Two of the NFL’s least exciting offenses face off this Sunday in an affair that has a 42.5 point over/under. Baltimore is currently a seven-point road favorite with an implied Vegas total of 24.75 points.
Ravens
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Joe Flacco
In 2015, before going down with an ACL tear, Flacco was on pace to throw for 4,465 yards, which would have been the highest yardage total of his career. Flacco finished Week 1 with a 67.6 percent completion rate, 258 yards passing, and a touchdown in a game that the Ravens took control of early. This week, Flacco gets to face off with a divisional opponent that just surrendered 278 yards and two touchdowns to rookie Carson Wentz.
Encouragingly, the Browns did allow the fourth-highest Opponent Plus/Minus to quarterbacks in 2015, and Flacco currently is the ninth-rated FanDuel quarterback in the CSURAM88 Model. Yet even with his good rating, Flacco is expected by the FantasyLabs ownership projections to be rostered only two to four percent.
RB – Terrance West
West out-carried Justin Forsett 13 to 11 and oddly enough seems to be the lead back in Baltimore. However, deciding who to start in Baltimore’s backfield is going to be maddening till we get more clarification. With that being said, West has an impressive 87 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings for Week 2, and if you are into narrative street takes . . . this is a revenge game against Cleveland.
RB – Justin Forsett
Forsett looks to be the favorite for passing work in Baltimore, leading Ravens running backs in targets and passing snaps. If Javorius Allen is inactive again in Week 2, Forsett has some points-per-reception appeal with his 90 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Ultimately, I would struggle to roster any of the Baltimore backs as anything more than a contrarian tournament-play until the roles in the backfield become solidified.
WR – Mike Wallace
In Wallace’s first game back in the AFC North he reeled in a 66-yard touchdown pass from Flacco. Much like the Ravens running backs, the wide receivers are going to be hard to pinpoint. Tentatively, Wallace right now looks like the most likely touchdown producer. After losing Torrey Smith in 2015, this offense badly lacked a deep threat, but Wallace has quickly taken over the role. Wallace isn’t especially exciting, but he is facing a Browns defense that is allowing +2 Opponent Plus/Minus to wide receivers.
WR – Steve Smith
Steve Smith led the Ravens in targets, but unfortunately that did not translate to very much production. Smith caught five of his nine targets for a measly 19 yards. He did not look like his old self at all, and he finished as PFF’s 94th overall receiver after Week 1. Luckily, according to the FantasyLabs Matchups tool, Smith will face off with Jamar Taylor, who finished Week 1 with a 45.2 coverage rating according to PFF.
WR – Kamar Aiken
Aiken ran a high percentage of his routes against the Bills weakest corner in Week 1 but was still only targeted twice on Sunday. It looks like the Ravens receiving group is as messy as its running backs and Aiken is third on the totem pole.
TE – Dennis Pitta
Pitta outsnapped Crockett Gillmore 56 to 30 and looks to be the tight end to own in Baltimore. Unfortunately, that role only earned him four targets. If Pitta’s usage increases this week, he could be a steal at his 74 percent FanDuel Bargain Rating. However, it seems much more likely that tight end production will be difficult to predict in this offense.
Cleveland Browns
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Josh McCown
One of the most interesting decisions on this slate is whether to roster McCown in cash games. He is minimum-priced on DraftKings and boasts a Bargain Rating of 69 percent on FanDuel. McCown abused the Ravens both times he faced them in 2015, averaging 28.43 points per game.
The Ravens defense is practically the same one that he faced last year and should make McCown a viable and cheap quarterback target. McCown is currently the top-rated FanDuel quarterback in the Levitan Player Model.
RB – Isaiah Crowell
The positive for Crowell is that he averaged 5.2 yards per carry in Week 1. The negative for Crowell is that he only received 12 carries and two targets. Since Crowell is not going to see much passing work as long as Duke Johnson is on the team, he is someone to avoid against good rushing defenses.
In Week 1, the Ravens held LeSean McCoy to 3.6 yards per carry and would not be a defense to target with Crow.
RB – Duke Johnson
Whereas Crowell is the running back to fade against stout rushing defenses, Duke is the back to target in these matchups. Brandon Williams, a 2014 and 2015 standout, will be matched up as the nose tackle for the Ravens against PFF’s 29th-ranked center, Cameron Erving, and he should be able to disrupt the Browns running game. As the clear passing back for the Browns, Duke saw five targets against the Eagles last week.
WR – Terrelle Pryor
While Josh Gordon is suspended, Pryor, has established himself as the top wide receiver in Cleveland. He started opposite Corey Coleman but out-targeted him seven to five. Another positive for Pryor is that he matches up with Shareece Wright this week, per our FantasyLabs Matchups tool. Wright finished with a PFF grade below 50 two out of the last three seasons.
WR – Corey Coleman
A rookie who struggled in the preseason, Coleman now faces cornerback Jimmy Smith, who when healthy has flashed shutdown ability. Following Coleman’s first NFL performance against the Eagles, PFF has ranked him as the NFL’s 93rd receiver. He’s still very much learning how to play in the NFL.
WR – Andrew Hawkins
Hawkins is the clear WR3 on this team, but it seems very unlikely that he will have actual fantasy relevance. While he was targeted three times last week, he ended the game with no receptions. Unless Hawkins carves out a larger role with McCown at quarterback, he can be ignored.
TE – Gary Barnidge
The moment all of the Barnidge truthers have been waiting for: McCown’s return. Barnidge averaged seven more PPR points per game with McCown than without him in 2015.
Not only did Barnidge average more points per game with McCown, but he also averaged 22 PPR points per game against the Ravens in 2015. Barnidge looks like a strong play this week, with eight FanDuel Pro Trends.
News Updates
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