Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, highlights his favorite NFL props at PrizePicks on the Fantasy Flex Podcast each Friday with Chris Raybon.
PrizePicks is a daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — that offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Davis Mills Over 185.5 Pass Yards
Mills is coming off what could end up being the best game of his career with 312 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against the Patriots. Now he gets to face a weak Colts secondary with Tyrod Taylor’s potential Week 7 return looming, giving Mills extra motivation to play well this week.
I’m projecting the rookie for closer to 210 yards and would play this over up to 190.5 yards.
Darrel Williams Over 46.5 Rush Yards
Williams should inherit much of the workload from Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who averaged 15 carries between Weeks 1-4. I don’t expect Jerrick McKinnon to eat into Williams’ rush share much, though I do expect the two to potentially split pass-catching snaps. As a result, I’m projecting DW to get around 13-14 rush attempts, which should be enough to clear 46.5 yards.
I’m projecting Williams for closer to 53-55 yards with a fairly high floor.
Darrel Henderson Under 2.5 Receptions
Normally, this would be a sound line, but the game script with the Rams as 10-point favorites against the Giants will make it less likely he clears it — this is a small sample size, but his receiving usage goes up in negative game scripts and down in positive game scripts:
- 6 targets when Rams are trailing by 3+ (49 dropbacks)
- 5 targets when Rams are leading by 3+ (67 dropbacks)
CeeDee Lamb Under 75.5 Rec Yards
Bill Belichick always does a great job of slowing down the opposing team’s best player, so I bet he keys in on Lamb with Amari Cooper playing at less than 100% while the Cowboys lean on Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard and Dalton Schultz again this week. I’m projecting Lamb for closer to 68.5 yards.
T.J. Hockenson Under 52.5 Red Yards
This seems 7-8 yards too high as defenses have been putting more resources on Hock, who has also been playing through a knee injury. Plus, Jared Goff has leaned on wide receiver Amon Ra-St. Brown more, along with running back D’Andre Swift.