Every week in Three Breakout Players we highlight a few inexpensive players on the verge of earth-shattering fantasy football breakouts. Or less ambitiously, we discuss players set up to exceed production expectations at low ownership. This week we focus on two rookie running backs rapidly climbing their depth charts and one wide receiver thrust into a prominent role on one of the NFL’s signature high-volume passing offenses.
Elijah McGuire, Jets RB: $4,600 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Small school mega-producer Elijah McGuire finished his college career as the Sun Belt Conference all-time leader in yards from scrimmage (5,695) and touchdowns (52). At 5’9″ and 214 pounds, McGuire is a more impressive size-adjusted athlete than teammate Bilal Powell, evidenced by a superior 101.6 (67th percentile) Speed Score and a 121.2 (64th percentile) Burst Score. Beyond the most widely adopted advanced metrics such as dominator rating and SPARQ-x score, McGuire’s 15.4 percent (93rd percentile) college target share indicates that he is a more complete back than the smaller, less explosive Powell.
And now the day has arrived for McGuire to demonstrate his all-terrain skill set in a featured back role. Rather than shift Powell into a bell cow role after Matt Forte’s toe injury, the Jets funneled Forte’s opportunity share to McGuire. In Weeks 4-5, McGuire proved to be more than an opportunity-fueled fantasy asset, averaging 1.0 yard per touch more than Powell.
Heading into Week 6, Forte is expected to play but Powell is expected to be out. McGuire is shaping up to be the featured back against New England with Powell nursing a strained calf. New York is a +9.5 home underdog this week and could have a negative game script for much of the contest. The Jets could look to lean on McGuire as a receiver against a Patriots team allowing the most receiving yards (372), touchdowns (3), and PPR fantasy points per game (31.0) to opposing running backs.
Marlon Mack, Colts RB: $4,300 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
At 5’11” and 213 pounds, Marlon Mack possess a tantalizing combination of speed and explosion at the running back position, evidenced by his 103.9 (73rd percentile) Speed Score, and a 122.9 (71st percentile) Burst Score. Productive in all phases at South Florida, Mack achieved a 29.8 percent (61st percentile) dominator rating as a junior and was featured in the passing game, eclipsing a 10.9 percent (76th percentile) target share. Profiling as an every-down bell-cow running back, Mack’s top comparables in the PlayerProfiler database include the following:
- Todd Gurley
- Melvin Gordon
- Marshawn Lynch
- Ryan Mathews
Last week Mack returned from a two-game absence due to a shoulder injury and immediately jump-started the Colts rushing attack. Mack ripped off 91 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries, catching his only target for two yards. The Colts are in need of offensive firepower, and Mack has earned a larger role per head coach Chuck Pagano, as his play has not only forced a timeshare but also encouraged the team to transition away from the 34-year-old Frank Gore.
Mack has been electric on limited work thus far. While he has seen just 25 carries this season, four went for at least 15 yards. Furthermore, in just three games played, Mack is tied with Robert Turbin for the team lead with three goal-line carries. Gore has zero.
This week Indianapolis travels to Tennessee, which is a somewhat neutral matchup for the run game. Titans have given up 22.5 (20th) DraftKings and 20.2 (16th) FanDuel points per game. Without Andrew Luck, the Colts are rushing 30 (seventh) times per game, up from 18th in 2016. With Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (hamstring) uncertain, the Colts could find themselves in a competitive game that will allow them to stay true to their early-season run-heavy system, giving Mack a chance to showcase his big-play ability.
Roger Lewis, Giants WR: $3,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Just when you thought it couldn’t get worse for the 0-5 Giants, the team lost wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall to ankle injuries. Hitting the ankle trifecta, Sterling Shepard also injured his ankle in Week 5 and is out for Week 6 as the Giants face the Broncos on Sunday Night Football. Enter Roger Lewis, the last healthy wide receiver left standing for a Giants team calling 43 pass passes per game (second in the NFL).
Lewis is not an explosive athlete, evidenced by an 87.0 (fifth percentile) SPARQ-x score, but he was a college producer. A highly regarded high school recruit who committed to Ohio State before off the field issues delayed his college career, Lewis played at Bowling Green for two years before entering the NFL, posting 1,544 yards and 16 touchdowns in his final college season. Based on his production and athleticism, Lewis compares closely to another prolific Mid-American Conference wide receiver in Willie Snead.
While Lewis has received just 11 targets on the season, he has demonstrated high efficiency and big-play ability, including a dramatic 29-yard touchdown last week.
| Roger Lewis 2017 Efficiency Metrics | ||
| Yards Per Target | 9.3 | #16 |
| Air Yards Per Target | 7.9 | #7 |
| Production Premium | +56.8 | #6 |
| Target Premium | +38.5% | #10 |
The Giants are a +11.5 underdogs as they travel to Denver for what is a subpar matchup for the passing game. Still, the Giants will likely need to throw, and the pass-heavy game script should benefit Lewis, who could see double-digit targets.
Good luck this week, and be sure to visit our suite of Tools to identify other breakout players.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
