The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Elias Lindholm ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
The Calgary Flames are building momentum and they’ll be looking to knock the Metropolitan-leading New York Rangers off their pedestal on Monday night.
The line combination of Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau, and Matthew Tkachuk is leading their Flames resurgence, combining for 14 points through their first four games. Lindholm leads the team with six goals and is finding the back of the net under all circumstances. The 26-year-old has one powerplay, one shorthanded and two game-winning goals, highlighting his versatility and dependability in the Flames lineup. Lindholm has strong underlying metrics which support sustained output.
Lindholm and the Flames are running hot, and he’s our top play at center.
Top Value
Lars Eller ($3,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
Scoring has not been a problem for the Capitals this year. The Caps have 19 goals through five games, going over the total in two of their past three.
Lars Eller has only contributed one assist so far this season, but his advanced metrics and the FantasyLabs model suggest that his fantasy value is not accurately reflected in his DFS salaries. Eller has modest median projections, but his fantasy ceiling has him on the edge of upper-tier production. The veteran center is used primarily in a checking role, but has created 26 scoring and nine high-danger chances at five-on-five this season. In his role, Eller also has a responsibility to fill shooting lanes, and he leads forwards with five blocks this season because of it.
One way or another, Eller continues to make solid fantasy contributions to the Capitals but he remains an undervalued fantasy contributor.
Wing
Top Play
Andrei Svechnikov ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Andrei Svechnikov leads the Carolina Hurricanes in scoring this season, and he gets an ideal matchup against Jack Campbell and the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Maple Leafs are fresh off a 7-1 defeat at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins and continue to have breakdowns in their own end. Toronto has given up 15 or more high-danger chances in three of their past five games, resulting in seven high-danger goals against. The Hurricanes have exploited their opponents for 49 scoring and 21 high-danger opportunities with Svechnikov on the ice, and they’ll have more opportunity for the same against the Leafs.
The Canes deploy Svechnikov in the offensive zone 74.1% of the time. That’s where Svechnikov does his damage and that’s why he rates so highly in our projections.
Top Value
Denis Gurianov ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Denis Gurianov isn’t a name that immediately comes to mind when thinking of productive fantasy wingers, but he’s slowly making a name for himself.
Gurianov skates on the Dallas Stars’ top line with Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski, and they have strong relative metrics across all strengths. The Stars have out-chanced opponents in scoring chances at a 53.1% rate and 53.3% in high-danger chances with Gurianov on the ice. The fifth-year winger spends time on the Stars’ second powerplay unit and has attempted 13 shots through five games, but has not yet found the back of the net.
The FantasyLabs median projections have Gurianov as a strong mid-range option at a low salary.
Defense
Top Play
Justin Faulk ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
Defensive point production is immensely important in today’s NHL and the St. Louis Blues have a productive top-four. Included in that is Justin Faulk, who leads the team in scoring among defensemen.
Faulk has two goals and two assists through four games, with two of those points coming with the man advantage. He also gets an ideal matchup with the Los Angeles Kings on Monday, who continue to give up quality chances to their opponents. The Kings have given up 10 or more high-danger chances in three of five games, and haven’t allowed fewer than nine in a game this season. That suits Faulk’s game, as the Blues have attempted 21 high-danger chances with their veteran defenseman on the ice this season.
The Blues offense is operating efficiently to start the season, and Faulk has been a primary defensive contributor. He’s our top play on tonight’s slate.
Top Value
Esa Lindell ($4,200 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Stars have one of the best defensive corps in the NHL and that’s driving the price on Esa Lindell down, despite an elite fantasy ceiling.
Lindell is a top-tier option on DFS slates, despite getting most of his starts in the defensive zone. So far this season, Lindell has posted a 43.0% Corsi rating, 47.9% shots-for percentage, and 44.9% scoring chances-for percentage. At first glance, the metrics are below average, however, relative to the 35.6% offensive zone starts he gets, those are impressive metrics. Lindell leads all Stars players in penalty killing time and is one of the team leaders in blocked shots.
Our projections rate Lindell in the upper-tier and our analysis supports that he’s one of the best low-cost options available.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Spencer Knight ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
Few goalies can do what Spencer Knight has done since he came into the league.
Knight is undefeated through his first five regular-season games, recording a 2.01 goals-against average and 93.1% save percentage, including stopping 96.8% of shots in his first start this season. Knight has been great against high-danger chances, stopping 90.9% at even strength. The team playing in front of him deserves some credit too though. The Florida Panthers limited the Tampa Bay Lightning to 20 scoring chances and eight quality chances in Knight’s lone start this season.
The Panthers are in an even better start tonight, getting a home-ice matchup with the emaciated Arizona Coyotes. Knight will continue to do Knight things, making him our top play in net.
Top Value
Craig Anderson ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
After two great starts to begin the year, Craig Anderson had a rough go in his last start. The Buffalo Sabres have a home date with the Tampa Bay Lightning, but Anderson’s fantasy ceiling rates highly in our projections.
Anderson is stopping 93.3% of shots this season, including 94.1% on the penalty kill. The defending champs have earned a reputation for being an offensively gifted team, but that’s not reflected in their metrics this season. Tampa has attempted eight or fewer high-danger chances and 20 or fewer scoring chances at five-on-five in three of their five games this season. The Sabres have also been effective at limiting their opponents this season, holding four of five of their opponents to 16 or fewer scoring opportunities in a game and nine or fewer high-danger chances in three of five.
All of which bodes well for Anderson, making him our top value among goalies.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
One team that sets up better than the others on today’s slate is the Florida Panthers. The Panthers (a -400 favorite) get an ideal matchup against the Coyotes, which was outlined in Knight’s projections. Insulating their goaltender with skilled skaters projects as one of the best lineups available.
Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe skate on the Panthers’ top line and both feature on a different powerplay unit. The dynamic duo has combined for 10 points, two game-winning goals, 28 high-danger chances, and 19 shots through the team’s first five games. They will have ample opportunity against a Coyotes team that has given up 11 or more high-danger chances in three of their past four. That tandem will be complemented by defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who has also recorded five points, two of which have come on the powerplay.
All things considered, the Panthers’ stack will thrive against the Coyotes, and that’s reflected in our lineup builder, which rates this combination better than most.
