46 percent birdie percentage. Other than the tough (4.161 scoring average) 503-yard Par 4 ninth hole, which has induced 22 percent bogeys, the front nine at Deere Run is smooth sailing.
The back nine is even friendlier: Five of the nine holes have allowed a birdie percentage of at least 20 percent, and both the 361-yard Par 4 fourteenth hole and 569-yard Par 5 seventeenth hole have birdie percentages of 35 percent or better. Only the 476-yard Par 4 eighteenth hole bites back: It has produced a 20 percent bogey percentage and a 4.163 scoring average.
Metrics To Remember
As our baseline: All courses on the PGA Tour have allowed an average of 50.40 DraftKings points with a -0.57 Plus/Minus and 49.1 percent Consistency Rating (per our PGA Trends tool). Golfers at TPC Deere Run have historically averaged 54.92 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) with a +5.07 Plus/Minus and 49.1 percent Consistency. As noted previously, the course allows players to score.
Here is how the top 20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at Deere Run:
- Adj Rd Score: +8.17
- Driving Distance (DD): +9.15
- Driving Accuracy (DA): +5.98
- Adjusted Putts Per Round (PPR): +6.94
- Scrambling (SC): +8.81
- Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): +14.73
It’s a freaking party at Deere Run — virtually every Long-Term (LT) metric produces serious value. Most notably, LT Adj PPR — usually a negative metric — becomes valuable. Putting is typical such a noisy metric that I ignore it completely. However, at a course like Deere Run, where players crush Greens in Regulation and the tournament turns into somewhat of a putting contest, a positive PPR becomes intriguing. (By the way, I use the word intriguing more than Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman uses the word “probably.”) [Editor’s Note: Probably not.] Unsurprisingly, LT Adj Bird Avg generates extreme value at Deere Run.
- Adj Rd Score: +7.67
- GIR: +3.29
- DD: +3.20
- SC: +9.38
- Adj Bird Avg: +8.37
Recent SC, Adj Bird Avg, and Adj Rd Score have all provided consistent value and should not be ignored when creating lineups this week.
A Few Names to Remember
Among golfers with at least three starts at the Deere Run in our database, Johnson Wagner has perfect Consistency and has averaged a ludicrous 110.33 DraftKings PPT with a redonkulous +61.71 Plus/Minus. Wagner hasn’t scored fewer than 105 DraftKings points in his last three trips here! The defending champion, Ryan Moore has also been an incredible value with his +46.55 Plus/Minus in three events, and he is priced lower on DraftKings ($9,200) than he has been in the past three years.
Adam Levitan created a course history model, which I’ve adjusted slightly. Zach Johnson is the model’s top golfer and this week’s Levitanimal. Per PGATour.com, Johnson — who has six top-three finishes here in his last eight starts — has shot a combined 133 under par in his last eight Deere Run appearances. Johnson (Zach) is tied with the aforementioned Johnson (Wagner) with a field-best 68.1 Course Adj Rd Score.
Outside of DFS, Sam Saunders currently has +27,500 moneyline odds in the prop markets to win the tournament. While he’s not likely to win, he’s a much better fit for this course than other golfers with similar moneyline odds. Additionally, his 28.0 Recent Adj PPR is tied for 11th, and his 70.6 Recent DA percentage ranks 12th in the field.